Fantasy Football Risks & Busts You Need to Avoid in Your Draft

Predicting players that are going to bust is perhaps near the top of the depth chart in terms of priority prior to drafting your fantasy football team.

However, risk is more subjective as we all have our own risk/reward threshold. Whether we choose to take a chance on a player that has a few red flags, but you can't shake the talent, is up to you. Some players take a more conservative approach, which is also OK.

There is a time and a place to draft all players, of course. Risky players are still commodities, though there may be safer options nearby, while busts also have value—just not where they are currently going in drafts.

Here we explore four busts and six risky players that will hopefully make you think twice before you lock in your selection and quite possibly hinder your chances at winning your fantasy championship.

Bust: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

It's very easy to get excited about Carolina Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin this season. After his breakout rookie season, prospective owners are eager to draft the No. 1 target of quarterback Cam Newton, the MVP of the 2015 season.

However, his current price tag of WR20 is just silly.

If you look back at Benjamin's rookie season to where the Panthers are now, it's almost like they're two different teams. During his rookie season, Benjamin and the Panthers were a seven-win team. As a result, there was a fair amount of garbage time for Benjamin to rack up the stats.

Here is Benjamin's 2015 final stat line: 142 targets, 73 receptions, 1,008 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. This was good enough to be the WR15 in points per reception leagues that season, though he had 11 drops.

A formidable line for sure, but next I'm going to ask you to look at his fourth-quarter stats: 43 targets, 27 receptions, 415 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

This equates to over 46 percent of his fantasy production coming from the fourth quarter, when the Panthers were behind in games.

The Panthers are far more based around the run at this point, and their defense helps them stay ahead in ball games.

Getting back to Benjamin's drops, while an arbitrary statistic, Benjamin did have issues with catching dating back to college, so this is nothing new.

Keeping in mind his drops, projected game script in 2016 and fellow wide receiver Devin Funchess entering his second season, Benjamin is more of a WR3 than WR2 in 2016.

Risk: Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman is one of those players that defines the term "risk" entering the 2016 season.

While we've seen him perform at a high level in points-per-reception leagues for so long, 2016 is a different animal.

If you weren't already aware, Edelman missed seven games in 2015 due to a foot injury. Not only that, but he underwent two procedures to fix the issue. Fortunately for him, he was taken off the PUP list in early August and began practicing with the team. However, just a couple of days later, Edelman left practice with what turned out to be a minor injury and returned to practice the next day. While it was only minor, Edelman did express frustration after getting hurt by slamming his helmet down. 

What makes me wary of Edelman is the type of receiver he is. He is a smaller slot receiver who is relied on by the Patriots as an extension of the run game. Not only that, but footwork is key for a receiver like Edelman.

Also, keep in mind that the Patriots will be without quarterback Tom Brady for four games due to suspension, (or five if you count the bye week) as you attempt to rack up wins to secure a spot in the fantasy playoffs. As a result, the Patriots will be starting backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. While I'm a fan of Garoppolo, he is no Brady. This could lead to a drop in production over those four games.

We also haven't seen Edelman play in any preseason games to this point and it ponders the question if he'll play at all.

Edelman is still a fantasy asset, no doubt. However, at his current WR21 price tag in points-per-reception leagues with all the factors in play, he represents a fair amount of risk as your squad's WR2. For example, I'd rather draft New York Jets wide receiver Eric Decker over Edelman and not feel bad about it whatsoever.

Risk: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Gus Ruelas/Associated Press

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott could either end the season as the No. 1 overall running back or assist in making your fantasy team suffer. Given his current ADP of the 12th player off the board in points-per-reception leagues, that's quite a lot to invest in a rookie running back.

Yes, the Cowboys have the greatest offensive line in the history of forever or whatever, but he is still a rookie.

The Cowboys also have fellow running backs Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden. Though likely not much of a threat to Elliott's overall workload, they're not exactly slouches either and have a place in the running back mix.

