MLB Trade Deadline 2016: Complete Predictions 1 Week from Deadline Day
A year ago, Yoenis Cespedes, Gerardo Parra, David Price and Ben Revere were some of the biggest names to change hands at the trade deadline. This year, Chris Archer, Jay Bruce, Wade Davis and Chris Sale are among the biggest being bandied about.
While we've already seen some deals go down—most notably the trades of Drew Pomeranz and Brad Ziegler to Boston—there are more to come. If this year's deadline is anything like last year, there will be plenty of moves to debate and dissect.
Not every team is represented here, but that doesn't mean your favorite club won't swing a deadline deal. Here you'll find our predictions for what will happen between now and the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.
The Giants Will Trade for a Reliever...But It Won't Be a Big Name
While the Giants "are casting a wide net for impact relievers," according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco lacks the prospects to swing a deal for the biggest names on the market.
Case in point: Schulman wrote that the team is "getting radio silence" from New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, who has Andrew Miller as la ate-inning option to dangle in a trade. Other teams simply have more prospect capital to offer than the Giants.
That doesn't mean the National League West leaders won't be able to add to their relief corps at the deadline, but it will not be an elite reliever that joins their ranks.
Someone from the second tier of available arms—the Minnesota Twins' Fernando Abad, the Philadelphia Phillies' Jeanmar Gomez and David Hernandez, the Arizona Diamondbacks' Daniel Hudson and the Los Angeles Angels' Huston Street—will wind up joining Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo and Hunter Strickland at the back end of the Giants pen.
Prediction: The Giants trade for Huston Street, sending a package including SS Lucius Fox to the Angels
The Indians Will Make a Bold Move
Cleveland has a real chance to not only clinch its first division title since 2007, but to make a deep run into the playoffs. For the Indians to pull it off, however, they're going to need some outside help.
I suggested a deal with Milwaukee that would bring the Tribe a catcher (Jonathan Lucroy) and a reliever (Will Smith) on Saturday, a scenario Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel believes the two sides have been discussing—though it's unclear which reliever might be atop Cleveland's wish list.
Perhaps the Indians are content with Roberto Perez and Chris Gimenez behind the plate, as Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal suggested, and are focused on adding only a big-time reliever. Aside from Milwaukee's trio of late-inning arms (Tyler Thornburg, Jeremy Jeffress and Smith), Kansas City's Wade Davis, Los Angeles' Huston Street and New York's Andrew Miller could be potential targets, among others.
The Indians have options and, as Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer pointed out, more than enough intriguing prospects (including outfielders Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer) to make a major addition at the trade deadline.
It'd be surprising—and somewhat disappointing—if they didn't.
Prediction: The Indians trade for Jonathan Lucroy and Will Smith in a deal highlighted by one of the team's top outfield prospects, either Clint Frazier or Bradley Zimmer
The Padres Will Trade Andrew Cashner
Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball heard that as many as 10 teams, including Baltimore, Detroit, Houston, Miami, San Francisco and Texas, are in on San Diego starter Andrew Cashner.
The 29-year-old is resigned to the fact that he'll be wearing a different uniform come Aug. 2.
"I know I'm going to be traded," Cashner recently told Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. "It's just part of the game, part of where the season's at."
With the Padres going nowhere this year and Cashner set to become a free agent after the season, a trade makes sense, especially in a market that lacks multiple quality starting options. Even with Cashner's shaky injury history and mediocre numbers (4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), he's a valuable trade chip to play.
Prediction: Andrew Cashner gets traded to Baltimore in exchange for a pair of mid-level prospects, including LHP Chris Lee
The Rays Will Trade at Least One Starting Pitcher
The trade winds have been swirling around Tampa Bay's rotation for more than a month, and they are only going to pick up speed over the next week, with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reporting the Rays will wait until right before the deadline to make a move, with at least 10 teams in the mix.
While ace Chris Archer remains the team's biggest trade chip to play, there's no reason for Tampa Bay to sell low on him. Thus, it seems far more likely that Matt Moore and/or Jake Odorizzi finds himself toeing the rubber somewhere other than Tropicana Field next month.
