One Nightmare Scenario for Every Top-25 CFB Recruiting Class
With a little more than seven months left in the 2017 recruiting cycle, there are plenty of reasons for fans to be excited about their teams.
The ones in the top 25 of 247Sports' composite team rankings have gotten out to hot starts by either loading up on a large number of early commitments, landing some of the highest-rated recruits in the country or doing a combination of both.
But in the wild world of recruiting, all that can change in an instant.
Let's take a look at the current top 25 recruiting classes and pick out what the worst-case or "nightmare" scenarios would be for these programs for the rest of the 2017 cycle. These scenarios will be based on realism. Otherwise, "have everyone decommit and have zero signings on the final day" would be the nightmare for all 25 teams.
Here are the tough situations these 25 programs need to avoid in order to have great 2017 classes and build toward huge seasons down the road.
25. Ole Miss: NCAA Hammers Rebels with Sanctions
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Ole Miss signed a monster class in the 2016 cycle and will look to compete for the SEC West title again after a 10-win season in 2015. The Rebels will go for another huge haul in this cycle, but the cloud of an NCAA investigation is hanging over Oxford.
Last month, Ole Miss released its notice of allegations and announced self-imposed sanctions. But this situation isn't over, as the NCAA's Committee on Infractions has to decide if Ole Miss' penalties are good enough on their own or if they need to add more punishment. The wild saga of former offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil on the first night of the NFL draft could bring more punishment onto Hugh Freeze and his staff.
For Ole Miss, a nightmare scenario in this cycle is if the NCAA decides to impose bigger and tougher sanctions as a result of an extended investigation. Major penalties would devastate the 2017 recruiting class and force those already committed to think about going elsewhere.
24. Duke: Fail to Restock Secondary
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With a 4-star and a dozen 3-stars already committed for 2017, Duke is once again off to a hot start in recruiting for the second straight cycle. It's unlikely the Blue Devils will stay in the top 25 long term, but they have chances to add to their impressive haul so far.
A major key for Duke right now is to snag some cornerbacks. As Robert Judin of Campus Insiders noted, "more than half of [Duke's] cornerbacks are almost done with their college careers." Duke already has a pair of safeties in this current class, and it needs to pair them with some potentially instant-impact cornerbacks.
The Blue Devils are targeting 4-star Georgia cornerback Yusuf Corker and a handful of 3-stars who can also play the position. If Duke strikes out at this position, it's going to be in a tough spot for the future.
23. Nebraska: California Connection Falters
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The Cornhuskers already started strong in the 2017 cycle by nabbing a pair of 4-star teammates—quarterback Tristan Gebbia and wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson—from Calabasas (California) High School.
Nebraska will need to keep Gebbia and Johnson in the boat, as they could be the key to landing 5-star cornerback and fellow Calabasas teammate Darnay Holmes. The Huskers' California connection has also gotten them into the race for 5-star wide receivers Joseph Lewis and Tyjon Lindsey, as well as 4-star athlete Rahyme Johnson.
But if one of the Calabasas commitments decides to go elsewhere, it could have a huge ripple effect in Nebraska's recruiting class for 2017. The California connection faltering somewhere in this cycle would be a true nightmare for head coach Mike Riley and his staff.
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22. Maryland: Go 0-of-2 with DeMatha Standouts
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Maryland is close to one of the biggest high school programs in the country in DeMatha Catholic, and the school has churned out quite a few big-name prospects in the last few seasons. Unfortunately, the biggest ones aren't staying in state with the Terps, as quarterback Dwayne Haskins' late flip to Ohio State last cycle was quite a sting for Maryland.
This cycle, Maryland has two big DeMatha names on its board—5-star defensive end Chase Young and 4-star RB Anthony McFarland Jr. Both of these players could be huge pickups for head coach D.J. Durkin in his first full class with Maryland, and the Terps need to find a way to keep these local prospects at home.
If they miss out on DeMatha's best and brightest again, it's going to be hard for Maryland to keep up in Big Ten recruiting at an elite level. Maryland can't let conference rivals pick out top prospects from its own backyard again.