Outside of him being a rookie, there are two other red flags:

One, Elliott is still in the mix of a domestic violence allegation. This is not good news at all. Of course, this presents an awkward moment because this is obviously bigger than fantasy football, but it does have potential ramifications. While the chances of Elliott missing time due to this appear to be slim considering we haven't heard anything about it, it would deal a huge blow to his value as a first-round pick in fantasy drafts.

Second, Elliott suffered an injury to his hamstring this preseason. Those dreaded soft tissue injuries are bad news for players, especially running backs. As numberFire pointed out in a tweet, 37.1 percent of running backs who suffer soft tissue injuries in the preseason miss at least one game during the regular season with the same injury.

Be safe with your first-round draft pick. While it can't necessarily win you your league, it can certainly make you lose it.

Bust: Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles was a fantasy darling last season, finishing as the QB4 in fantasy after not even being drafted, really.

While that was all fine and dandy, it came mostly during garbage time.

Out of his 4,428 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns and 18 interceptions, 3,293 of those yards and 25 touchdowns came in the 11 games in which the Jaguars lost.

This season projects to be a (hopefully) better season for the Jaguars with more weapons on defense via free agency, the 2016 NFL draft and 2015's first-round draft pick Dante Fowler returning. On the offensive side of the ball, the Jaguars added running back Chris Ivory to go along with T.J. Yeldon.

Going as the QB10 in the eighth round right now, I'd much rather have quarterbacks such as Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Tyrod Taylor (to name a few) over Bortles in 2016.

Plus, you should be waiting in drafts to take a quarterback as there are very few worth taking before the ninth round in terms of value.

Risk: Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Like Elliott, New York Jets running back Matt Forte has been dealing with a hamstring injury during training camp and into the preseason.

While Forte has been a gem to own especially in points per reception formats for close to a decade, he is still a 30-year-old running back with over 2,500 touches in his storied career.

Where the risk lies is, like most players, his ADP. Going as the RB16 (a fringe RB1) in points-per-reception leagues, I'm not sure it's entirely clear to drafters that this situation is a bit murkier than it appears to be.

In addition to Forte, the Jets have fellow running backs Bilal Powell and Khiry Robinson to round out the running back depth chart.

Not only that, but the Jets offense is mainly focused around wide receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall.

I'm cautious to draft Forte as high as he is going because it's unlikely he is still a 200-carry back. Also, Powell, who got an eerily similar contract to Forte, is known for his pass-catching skills. In the past, Forte has always been "the guy," but that may not necessarily be the case anymore.

Factoring his age, and the other running backs on the roster who could take away a fair amount of touches, Forte represents a fair amount of risk as a high-end RB2.

Risk: Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

This is a fairly simple concept that I'm sure most people will agree on: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon is a risk.

Though far from breaking news, it still needs to be addressed.

Gordon is quite possibly the No. 1 overall boom-or-bust candidate heading into 2016. Being drafted as the WR30 right now, Gordon is being drafted as a WR3. This could either end up as a steal or a wasted draft pick.

We've seen what Gordon can do, finishing just five points shy of being the No. 1 overall wide receiver in points per reception leagues in 2013 in 14 games. However, Gordon failed to score a touchdown in the five games he played in 2014.

In fact, over the last two seasons, those five games have been the only ones Gordon has played in.

No matter who the player is, it's always a risk drafting a guy who's played in just over 15 percent of his games the last two seasons. Couple that with him being on a team with a quarterback looking to resurrect his career, an ultra-talented rookie wide receiver in Corey Coleman and (believe it or not) Terrelle Pryor coming on, it creates an uneasy feeling.

Gordon should be drafted because we know what he is capable of. But keep in mind that he could end up being a wasted draft choice.

Bust: Jeremy Langford, RB, Chicago Bears

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Throughout this offseason leading up to kickoff, I've written about Chicago Bears running back Jeremy Langford in almost every piece and not for any good reasons.

It's still insane to me that this guy is going as an RB2 in points-per-reception drafts.

I'm not a fan of regurgitating the same information, so I'll make this short, sweet and to the point.

