Predicting Potential Sleepers for the 2016 NFL Season
According to Odds Shark, the nine teams with the best shot at making a Super Bowl run all went to the playoffs last season. However, the Cowboys, Lions, Ravens and Colts, who all made the 2014 playoffs, combined for a 24-40 record in 2015.
Looking over the 20 teams that missed the postseason last year, we'll make a case for why seven could surprise in 2016. For some, it was the addition of personnel or coaches. For others, it's their strength of schedule.
The teams are listed in order by predicted 2016 records.
San Francisco 49ers
1 of 7
2015 Record: 5-11
In 2014, the 49ers were 8-8 under Jim Harbaugh, and the team regressed under Jim Tomsula last season. Of course, San Francisco lost key contributors in Perrish Cox, Chris Culliver, Dan Skuta, Frank Gore, Mike Iupati, Patrick Willis, Chris Borland, Justin Smith and Anthony Davis.
New head coach Chip Kelly, who turned the Eagles around after taking over in 2013 after having great success at Oregon, will have to navigate a highly competitive NFC West. However, unlike the disastrous 2015, only one star player, guard Alex Boone, left the squad. Right tackle Anthony Davis is also returning.
Kelly brought along Jerry Azzinaro, a defensive line coach who spent time at both Oregon and Philadelphia, to help him in San Francisco. He coached the 49ers' last two first-round picks, defensive linemen Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, at Oregon.
At QB, Kelly has two options: Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick.
Gabbert may be labeled a bust in some circles, but is he much worse than Brock Osweiler? The numbers from 2015 are similar, and Gabbert is still just 26.
Since leaving Eugene, Kelly hasn't had a dual-threat option under center (Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley and Sam Bradford), but now he does with Kaepernick if he wants to go in that direction.
2016 Prediction: 6-10
Chicago Bears
2 of 7
2015 Record: 6-10
The Bears' defensive personnel in Vic Fangio's first year as the team's coordinator looked like one of the worst in the league. And after quarterback Jay Cutler's 18-interception season, hopes were not high for John Fox's first year as the Bears' head coach. Add in first-round receiver Kevin White's season-ending injury, and things looked bleaker still.
However, finishing 6-10 wasn't a bad result, and many of their losses to playoff teams were close (Packers, Vikings, Broncos, Redskins).
On the defensive line, they added two explosive ends in Akiem Hicks (free agency) and Jonathan Bullard (steal in the draft). They also drafted Leonard Floyd, a 6'6" pass-rusher from Georgia, in the first round and signed a pair of established inside linebackers, Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan.
On top of that, they signed Bobby Massie from Arizona to play right tackle, which allows Pro Bowler Kyle Long to kick inside to his more natural position at guard. They also drafted Cody Whitehair, who played guard for two years at Kansas State before moving to tackle, to be the starting guard opposite Long.
Every sign points to improvement—including the return of White to pair next to Alshon Jeffery—other than the running back position. After losing Matt Forte, they're hoping a rotation of Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jordan Howard can fill the void.
In a strong NFC North, it's a stretch to think the Bears could win the division. But they're frisky enough to pose problems for a number of teams.
2016 Prediction: 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 of 7
2015 Record: 6-10
The Buccaneers went from having the worst record in the NFL in 2014, which they parlayed into quarterback Jameis Winston, to going 6-10 last season. They are a young team with the arrow pointing up.
Winston, Mike Evans and Doug Martin show no signs of slowing down. On the offensive line, Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet should improve in their second seasons. The addition of guard J.R. Sweezy in free agency will also make Winston's life easier.
In 2015, Tampa Bay had no true three-down pass-rushing impact, but after signing Robert Ayers, they might have found their No. 1 edge-defender. He figures to play base end and nickel defensive tackle. Second-round pick Noah Spence looks to come off the bench as a nickel end.
The team already had Alterraun Verner at cornerback, and the Buccaneers signed Brent Grimes from Miami and drafted Vernon Hargreaves out of Florida in the first round to complete the undersized, yet talented, secondary.
Improving on the offensive line, pass rush and secondary will be key. Last season, Tampa Bay started the year 6-6 and lost three of its last four games by eight points or fewer.
2016 Prediction: 8-8
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Jacksonville Jaguars
4 of 7
2015 Record: 5-11
We've been expecting the Jaguars to break out for the past few seasons under former Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Now, the pieces are in place.