21. Washington: Miss Out on Elite OL
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Washington is looking for a couple of elite offensive linemen to sign in its 2017 class, which is already off to a great start with four 4-stars already on board. However, Washington has already missed on a few top players at the position.
The Huskies still have options on the offensive line, including 5-star in-state product Foster Sarell and 4-stars Henry Bainivalu and Alijah Vera-Tucker. Ruth Robbins of 247Sports wrote Washington might only need a pair of blue-chip offensive linemen in this 2017 class.
But the Huskies will face some stiff competition for their targets left on the board, especially for Sarell. If Washington strikes out again on some elite offensive linemen, it'll have a sizable gap in this class. That would be troublesome for Chris Petersen, even as he has the Huskies looking like future Pac-12 North contenders.
20. Houston: Tom Herman Leaves
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It's going to happen eventually, barring some extreme loyalty, and it could come as early as this upcoming coaching carousel. But Houston knows that's the risk with a highly valued head coaching prospect such as second-year man Tom Herman.
Under Herman, Houston signed a stunning 2016 class by "Group of Five" standards that included a top-10 recruit in defensive tackle Ed Oliver. So far in the 2017 cycle, Herman has nabbed 16 3-star commitments close to home and has chances with several blue-chip prospects.
Herman's "H-Town Takeover" is pumping in a higher level of talent to the Cougars, but it's hard to imagine most of the class staying intact if he decides to take a Power Five job before national signing day. Houston will survive and still be one of the best non-power programs in the country after Herman leaves—whenever that happens—but it would take a big toll on its recruiting.
19. Auburn: Lose Kellen Mond to Texas A&M
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Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn needs to land a big-time quarterback prospect. The Tigers will most likely rely on another JUCO transfer, John Franklin III, to help out their situation at the position this fall. And even if Jeremy Johnson bounces back and takes over the starting job again, 2016 will be his last year of eligibility.
That makes getting 4-star quarterback Kellen Mond even more important to Auburn. The Tigers already lost a commitment from fellow Elite 11 finalist Lowell Narcisse earlier in cycle. Mond, a former Baylor commitment, is undoubtedly one of the biggest targets still on the board for Auburn as the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback in this class.
The race for the IMG Academy product should come down to Auburn and Texas A&M, and Keith Niebuhr of 247Sports reported Mond will announce his decision by the end of next week. It's imperative Auburn land a quarterback of Mond's caliber for the future, as he appears to be the Tigers' best shot at a top quarterback in the 2017 cycle.
18. Oklahoma State: Failure to Maintain Momentum This Fall
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Oklahoma State jumped out to a strong start in the 2017 recruiting cycle with a good-size class of one 4-star and 14 3-stars. The Cowboys have a chance to pick up more blue-chip players down the stretch, which hinges on a strong 2016 season for head coach Mike Gundy.
"[The Cowboys are] mixing quality with quantity and are gaining some positive momentum headed towards the fall," Kyle Boone of the Pistols Firing wrote. "A good season would go a long way towards cementing players with their commitment status and jumping in the mix for some big names later."
OSU rattled off 10 straight wins to start the 2015 season before three straight losses to Baylor, Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The program then finished 45th nationally in recruiting for 2016. In order to hang with the class of the Big 12, the Cowboys need to keep this momentum going. A rough stretch like the one they had to finish the 2015 campaign could be costly to their current class.
17. South Carolina: Another Losing Season Stops Hot Streak
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New South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp is off to a scorching start in his first full class with the Gamecocks. South Carolina already has 16 commitments, although only one of them is a coveted blue-chip prospect—4-star athlete Shi Smith. Sustaining that momentum is paramount for Muschamp in this cycle.
"USC's class is currently ranked No. 17, and the Gamecocks are in the running for several very good players," Matt Connolly of the State wrote. "A winning season in Muschamp's first year would help USC close strong on its 2017 class and carry over to 2018. If the Gamecocks struggle in Muschamp's first season, it will be interesting to see how that affects recruiting."