Langford was probably the worst running back in football last season. No joke. Did he rack up some fantasy points? Yes. However, he was an extremely inefficient runner at under four yards per carry, was the easiest running back to tackle, had very few long runs and led all running backs in drops.

Also, Bears head coach John Fox never has a bell-cow running back on his teams.

As Dan Durkin of The Athletic points out, there has been just one season in which Fox has had a single running back carry more than 60 percent of the team's total carries.

While Langford did have a nice game against the New England Patriots in the Bears' second preseason game, I'm still not buying it.

With the draft selection of running back Jordan Howard, the Bears will go with the better of the two for the majority of the carries and this could leave Langford exposed.

Risk: Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

As Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports so eloquently put it on Twitter, it's time to start worrying about New England Patriots running back Dion Lewis.

However, Lewis' risk could diminish greatly if he were to start practicing sooner rather than later.

As Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald put it, he "wouldn't be shocked" if Lewis doesn't practice until Week 1.

Could this just be another case of some good 'ole Patriots antics?

Probably.

However, drafting a player who to this point has limited NFL experience, in addition to literally no practice time before the regular season starts, has to leave drafters with a funny feeling. 

We've seen what Lewis can do as he was the RB7 in points-per-reception leagues before he got hurt, but at his current price tag as the RB19 with the chance to start the season on the PUP list leaves a lot to be desired.

If you're willing to take the risk, by all means go for it. After all, this is the Patriots and they operate way differently than most NFL franchises.

Risk: Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

I cannot believe I'm about to say this, but Seattle Seahawks running back Christine Michael is a legitimate threat to projected starter Thomas Rawls this season.

Though he's been off the PUP list for nearly two weeks after suffering an ankle injury to the Baltimore Ravens last season, Rawls has yet to play this preseason and is likely to miss the third one, according to Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times. As a result from his two-game absence, Michael has ran wild, turning many heads in the process.

In fact, Sheil Kapadia of ESPN has reported that "by all indications" Michael will have a role when the season begins. Not good news for Rawls, obviously.

During the weeks in which Rawls played 30 or more of the Seahawks' snaps, he was a top-three fantasy running back.

Rawls was the poster child of all undrafted players last season and rightfully so. However, there comes a point where you can't just let talent like Michael sit on the bench and accumulate rust.

Also, the Seahawks drafted running back C.J. Prosise who could serve as a great receiving back in a Russell Wilson-led offense that hasn't really had a weapon like him to this point.

I don't know about you, but I'm not a fan of my RB1 having potential touches taken away from him. And that's where Rawls is going—the RB13.

Bust: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

With a full deck, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is about as good a bet as any to be the QB1 in any given seas when it's all said and done.

Roethlisberger does not have that this season.

While he does have wide receiver Antonio Brown for all 16 games, he is without wide receiver Martavis Bryant the entire season and there are question marks surrounding tight end Ladarius Green. The one silver-lining for Roethlisberger, though—running back Le'Veon Bell's suspension has been reduced from four games to three, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.

This leaves Brown, running back DeAngelo Williams (for first three games), tight end Jesse James and Sammy Coates, Markus Wheaton and potentially Eli Rogers at wide receiver.

That's not exactly the squad I'd want for a quarterback who's going sixth at the position right now.

Over the past four seasons, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has outscored Roethlisberger. Granted, Roethlisberger missed four games last season and three games in 2012. With that said, the last time Roethlisberger played a full season was 2014. That season he finished as the QB6, but had 12 games from Bryant, a full season from Bell and retired tight end Heath Miller had a career year.

Though Brown should shatter records this season, it's hard to envision Roethlisberger finishing inside the top-six at the quarterback position. I'd much rather draft New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady around the same time and play the matchups during Brady's suspension, wait and take a quarterback later (like you should be!) or draft some  bench depth like wide receivers Tyler Lockett and Michael Crabtree of the Seattle Seahawks and Oakland Raiders, respectively.

Roethlisberger is not going to return on your investment in him in 2016.

Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and Pro Football Focus. All ADP references courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Follow me on Twitter @RichardJanvrin.