5 Surprises We Could See on 2016 MLB Trade Deadline Day
Days before August 1's MLB trade deadline, two All-Star pitchers have already changed leagues.
The Boston Red Sox kicked off the summer activity by acquiring Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres. While it was hardly a surprise to see them locate another arm, teams typically don't find 27-year-olds under team control.
After weeks of asking whether the New York Yankees are buyers or sellers, they offered a hint by sending Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs for a loot of talent. Top shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres alone is a great return for a two-month reliever rental, but the Bronx Bombers also got back Adam Warren and two other prospects for their troubles.
Chapman to the Cubs shouldn't have stunned anyone, as the National League Central leaders were on the market for a left-handed reliever. The return, however, was more than even Yankees general manager Brian Cashman could have reasonably expected.
Are there any more surprises on the horizon before Monday? It wouldn't truly be a surprise if anyone knew, but let's try to play psychic anyway and predict some abrupt moves that could occur this week.
Chicago White Sox Sell Chris Sale
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Well, going ballistic on clothing is one way to set the rumor mill on fire. Chris Sale's bizarre meltdown has created an opening for the Chicago White Sox to move their franchise ace.
After this year's American League All-Star gutted his team's throwback jerseys with a knife, he escalated the tension by pointing the figure at manager Robin Ventura, per the Chicago Tribune's Steve Rosenbloom:
"Robin is the one who has to fight for us in that department. If the players don’t feel comfortable 100 percent about what we are doing to win the game, and we have an easy fix -- it was as easy as hanging up another jersey and everyone was fine. For them to put business first over winning, that’s when I lost it.
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According to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball, the White Sox are seeking a five-prospect haul in return for Sale. That may seem like a lot, but their in-state rivals just coughed up three minor leaguers and a competent major league arm for a reliever.
An executive expressed confidence to Heyman of someone meeting that lofty asking price, but the person was less certain of Chicago going through with ousting the 27-year-old southpaw, who sports a 3.18 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. Given the escalating animosity and the White Sox's below-average farm system, they should do more than their due diligence to entertain a split.
Bleacher Report's Scott Miller detailed the Los Angeles Dodgers missing their window by not landing Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto to support Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke last year. With Kershaw hurt and Greinke gone, Sale could be their solution.
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Dodgers would be willing to part with top pitching prospect Julio Urias, whom they would not sell for Hamels last summer. If the White Sox get the 19-year-old phenom and other goodies from Los Angeles' loaded farm system, they should create a brighter future and more jersey-friendly dugout environment.
Cleveland Indians Go All in
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The Cleveland Indians have made the postseason three times this millennium, and they haven't won a playoff game since the 2007 American League Championship Series during which they squandered a 3-1 edge.
Now they're lounging more comfortably than anyone in the AL, grasping a 5.5-game lead in the AL Central. Nobody else in the division owns a positive scoring margin, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 93.0 percent chance of claiming the grouping. They could stand pat and stay in the driver's seat.
Yet their sights should be set higher in search of their first World Series title since 1948. Cleveland should reach the divisional round and ride Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar to the finish line. While a stacked rotation goes a long way, it's not a golden ticket to a championship.
Cleveland has other issues, including a bullpen with few reliable options before closer Cody Allen. Even with their explosive rotation, the Indians need another late-inning reliever or two.
The offense—which has proved a pleasant surprise behind MVP-caliber production from Francisco Lindor, major power gains from Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli, and an improbable breakout from little-known rookie Tyler Naquin—may not need an upgrade if Michael Brantley returns soon. However, there's a glaring hole at catcher, where Yan Gomes batted .165/.198/.313 before landing on the disabled list.
It's no wonder they're linked to Jonathan Lucroy. The well-rounded catcher represents a perfect upgrade, and the Milwaukee Brewers can also help Cleveland's bullpen woes. With a deep farm system and young major league core, the Indians are close enough to make the big move.
Knowing how fleeting these opportunities are, don't be surprised if the Indians also locate a prominent reliever elsewhere or cover their bases with a power-hitting corner outfielder.
Think of them as this year's version of the New York Mets, who made more noise than anticipated by attaining Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline after already sprucing up their bench and bullpen. The Cubs overpaid for Chapman because they saw October baseball on the horizon, so the Indians should realize there's only one thing left to do: win the whole thing.
New York Yankees Shift into Buyers
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The Yankees have already won the deadline by fleecing the Cubs for Chapman. They're also winning baseball games, lessening their wild-card deficit to four games at 52-48.