If South Carolina fails to make a bowl game in 2016, it's going to be tougher for the Gamecocks to sign some of the higher-rated targets and keep those current commitments intact. Muschamp needs all the momentum he can get as he tries to build South Carolina back into a serious SEC East contender. A slip-up would be costly early in his tenure.
16. Northwestern: Miss Out on Much-Needed WRs
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Northwestern is another school that isn't normally a recruiting powerhouse but has broken into the top 25 of the team rankings thanks to a big class of 3-stars.
Two of those 3-stars are recent wide receiver commitments, and that's come as a relief to the Wildcats. According to Josh Helmholdt of Rivals, Northwestern has whiffed on some major wide receiver targets over the last few seasons. The Wildcats aren't done yet at the position, either, going after 4-star Cameron Sullivan-Brown.
Northwestern can't afford to lose a hold of the wide receivers it currently has committed to the program, and it could use another elite wide receiver or athlete who can play the position as it looks to wrap up the 2017 class. It's a long way until signing day, and the Wildcats can't miss out on much-needed wideouts again.
15. North Carolina: Whiff on Blue-Chip DBs
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Defensive backs are going to be a high priority for North Carolina in this cycle. The Tar Heels don't have a ton of depth behind their starters for 2016, who consist of nothing but upperclassmen.
Two of North Carolina's biggest targets right now are 4-star safeties Devon Hunter and Jonathan Sutherland. The Tar Heels also need a pair of cornerbacks in this class, and they're targeting talent such as 4-star Maryland native Deon Jones.
Missing out on these blue-chip prospects in the secondary would leave North Carolina with a thin secondary for 2017 and beyond, which would be a huge frustration given the Tar Heels' improvement in pass defense last season. UNC has to keep the momentum going in the secondary or risk moving backward on the defensive side of the ball in a big way.
14. Clemson: Lose Hunter Johnson
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It's rather unlikely to happen for Clemson, but losing 5-star quarterback Hunter Johnson would be a nightmare scenario for the Tigers as they presumably look ahead to life without Heisman front-runner Deshaun Watson in 2017.
Johnson is currently ranked as the No. 1 pro-style quarterback in the class of 2017 and is the best pure passer out there. He would be an ideal fit for the Clemson offense, and the Tigers would love to see him come in and compete next season with current backup Kelly Bryant and 4-star 2016 signee Zerrick Cooper.
Clemson's current 2017 class is lagging behind the top 10 in the team rankings right now, but the story of this current crop is extremely high quality over quantity. Losing Johnson to a flip would be quite a surprise, and it's a nightmare that Clemson fans wouldn't want to deal with this year.
13. Texas A&M: Lose Kellen Mond to Auburn
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Look familiar? Texas A&M is in almost the exact same spot as Auburn for the same player, 4-star quarterback Kellen Mond. The Aggies already have a commitment in 3-star pro-style passer Connor Blumrick, but they are pushing hard for Mond after his decommitment from Baylor.
The recent quarterback woes at Texas A&M are well-established by now. Former 5-stars Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray decided to transfer elsewhere late last year, and Texas A&M had to pick up Trevor Knight as a grad transfer from Oklahoma. Texas A&M only has one underclassman quarterback on its roster, and he is a walk-on.
After losing 5-star commitment Tate Martell last month, Mond represents Texas A&M's best chance at an elite quarterback in this class. If he decides to go with the Tigers, it'll be another miss in what has been a rough few months for the future of the quarterback job in College Station.
12. Mississippi State: Lose In-State Control to Ole Miss
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Mississippi State had an early grasp on in-state recruiting over rival Ole Miss, but the pendulum is swinging back toward the Rebels over the last few weeks. The Bulldogs recently lost a battle for 4-star outside linebacker Willie Gay's commitment to Ole Miss, which was especially tough considering he's from MSU's home of Starkville.
The Bulldogs picked up a large chunk of 3-star Mississippi targets early in the cycle, and it should have a few more battles with the Rebels coming in the future. Four-star safety CJ Avery's decision should come down to Ole Miss and Mississippi State later this summer.
