Wimbledon 2016 Men's Semifinals: Berdych vs. Murray Preview, Predictions
When Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych face off in the semifinals of Wimbledon 2016, it will be a match between guys whose careers fall on opposite sides of that line that separates great players from Grand Slam champions.
In quarterfinals action Wednesday, Murray defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, 7-6(10) 6-1 3-6 4-6 6-1, and Berdych took out Lucas Pouille, 7-6(4) 6-3, 6-2.
It's Murray's seventh semifinals appearance at Wimbledon. It's only the second for Berdych. Murray is a two-time Slam champion who has been runner-up eight times. Berdych has been a runner-up once.
The two men shoulder completely different expectations. Murray became the favorite when Sam Querrey upset No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic. Berdych, seeded No. 10, was overlooked in pre-Wimbledon picks.
Of the 13 experts in ESPN's pre-tournament poll, none picked Berdych as the favorite. Four picked Murray. Everyone else chose Djokovic.
The last time Berdych reached the semifinals, 2010, he advanced to the finals where he lost to Rafael Nadal. That year, Berdych defeated No. 1 seed Roger Federer and No. 3 seed Novak Djokovic en route to the championship match.
A regular in the top 10 on the ATP World Tour, Berdych has been ranked as high as No. 4. Yet he is slam-less.
Berdych would love to take his name out of the conversation about the greatest players to never win a Grand Slam. Among active players, he ranks up there with David Ferrer and Tsonga.
Last year, Berdych told ESPN: "I know that with Djokovic, Roger Federer, Murray and Nadal this is the toughest time ever to win a slam title. Stan Wawrinka proved it could be done last year but I am 29 years old and know my time is running out. So it has got to be soon."
Does he have what it takes to step up from great player to Grand Slam champion?
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Despite their long careers, these two have never met on grass.
Murray leads the head to head against Berdych, 8-6. But that record is not as close as it seems. Murray won the last four, including a match on clay at this year's Madrid Open.
They have never played in a five-setter.
Berdych at Wimbledon 2016
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Berdych reached the semifinals with a victory over unseeded Pouille in routine fashion.
Pouille, 22, was the last of three next-generation players whom Berdych beat en route to the semifinals.
In the fourth round, Berdych survived a five-set match against 22-year-old Jiri Vesely, a 6’6” fellow Czech. Vesely served 26 aces in that match.
Berdych defeated teen sensation Alexander Zverev, 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, in the third round.
Throughout this tournament, Berdych has played behind a solid serve. He's managed to get more than 60 percent of his first serves in.
Murray at Wimbledon 2016
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Murray seemed to be cruising in his match against Tsonga before the Frenchman fought back. After stealing the first-set tiebreaker, Murray took the second set, 6-1.
Then Tsonga stormed back, taking the third and fourth sets. That's when ESPN's cameras caught an animated Murray shouting to himself: "I will not lose this match," per the ESPNTennis Twitter feed.
He took the fifth set comfortably.
His fourth-round match against Nick Kyrgios was supposed to be cause for concern. However, it turned out to be a cakewalk. Murray dismissed Kyrgios in straight sets, 7-5, 6-1, 6-4.
Prior to his match with Tsonga, Murray had not dropped a set.
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The Biggest X-Factor
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With players as familiar with each other as Berdych and Murray, the biggest X-factor will be managing nerves. These guys are about the same age and have been on the tour for years.
They've both been in Wimbledon semifinals before. Murray has the edge, but with that comes the weight of expectations.
Will Murray feel more pressure because everyone expects him to win? Will Berdych hit freely because he's the underdog with nothing to lose? How each player manages expectations will be a big X-factor.
Berdych Will Win If...
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Berdych has little to lose and that's how he has to play. Murray is the favorite, so Berdych has to keep the scoreboard pressure on.
He can't avoid to blow break points the way Tsonga did against Murray.
Berdych also has to keep his first-serve percentage up. Murray is one of the best returners in the game and will pounce on every second serve.
Murray is a Brit, so, of course, he's better on grass than Berdych. However, Berdych has a 68.8 winning percentage on grass. He has to take the court with the confidence that he can play his best tennis. He'll need that to take down Murray at Wimbledon.
Murray Will Win If...
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Murray may need to take some chances on that second serve. It's his biggest weakness. He also needs to exploit Berdych's movement by mixing it up like he did against Tsonga.
Berdych covers the court well; however, it's unlikely he will run down balls any better than Tsonga.
If Murray finds himself in a five-set dog fit, he must trust that his fitness level prepares him to withstand long matches.
He once told Men's Health magazine: "Earlier in my career I used to spend a lot of time practicing my tennis on court. Now I’ve learned that it’s better to do just a couple of hours on court and two gym sessions a day. That’s what’s made me fitter and stronger."
He has to use his brute force to dictate play. If he does, this match could be over quickly.
Prediction
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Murray has every advantage imaginable in this matchup. He's been to the quarterfinals or better at every Wimbledon since 2008. He'll have the crowd solidly behind him.
Next to Djokovic, Murray has been playing better than everyone on the ATP World Tour. Berdych is a solid player and might show up with his A game.
However, after withstanding Tsonga's massive forehand, Murray should be able to handle whatever Berdych throws his way.
Murray wins in straight sets.
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