Predicting the Top Candidates for the 2016-17 Selke Trophy

A month has passed since the 2016 NHL Awards ceremony was held in Las Vegas on June 22.

Last year's biggest winner was Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks. He went home with the Hart Trophy as most valuable player, the Ted Lindsay Award as MVP voted by the players and the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL's leading scorer.

Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings didn't attend but picked up two awards: the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy for sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct and the Frank J. Selke Trophy as the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.

Mike Johnston of Sportsnet has the list of the top 20 players who received Selke votes last season, when first-time honoree Kopitar beat out stiff competition from past winners like Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins, Ryan Kesler of the Anaheim Ducks and Jonathan Toews of the Chicago Blackhawks.

When I peered into my crystal ball last year at this time, I correctly named Kopitar as the winner, as well as identifying five of the top six honorees. Not bad!

Let's see if I can do as well this time around. With a mix of familiar faces and new blood, here are the players that we'll see in the mix for the Selke in June of 2017.

8. Auston Matthews: Toronto Maple Leafs

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2015-16 Stats: 36 GP, 24-22-46 (ZSC Lions, Swiss National League A)

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: no NHL experience; bronze medal at 2016 World Junior Championship; gold medals at 2014 and 2015 Under-18 Championship (via Elite Prospects)

Why He's a Candidate: As a rule, it takes some time for young players to develop the type of two-way acumen that's needed to earn Selke consideration from the voters, but Auston Matthews may turn out to be the exception.

Matthews turns 19 on September 17 and by the time the 2016-17 NHL regular season begins, he'll have already competed against men for a full season in the Swiss League in 2015-16, for Team USA at the 2016 IIHF World Championship and for Team North America at September's World Cup of Hockey.

At the World Championship in May, Matthews proved that he belonged as he led the Americans with nine points and was tied for the tournament lead with three power-play goals, from IIHF.com. Even more impressively, U.S. coach John Hynes didn't hesitate to use Matthews in critical defensive situations.

Matthews' two-way play looks like it could be his greatest strength, and he'll get every opportunity to show his stuff. The media microscope will be tightly focused on him when he joins the Toronto Maple Leafs next season.

If the Leafs are able to climb out of the NHL basement and make some noise in the Atlantic Division, award talk for Matthews could extend beyond rookie-of-the-year honors.

7. Sean Couturier: Philadelphia Flyers

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2015-16 Stats: 63 GP, 11-28-39

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Sean Couturier's best showing to date in NHL Awards voting was an eighth-place finish in Selke balloting in 2015-16.

Why He's a Candidate: After jumping straight to the NHL after being drafted in 2011, Sean Couturier has already logged 350 NHL games over five seasons. He doesn't turn 24 until December, so he'll be one of the veteran presences on Team North America at the World Cup of Hockey in September. Expect to see him make a strong showing in a shutdown role.

Right from his rookie season, Couturier has shown that he has the puck smarts to be an effective defensive center in the NHL. He's not an offensive force—he has yet to break 40 points in a season, which is why his new six-year contract comes in at a reasonable cap hit of $4.33 million per season, starting next year.

If the Philadelphia Flyers continue to improve, especially defensively, under coach Dave Hakstol, Couturier's star will rise among Selke Trophy candidates.

6. Ryan Kesler: Anaheim Ducks

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2015-16 Stats: 79 GP, 21-32-53, second in NHL with 58.5 percent faceoff success

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Ryan Kesler won the Selke Trophy with the Vancouver Canucks in 2010-11 and has been a finalist three other times. He finished third in the voting in 2015-16.

Why He's a Candidate: Ryan Kesler is known for his ferocious intensity on the ice. It's most noticeable in the faceoff circle, where he's one of the best in the league. He plays in all situations, including on the power play. Kesler is also excellent on the penalty kill, averaging 2:45 of shorthanded ice time per game in 2015-16.

Even while the Anaheim Ducks struggled during the first half of last season, their defensive game remained sound. In 2015-16, the Ducks allowed a league-low 188 goals and boasted the best penalty kill in the league, with an 87.2 percent success rate.

Anaheim's on-ice structure will change next season now that Randy Carlyle has replaced Bruce Boudreau behind the bench. Kesler should be comfortable—he started his pro career under Carlyle with the Manitoba Moose of the AHL—but there's bound to be an adjustment period for a group that has been very good in the regular season, but fallen short in the playoffs.

Unless the Ducks make a wire-to-wire run as one of the league's top teams, expect Kesler's Selke star to dim a bit following his third-place showing last year.

5. Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals

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2015-16 Stats: 75 GP, 20-50-70

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Nicklas Backstrom's best rank to date in Selke voting was a 10th-place finish in 2009-10. He was runner-up to Patrick Kane for the Calder Trophy in his rookie year, 2007-08.

Why He's a Candidate: A soft-spoken man who's content to stay out of the spotlight, Nicklas Backstrom has lived in the shadow of his flashy linemate, Alexander Ovechkin, during his career with the Washington Capitals.

