Preseason College Football Rankings 2016: Predicting Amway Poll's Top 25
Like it or not, preseason college football polls are important.
They aren't perfect. They're largely based on brand-name recognition, returning starters and late-season momentum from the previous year. Yet they shape the way teams are perceived ahead of the season, and when it comes to bowl and playoff placement, perception is everything.
All four teams that wound up in the College Football Playoff started the season in the Top 20 of the Amway Coaches Poll at the beginning of the season.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Of those four, Alabama (No. 3) and Michigan State (No. 6) were in the Top 10. However, Clemson (No. 12) and Oklahoma (No. 19) were in the Nos. 10-20 range.
Here's a look at how the Amway Poll might appear when the preseason rankings drop, along with a look at some teams that should be ranked in the Nos. 10-20 range and might just compete to be the next team to make the leap into the playoff.
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Clemson |
| 3 | Michigan |
| 4 | Oklahoma |
| 5 | Florida State |
| 6 | LSU |
| 7 | Ohio State |
| 8 | Tennessee |
| 9 | Notre Dame |
| 10 | Stanford |
| 11 | Ole Miss |
| 12 | USC |
| 13 | Houston |
| 14 | Michigan State |
| 15 | Baylor |
| 16 | Georgia |
| 17 | Oklahoma State |
| 18 | Oregon |
| 19 | TCU |
| 20 | Washington |
| 21 | Iowa |
| 22 | UCLA |
| 23 | Louisville |
| 24 | Miami |
| 25 | North Carolina |
Houston
Houston is going to be one of the most interesting teams to see in preseason polls because perception is especially important for a Group of Five school. No one from outside the Power Five conferences have crashed the College Football Playoff party, but the Cougars have the makeup to test that streak.
Tom Herman's team finished the season last year with an impressive 38-24 win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl to cap off a 13-1 campaign.
The Cougars aren't just a mid-major with the ability to light up the scoreboard, either. They beat the Seminoles by holding star running back Dalvin Cook to 33 yards on 18 carries.
Houston faces two obstacles that could keep it from taking a run this season: the Oklahoma Sooners and complacency.
The latter shouldn't be an issue with Herman at the helm. Although it would be easy for a team to settle on last year's accomplishment, the rising head coach has instilled a culture that's only looking forward to proving itself again.
“We’re not allowed to say ‘Florida State.’ We’re not allowed to say ’Peach Bowl.’ We’re not allowed to wear any Peach Bowl gear during any team activity or in any team setting,” Herman said, per Guerin Emig of Tulsa World. “We don’t even refer to last year’s team as ‘we.’ Like, ‘Do you remember when we did that?’ No. It’s, ‘Do you remember when that team did that?’ Because ‘we’ haven’t done anything yet.”
It's a good thing they're not caught up in that success. They start the season with as tough a matchup as a team could ask for in the Sooners. Oklahoma is a likely Top Five candidate in the preseason rankings, with a triumvirate of Baker Mayfield, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon spearheading the offense and seven returning starters on defense.
However, if Herman and Co. can find a way to spring the upset in a game that will be played in Houston, it's a battle against themselves until they take on Louisville in a Thursday night game on November 17.
The likelihood of a Group of Five conference team ever getting into the playoff seems low. But with a ton of talent returning for a great coach and a manageable schedule with some chances to prove themselves, the Cougars are one of the most intriguing teams entering the season.
Oklahoma State
Going back to the preseason rankings last season, Oklahoma made the biggest leap into the playoffs. That's because it wasn't the favorite in the Big 12 leading up to the season (TCU was).
The Sooners were largely an unknown commodity. They had a unit that was undoubtedly going to be strong coming back. Oklahoma ranked No. 1 in defensive S&P+ from Football Outsiders in 2014 but had a stagnant offense.
In stepped Lincoln Riley, who reignited the passing game with Baker Mayfield while allowing Perine and Mixon to still be nearly unstoppable once they got going.
This year, the Sooners play the role of favorites, and the surprise conference winners might come in the shape of their in-state rivals from Stillwater.
According to OddsShark, the Pokes are tied with TCU for the second-best chance to win the conference behind the other half of Bedlam.
In this case, we know that the Oklahoma State offense is going to come back strong. The offense that was 22nd in S&P+ last season only needs to replace quarterback J.W. Walsh and wide receiver David Glidden.
Losing Walsh might be a blessing in disguise, as it means that Mason Rudolph will take over the offense full-time this season. As PFF College noted, he's among the best deep-ball throwers in the game:
So that leaves only one side of the ball for the Cowboys to worry about heading into this season. The difference between this Oklahoma State team and Oklahoma in 2015 might just be that there isn't a scheme change that can magically fix what ailed the unit last season.
Bringing back seven starters should help the cause, but the truth is that the Cowboys are going to have a great chance to win a lot of shootouts. The defense won't need to be stellar to surprise a lot of teams this season, Oklahoma State has just as much firepower as anyone outside of the conference in Oklahoma and college football is simply too weird to put too much stock into the favorite.
Washington
When we look back at preseason rankings, we're going to have one of two reactions to the Huskies' ranking.
Either we'll be impressed that some had the foresight to project that a 7-6 team from last season was ready to break through, or we'll laugh like we didn't buy into the hype all along.
Head coach Chris Petersen would rather not see his team get this kind of hype. He had an interesting analogy for his team about the massive amount of media (and likely coaches') hype placed on the Huskies at Pac-12 media days, per Kevin Gemmell of ESPN.com:
"We have as much hype as the new Pokemon game that nobody knows nothing about. That's us. … Last year the preseason hype was we wouldn't win four games. And they were dead wrong. I'm really scared that you guys [the media] will be dead wrong again because you usually are. That's why I put no stock in it.
"
There's a lot of things to like about Washington. Not least among them is a defense that figures to be a stalwart once again. Washington finished last season No. 1 in the Pac-12 in yards allowed per play on defense and brings back the majority of the talent on that side of the ball.
On the offensive side, the Huskies have to be encouraged by the play of sophomore Jake Browning last season and appear to be ready to take the next step.
In a conference that could conceivably put five teams in the preseason poll without cracking the Top 10, Washington could be a leading candidate to actually win the conference and get its shot at the playoffs.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