Right-handed swingman Erasmo Ramirez and the versatile Steve Pearce, who can play first base or a corner outfield spot, are also drawing interest, according to Topkin.
Prediction: Jake Odorizzi gets traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a package built around OF Alex Verdugo; Steve Pearce gets traded to Texas in exchange for hard-throwing RHP Connor Sadzeck.
The Red Sox Will Trade for Another Starter and Reliever
Even after adding Brad Ziegler and Drew Pomeranz, Boston could still use a reliable innings-eater in the rotation and another quality reliever to bolster an injury-riddled bullpen.
The Red Sox still have plenty of depth down on the farm to facilitate a deal, one that won't cost them the likes of Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi, the team's two best prospects.
Minnesota's Ervin Santana might be the most reliable innings-eater available, and as we looked at last month, Boston is one of the few teams that can absorb all $27 million left on his deal, which runs through 2018 and would limit the team's cost in prospects.
Craig Kimbrel (knee surgery) and Koji Uehara (pectoral strain) will both eventually return to action, but it wouldn't hurt to bring in another live arm. Minnesota's Fernando Abad, Atlanta's Hunter Cervenka and Ian Krol and Colorado's Jake McGee are among the second-tier relievers the team could target.
Prediction: Boston trades for Ervin Santana and Fernando Abad, sending a trio of mid-level pitching prospects, including RHP Marc Brakeman, back to the Twins.
The Royals Will Trade Wade Davis and More
Kansas City can't afford to part with the prospects it would take to add the starting pitching it needs to jump over Cleveland and Detroit in the AL Central or the five teams ahead of the defending World Champions in the wild-card race.
Rather than take on a bloated contract (like the one belonging to former Royals starter Ervin Santana) or throwing money at a mediocre starter (like Jeremy Hellickson in the offseason), Kansas City's best move would be to sell off pieces now for young, controllable arms that can help in 2017 and beyond.
Both Heyman and Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star recently suggested that selling was a possibility for the Royals. There's no bigger trade chip the team could play than All-Star closer Wade Davis, who is under team control through next season on a reasonable $10 million option.
A team like Washington, which is known to be scouring the market for a big-time reliever, would match up well with the Royals. While the odds of landing top prospect Lucas Giolito are slim to none, a deal that includes pitching prospects Erick Fedde and Austin Voth, for example, could intrigue Kansas City.
Davis isn't the only player of value the Royals could potentially trade. Texas has interest in starter Edinson Volquez, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, while designated hitter Kendrys Morales could be appealing to a team looking to add a veteran bat.
Kansas City GM Dayton Moore spent years building the Royals into a legitimate contender. He'll be able to put the team in a better position to contend again next season by making some difficult moves this season.
Prediction: Wade Davis gets traded to Washington in exchange for a four-player package that includes RHP Erick Fedde.
The White Sox Will Trade Chris Sale
It's not something the White Sox want to do—no team ever wants to trade its ace, especially one on a team-friendly deal—but there's no quicker way for a team to land a massive influx of talent than by trading a star player.
The White Sox need an influx of new blood and Chris Sale's star shines brightest on Chicago's South Side, even after his five-game suspension for cutting up the team's throwback jerseys.
A team will have to be willing to surrender five top prospects to get a deal done, according to Heyman, though it's fair to assume that youngsters already in the big leagues, like Texas' Jurickson Profar or Nomar Mazara, would be welcome additions to any package.
Speaking of the Rangers, they're one of three teams, along with the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers, with both a need for a front-of-the-rotation starter and the prospect capital to keep White Sox GM Rick Hahn on the phone.
The lack of available quality starting pitching, both now and in the upcoming free-agent class, will compel another GM to sell the farm for the 27-year-old southpaw.
Prediction: Chris Sale gets traded to Texas for a package that includes 3B/OF Joey Gallo and OF prospect Lewis Brinson.