When Barry Trotz took over as the Caps' coach two years ago, he made a concerted effort to develop a more well-rounded, defensively responsible playing structure for his team. Backstrom's still a great set-up man and his strong two-way play is now getting noticed. 

The Capitals allowed just 191 goals last season—second-least in the league, and had the second-best penalty kill with an 85.2 percent success rate. If Washington has another strong campaign in 2016-17, expect to hear more about Backstrom as a potential Selke finalist.

4. Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks

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2015-16 Stats: 80 GP, 28-30-58, first in NHL with 58.6 percent faceoff success

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Jonathan Toews won the Selke Trophy in 2012-13 and has been a finalist three other times. He finished fourth in voting last season. Toews also won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in 2010.

Why He's a Candidate: Jonathan Toews doesn't have the scoring sizzle of his teammate, Patrick Kane, but he's the best in the league in the faceoff circle and plays a responsible game at both ends of the ice. 

Now that Toews' Chicago Blackhawks have held onto their spot among the league's best teams for more than half a decade, it's easy to take him for granted, but he's as good as he has ever been. If anything, he showed a little more snarl in his game in 2015-16, recording career highs in hits (81) and penalty minutes (62).

Expect another solid season from one of hockey's most consistent players, who's once again likely to finish just outside the top three in Selke voting.

3. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers

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2015-16 Stats: 66 GP, 28-31-59

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Aleksander Barkov finished sixth in Selke voting in 2015-16 and second in voting for the Lady Byng Trophy, thanks to just eight penalty minutes in 66 games.

Why He's a Candidate: The new kid on the Selke block, Barkov established himself as one of hockey's best defensive forwards in just his third NHL season—and at just 20 years old. 

Like Anze Kopitar, Barkov works with a big body at 6'3" and 213 pounds. But he always seems to be on the right side of the puck, which means he rarely takes penalties. Barkov's faceoff rate was a so-so 49.2 percent last season but it was his best number yet—and faceoffs are a skill that tends to improve as players get older and more established.

In Barkov's first three NHL seasons, the Florida Panthers have climbed from 66 points in 2013-14 to 91 points in 2014-15, then to 103 points and an Atlantic Division title last season. In 2015-16, Barkov centered Florida's first line, logged more ice time than any other Panthers forward at 19:25 per game and improved his personal plus-minus from minus-four to plus-18.

If he continues his rapid improvement, Barkov could squeak in as a surprise finalist when the 2016-17 Selke nominees are announced next spring.

2. Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins

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2015-16 Stats: 80 GP, 32-36-68, eighth in NHL with 57.1 percent faceoff success

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Patrice Bergeron has won the Selke Trophy three times, in 2011-12, 2013-14 and 2014-15. He has also finished second in the voting twice—2012-13 and last season.

Why He's a Candidate: Bergeron is another perennial Selke candidate—elite in the faceoff circle, on the penalty kill and in tough defensive situations. Though the Boston Bruins failed to make the playoffs for the second straight season in 2015-16, Bergeron set new personal career highs at age 30 in goals (32), takeaways (67), hits (77) and penalty minutes (49).

With three Selke wins already, Bergeron has cemented a reputation as one of the best defensive centers of all time alongside other three-time winners Pavel Datsyuk, Guy Carbonneau and Jere Lehtinen. A fourth award would tie Begeron with the great Bob Gainey for the most Selke wins ever in an NHL career, but he'll likely have to settle for second place again in 2016-17.

1. Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings

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2015-16 Stats: 81 GP, 25-49-74, second in NHL at plus-34, 29th in NHL with 53.5 percent faceoff success

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: In 2015-16, Anze Kopitar won his first Selke Trophy and his first Lady Byng Trophy. Though he's a bull of a man at 6'3" and 224 pounds, he has just 200 total penalty minutes in his 10-season NHL career.

Before his win this year, Kopitar had received Selke votes in the five previous seasons, and had been a finalist behind winner Patrice Bergeron in both 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Why He's a Candidate: The Los Angeles Kings fizzled out quickly in the 2016 playoffs, but during the regular season they were one of the league's best defensive teams. Los Angeles gave up just 192 goals, third-best in the NHL behind the Anaheim Ducks and Washington Capitals.

At 28, Kopitar is just entering his hockey prime. He's also entering the first year of his lucrative new contract, which will pay him $14 million in real dollars in 2016-17, with a $10 million cap hit. The big Slovenian is also the Kings' new captain and has consistently been one of the best two-way centers in the league for the last several years.

With Darryl Sutter back behind the bench and the Kings bringing back almost all of their core players, expect more stellar play from Kopitar in 2016-17. Maybe next spring, he'll even attend the awards ceremony to collect his prize.

Stats from NHL.com. Awards info from Hockey Reference. Salary information from General Fanager. All faceoff stats for players who took more than 500 draws in 2015-16.