Don't assume the Yankees are raising the white flag by trading their closer. According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, Cashman still won't identify as a buyer or seller, instead seeking whatever opportunities may arise.
"We’re not playing in a narrow-minded world," Cashman said. “We want to be open to any and all ideas—buy, sell, long, short. It’s in our best interests to be creative and open-minded, not just now.”
A team with their finances faces far less pressure than the Oakland Athletics to dismantle their roster and start over. Even if they finish below .500 for the first time since 1992, a rebuild isn't happening any time soon.
They obviously won't take on any expiring contracts, and Carlos Beltran may leave town with Baseball Prospectus' playoff probability still at 8.6 percent. But why not see if anyone available can help next year and beyond?
The Texas Rangers were seemingly taking that approach when they acquired Hamels while down in the standings, but the ace lifted them to an unlikely division crown. Perhaps the Evil Empire is dreaming of Sale, Julio Teheran or Chris Archer—or one of the Tampa Bay Rays' other young starters—orchestrating the same rally. Their aging offense could also use a new cornerstone such as Ryan Braun or Carlos Gonzalez.
Aside from Beltran, they don't hold many typical trade chips. They'd either have to sell low on an intriguing, team-controlled player (Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi) or find a partner with equally deep pockets to take on an expensive veteran. There's also no law stating a team must officially declare as a buyer or seller, so the Yankees could simultaneously pawn off spare short-term parts while gearing up for a 2017 playoff push.
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Another Star Reliever (or Two) Gets Traded
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Relievers leave a smaller imprint than regular position players and starting pitchers, but top ones remain highly desirable commodities.
Nearly eight months before the Chapman trade, Boston sent four prospects to San Diego for Craig Kimbrel. Upon watching the Kansas City Royals make two straight World Series appearances with a limited rotation and dominant bullpen, the Yankees and Red Sox engaged in an arms race to stockpile elite relievers.
With the starting pitching options so limited, contenders will turn their sights on a significant late-inning upgrade.
Anybody with an expendable reliever better take notice. Guys like Jeanmar Gomez, Jeremy Jeffress, Ryan Madson and Tyler Clippard are all sensible choices but not significant impact players. Despite their playoff aspirations, two teams on the border of contention should strike while the market is hot.
According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Pittsburgh Pirates closer Mark Melancon becomes a free agent this offseason. The Buccos aren't big enough spenders to retain the 31-year-old, who has registered a 1.51 ERA and 30 saves this season.
They're still in play for the playoffs, but the best they can do is make another Wild Card Game appearance with the Cubs controlling the NL Central. Trading Melancon is the prudent long-term move for a franchise without the luxury of taking the risky path.
As for the guys who made relief pitchers cool again, the Royals' slim playoff hopes have soured by losing six of their last seven. Now's the perfect time to deal Wade Davis, who holds a 1.10 ERA despite regressing strikeout and walk rates (8.54 and 3.31 per nine innings, respectively.)
The odds of Kansas City dealing Davis are slim, per the Kansas City Star's Rustin Dodd, but the Royals should give up their repeat aspirations and realize the 30-year-old closer won't stay this good forever. If he does, his salary will soon compensate him accordingly.
Look for one, maybe both, of those All-Star closers to change locations by next week.
San Diego Padres Find Taker for Matt Kemp
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There are plenty of reasons to shy away from Matt Kemp. The 31-year-old has lost several steps on the basepaths and outfield. His .282 on-base percentage is even more alarming. Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, this depreciating package costs $21.75 million in each of the next three seasons.
He's also hitting .261 with 23 home runs, 69 RBI and a .493 slugging percentage. From July 16-22, he went deep six times in as many games, giving the Padres a strong selling point to teams desperate for an offensive uptick.
There's little buzz around Kemp, but San Diego is one of this summer's clearest sellers. If anyone inquired, general manager A.J. Preller would likely gladly flip the former MVP candidate he acquired before the 2015 campaign. He has already sold Kimbrel and Pomeranz shortly after first landing them.
Will anyone bite? They shouldn't, but the Padres knew of his high cost and imperfections before taking him off the Dodgers' hand. New to the job, Preller had big moves in mind. Now he must find an eager front office hoping to make a splash.
With so many teams in discussions for Jay Bruce, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, it's clear defense alone won't deter clubs from purchasing a slugger. It's the abysmal on-base skills and bloated contract, but a bounce-back on the first front would make Kemp's salary bearable.
Unloading Kemp was a pipe dream after he hit .186 in May, but it's now a feasible scenario following several weeks of sensational results.
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