The team lucked into wideout Allen Hurns as an undrafted free agent in 2014. Allen Robinson, who also came aboard in 2014, possibly has the brightest future of any receiver in the league.
At quarterback, the team has found a high-variance passer in Blake Bortles, the third overall pick in the 2014 draft, who can throw the deep ball if nothing else. At running back, Jacksonville is pairing free-agent signing Chris Ivory with T.J. Yeldon, a 2015 second-round pick.
However, it's the defensive side of the ball that is most improved this year with Dante Fowler Jr. (No. 3 pick coming back from injury), Malik Jackson (prized free agent), Jalen Ramsey (top draft pick) and Myles Jack (fell in draft due to injury).
Between those four players and the free-agency additions of Tashaun Gipson and Prince Amukamara, you can tell why the "this year might be the year" logic finally checks out.
The schedule also looks manageable in 2016.
2016 Prediction: 8-8
New Orleans Saints
5 of 7
2015 Record: 7-9
Offensive firepower was not an issue for the Saints in 2015. If they could just improve defensively, as they finished dead last in the NFL in points allowed with 476 on the season, it's easy to see how they'd get into the wild-card race.
Well, the Saints made changes on that side of the ball.
They fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, bringing in Dennis Allen in Week 11, and the improvement was stark (31.5 PPG under Ryan, 26.8 under Allen).
The Saints drafted defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins with the 12th overall pick, who compares to Kawann Short, and safety Vonn Bell with the 61st overall pick, who could press Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd in the back end or contribute as a third safety. The team also signed Nick Fairley to play defensive tackle.
The Saints may have had the worst defensive front in the NFL last season despite having Pro Bowler Cameron Jordan rush the passer as a 4-3 end. The evolution of 2015 top-100 picks Stephone Anthony, a linebacker who made 112 tackles in 16 starts, and P.J. Williams, a cornerback who missed the season due to a hamstring tear, will also be crucial.
New Orleans is a team that has improved defensively and still has a top-five quarterback in Drew Brees. As long as he's healthy, this team will bounce back. The majority of their tough games are at home too.
2016 Prediction: 9-7
Los Angeles Rams
6 of 7
2015 Record: 7-9
Last year, the Rams had one of the fiercest defensive fronts in the league, but they didn't do enough in the passing game.
This year, they traded two seasons' worth of top draft picks for California quarterback Jared Goff. Between Goff and running back Todd Gurley, you can make a case the Rams have the best long-term backfield outlook in the league.
On the defensive line, the team returns starters Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn, who all have Pro Bowl potential. The team let Chris Long go, but William Hayes is a capable replacement. The free-agent additions of Dominique Easley and Quinton Coples, two former first-round picks, will add depth.
In the defensive backfield, they lost Janoris Jenkins to the Giants but retained Trumaine Johnson.
Overall, their defense is mostly where it was last year, and it could be better. Their offense will be greatly improved if Goff is able to throw more than 11 touchdowns, which is what the Rams did in 2015 when they finished last in the NFL in the statistic.
After beating every divisional team at least once last year, including the Seahawks twice and the Cardinals in Glendale, Los Angeles is on the rise.
2016 Prediction: 9-7
New York Giants
7 of 7
2015 Record: 6-10
The Giants had been stagnant the past several seasons under Tom Coughlin. Not anymore with new head coach Ben McAdoo.
They re-signed defensive lineman Jason Pierre-Paul and brought in tackle Damon Harrison of the crosstown Jets, along with defensive end Olivier Vernon. That line, once a hindrance, has depth with second-year end Owamagbe Odighizuwa, fourth-year tackle Johnathan Hankins, third-year tackle Jay Bromley and former Texans tackle Louis Nix.
The Giants replaced Prince Amukamara with Janoris Jenkins (free agent) and Eli Apple (first-round pick). At safety, after adding Landon Collins in the second round last season, they drafted Darian Thompson in the third round.
On offense, second-year offensive tackle Ereck Flowers, who was limited by injuries last season, could take a big step forward in 2016. Sterling Shepard, a 5'10" receiver who dominated every Big 12 cornerback he faced head-to-head, will add depth to the passing game, especially if Victor Cruz isn't able to contribute.
Shepard found the perfect landing spot, as Eli Manning and McAdoo have built that offense into a quick-strike system. In Green Bay, McAdoo's Packers had Randall Cobb, and he might have found his version in New York.
The NFC East is wide-open, and the Giants have been known to go on surprising runs.
2016 Prediction: 9-7
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