Fantasy Football 2016: Predicting the Top NFL Sleeper at Each Position

The pace may seem slow this time in the NFL offseason, but we are inching ever closer to the start of training camps and the 2016 preseason. For fantasy football enthusiasts, this means we're also drawing nearer to draft season.

Unless you're a complete novice in the fantasy football realm, you're well aware of the sleeper label. It's generally applied to a player who could provide surprisingly big fantasy production in relation to a late draft slot. These aren't the trendy names heading into draft season, but they could be incredibly valuable as the season unfolds.

Sleepers are usually found at the big fantasy positions—quarterback, wide receiver and running back—but they can be found at every position. Yes, there are even sleeper kickers.

We're going to take a look at players we believe can be the top sleepers at each fantasy position. Our choices will be based on factors like average draft position (ADP*), roster competition, team construction, scheme fit and player potential.

*Current ADP via FantasyPros.com.

Quarterback

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Joe Flacco will have a prime opportunity to bounce back in 2016.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

While we don't know if Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is elite, we do know he is an accomplished passer and a former Super Bowl champion. In the past, he's also been a capable fantasy starter. Two years ago, for example, he passed for 3,986 yards with 27 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions.

Yet, Flacco seems to be getting absolutely no love heading into the 2016 season. His current ADP sits at No. 25.0 among quarterbacks and just 208th overall. Among quarterbacks, he's right above unemployed Ryan Fitzpatrick and Johnny Manziel.

Perhaps folks are waiting to see how Flacco responds after ACL and MCL tears ended his 2015 campaign. A recovery period that lasts into the season could definitely hurt his fantasy value, but it's looking like Flacco will be on the practice field and preparing when training camp starts.

"I expect to be on the field for the first day," Flacco said, per Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. "We'll see how it feels at that point. I'm kind of curious to see, as training camp goes along, am I going to have sore days and stuff like that? But I expect to be out there and ready to go."

Assuming Flacco is fully healthy, he could actually be in store for the best statistical season of his career. Flacco has an impressive group of pass-catchers with which to work. His targets this year will include Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken and tight end Benjamin Watson. Second-year wideout Breshad Perriman should make his way onto the field at some point, and tight ends like Maxx Williams and Crockett Gillmore will provide some sneaky extra options.

Let's not forget that passes to running backs like Justin Forsett and rookie Kenneth Dixon will find their way into Flacco's points total. With pass-driven offensive coordinator Marc Trestman at the helm, this could be the year Flacco truly becomes a fantasy star.

It doesn't look like you'll have to jump on Flacco early in your draft in order to get him—just make sure you do get him.

Running Back

Nam Huh/Associated Press

Don't be too surprised if Jordan Howard wins the starting job in Chicago this year.

Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears

For our running back, we're going with Chicago Bears rookie Jordan Howard. The former UAB and Indiana standout has all the tools to be a workhorse back at the NFL level. He's 6'0" and 230 pounds, ran a 4.59-second 40 at his pro day and has repeatedly showcased his ability on the game field. 

Just last season, Howard rushed for 1,213 yards and 6.3 yards per carry.

However, the rookie—selected in the fifth round of the draft—isn't looking like a trendy player heading into fantasy-draft season. His current ADP is just 161st overall and 57.0 among running backs in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues.

The likely reason for Howard's low fantasy stock is the presence of Bears running back Jeremy Langford. The 2015 fourth-round pick showed some flashes as a rookie last season, and many view him as the heir to the now-departed Matt Forte.

The reality, however, is that Langford struggled as a runner last season. He seemed to have trouble identifying rushing lanes and breaking tackles in the open field. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, and he finished the year rated just 153rd overall among running backs by Pro Football Focus.

Howard should get every opportunity in training camp and the preseason to oust Langford from any dominant role there might be in Chicago's committee backfield. Even if the two split carries, the stouter Howard (Langford measures in at 6'0" and 208 pounds) seems like a better fit for the early-down and goal-line work in Chicago.

Though he might not be a top-10 running back as a rookie, Howard looks like a quality starter at the RB2 or flex position. Yet he is looking like a player who will fall to the bottom or completely out of fantasy drafts this year.

Wide Reciever

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

Can Sammie Coates replace the suspended Martavis Bryant in Pittsburgh's offense?

Sammie Coates, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Sammie Coates didn't accomplish much as a rookie in 2015. In fact, he finished the regular season with just one reception for 11 yards.

However, Coates got an opportunity in the postseason when injury sidelined Antonio Brown. He flashed some big-play ability against the Denver Broncos, catching two passes for 61 yards against their championship-caliber defense.

Coates, of course, was known for making big plays during his time at Auburn. In 2014, he averaged 21.8 yards per reception and totaled 741 yards and four scores. He simply found himself buried underneath an extremely talented Steelers depth chart.

This should all change in 2016, though. Coates is widely expected to step into the role of No. 3 receiver vacated by suspended Martavis Bryant. The Steelers will be without Bryant for all of 2016 because of an indefinite suspension for violation of the league's substance abuse policy. 

A third receiver on most teams isn't always going to be enticing when it comes to fantasy. However, things in Pittsburgh are a bit different. Bryant racked up 50 receptions, 765 yards and six touchdowns in just 11 games last season. This should be the level of production fantasy owners can hope to expect from Coates.

But Coates holds a current ADP of just 56.8 among wide receivers for PPR formats. This puts him below guys like Breshad Perriman and suspended wideout Josh Gordon.

When examining potential alongside draft stock, Coates starts to look like quite the bargain. 

Tight End

Todd Kirkland/Associated Press

Rookie Austin Hooper could have an early impact in Atlanta's passing game.

Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons

We're going back to the rookie well for our sleeper tight end. For this position, we're going with Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper. The third-round pick and former Stanford standout has a lot of potential to produce in Atlanta's high-powered (sixth in the NFL last season) passing offense.

The 6'4", 254-pound pass-catcher wasn't exactly a human highlight reel in college. However, he did produce a solid 438-yard, six-touchdown season in 2015. More importantly, his athleticism and quickness—he ran a 4.72-second 40 at the scouting combine—should allow him to evolve into an even better pro.

Hooper's ADP is currently just 31.0 among tight ends and 247th overall for PPR formats.

The reason Hooper is near the bottom of tight end rankings is probably that he's expected to start the season behind eight-year veteran Jacob Tamme. Given Hooper's physical gifts, though, he may not stay there. Tamme has never really been a first-choice offensive weapon. He had the best year of his career in 2015, when the Falcons were short on receiving options.

Take a flier on Hooper late with the idea that he could take over as Atlanta's starter at tight end by midseason. If he does, his fantasy value should rise to starter level. Tamme managed to haul in 59 receptions for 657 yards last season. He finished the year 10th among tight ends in yardage.

Hooper will be a guy you'll want to target late in your draft because his value will be limited to spot starter or flex option until/unless he claims that starting job. However, he represents a solid gamble late and should be much more valuable than his ADP would indicate.

Defense/Special Teams

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Cornerback Adam Jones (left) has helped make the Bengals defense one of the better units in recent years.

Cincinnati Bengals

Most fantasy owners draft and stick with one defense throughout the season (minus the bye week, clearly). However, draft strategies involving defense and special teams units (D/ST) can vary greatly. Some folks will wait until the last couple of rounds to draft a defense, while others are quick to jump on an elite D/ST unit in the middle of the draft.

Since we're talking sleepers, we're obviously going to look to a unit that should be available near the end of your fantasy draft.

Enter the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincinnati fielded one of the league's top defenses in 2015. The group ranked second in points allowed (17.4 per game) and 10th in sacks (42). In addition, the defense managed to snag 21 interceptions—third-most in the league—and force 10 fumbles.

This should be a terrific group again in 2016, despite the loss of defenders like Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson in the offseason. Strangely, though, Cincinnati has an ADP of 13.2 among defenses. This could leave the Cincinnati D/ST undrafted in many leagues.

The fact the Bengals didn't score a return touchdown and scored just three defensive touchdowns in 2015 probably does hurt the group's draft stock a bit. However, this should be one of the most consistent D/ST groups in fantasy this year. Do not hesitate to grab Cincinnati late in your draft.

Kicker

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Josh Brown made 44 of 45 extra-point attempts in 2015.

Josh Brown, New York Giants

We have to evaluate our sleeper kicker a little bit differently than we might with a player at another position. Since most (sane) fantasy players only draft one kicker and do so in the final few rounds, we're not going to go too far down the list.

We're going with New York Giants kicker Josh Brown here, because the guy just isn't getting the kind of credit he deserves. He made 30 of 32 field-goal attempts last season and scored 134 real-world points. Yet, his ADP is currently No. 13.0 among kickers. This means he might not even be drafted in many 10- and 12-team leagues.

Perhaps at 37 years old, Brown's age is working against him. Perhaps fantasy enthusiasts are turned off by his lack of long attempts—he was 3-of-3 on field goals of at least 50 yards last season. Either way, it feels like people are underestimating Brown.

Kickers for potent offenses typically draw fantasy attention, and the Giants fielded the sixth-best scoring offense (26.2 points per game) in the NFL last year. Considering the team added wideout Sterling Shepard in the draft and should be getting Victor Cruz back on the field, the offense may be even more potent in 2016.

Meanwhile, Brown seems to be working hard at perfecting his piece of the proverbial puzzle.

“I don’t know if [Brown] has reinvented himself,” special teams coordinator Tom Quinn said, per Dan Salomone of the team's official website. “I think he has put together a solid couple of years and is just continuing to grow. He has done a good job with nutrition and training and that has helped him extend his career.”

If you're waiting until the final round for a kicker and Brown is there, pull the trigger.

Flex: Bonus Sleeper

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Former Ohio State receiver Michael Thomas should be a big contributor in New Orleans.

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

Since most fantasy formats allow for a flex position, we're going to include a bonus sleeper. We're picking another wideout and another rookie.

Rookies often generate a fantasy buzz because of that uncertainty factor. This has been especially true among wide receivers in recent years, and it will remain true this season.

Everyone is looking to snag the next A.J. Green, Kelvin Benjamin or Odell Beckham Jr.

Four wide receivers were drafted in the first round this offseason. However, we're going with second-rounder and former Ohio State receiver Michael Thomas as our second sleeper receiver and bonus pick. There are a couple of big reasons for this, in addition to his 6'3", 212-pound frame.

The biggest reason is Thomas' pairing with New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees. New Orleans led the league in passing last season (310.6 yards per game), and Brees is the guy to thank for that. Thomas has already earned the respect of his new quarterback, which should get him plenty of looks during the regular season.

"You can tell it is all starting to register," Brees said of Thomas and offseason workouts, per Christopher Dabe of NOLA.com. "Once he picks it up, he gets it."

Though the Saints already have a couple of capable receivers on their roster, Thomas has a realistic chance of earning the No. 1 receiver role. At the very least, he should replace Marques Colston as one of the team's primary outside receivers.

Despite all of this, Thomas holds an ADP of just 57.8 among wide receivers for PPR formats. He should challenge the first-round receivers to be the top rookie pass-catcher of 2016, though, and he's worth keeping on your fantasy radar.