Mississippi State needs to pick up some more recruiting wins over Ole Miss and some other SEC schools in the last several months of this cycle. Losing more prospects, especially in-state ones, to the Rebels would be a painful reality for Dan Mullen's program.
11. Arizona: Lose Greg Johnson
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Arizona is flying incredibly high in recruiting right now with the nation's No. 11 class and the No. 1 class in the entire Pac-12. The Wildcats needed to bounce back both on and off the field after a lackluster 2015 campaign, and they're doing just that at the moment.
The linchpin to the class is 4-star athlete Greg Johnson, a Los Angeles native who is the No. 2 player at his position for 2017. Johnson is an exciting prospect because he can play running back or defensive back—two positions of need in this class, according to Brad Allis of 247Sports—and he could help recruit more Southern California kids to come to Tucson.
Losing Johnson, who received an offer from defending national champion Alabama last month, would be a big blow to Rich Rodriguez and his staff's current crop of recruits. Other powerhouse programs will continue to press hard for a flip, and that would be a major loss for the Wildcats in what has been a scorching start to the 2017 cycle.
10. Miami: Fail to Keep Up with UF and FSU Down the Stretch
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The arrival of Mark Richt at Miami has helped the Hurricanes race out to a top-10 start in recruiting for the 2017 cycle. With 14 commitments, Miami has room to grow in the class and is just two spots behind in-state recruiting king Florida State.
But the Seminoles and the Florida Gators, who are down at No. 38 right now with a small class of eight pledges, have a way of closing extremely well and leaving Miami in the dust. With this new regime, Miami must be able to keep up with Florida State and Florida down the stretch of a recruiting cycle.
Bringing Miami back to where it wants to be on a national level means finishing stronger in recruiting that has been dominated in recent years by its in-state rivals. The Hurricanes sit on the most coveted hotbed for football recruits in the country, and they need to prove that things are going to be different under Richt.
9. LSU: More Uncertainty Surrounding Les Miles
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LSU finished the 2016 cycle with the No. 3 overall class in college football, but it all almost went sideways because of the uncertain future surrounding head coach Les Miles. While the LSU brass decided to keep Miles late last season, the unstable ground he could find himself on again this fall could have a huge effect on the Tigers' recruiting.
As the only power program in the state of Louisiana, which produces more elite football talent than any other area in the country per capita, LSU has a huge built-in recruiting advantage. And Miles' staff at LSU has built long relationships with plenty of the state's best prospects, which goes a long way in getting them to stay close to home.
If Miles is the subject of more hot-seat talk this fall or is eventually fired, LSU will still have a solid recruiting class—but it'll be a far cry from what it could be. Tigers fans who want to see Miles gone have to consider the instant recruiting impact it'll have on the program.
8. Florida State: Miss Out on More Quality in Small Class
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Florida State is set up for a smaller but still incredible recruiting class in 2017. According to David Visser of Tomahawk Nation, the Seminoles are expected to only sign 20 recruits this cycle, and they already have commitments from 10 of those.
That being said, Florida State can afford to be picky with its 10 remaining spots. The Seminoles have cast their nets wide to pick out some of the best of the best in the country, including No. 3 overall recruit Marvin Wilson—a Texas native—and a handful of 5-star wide receivers from across the Southeast.
FSU is smart to favor quality over quantity, especially with several months to go in the cycle. But striking out elite players who will make late commitment decisions could put the Seminoles in a bind as we get closer to national signing day. Whiffing on the likes of Wilson and other top-100 types would jeopardize what could be the best class in Jimbo Fisher's tenure at Florida State.
7. Tennessee: Miss on Both In-State 5-Stars
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The state of Tennessee has a pair of 5-star prospects who could take the Volunteers' recruiting efforts to the next level for the class of 2017. The top priority now is to keep those players inside state lines.
Five-star athlete JaCoby Stevens and 5-star WR Tee Higgins—who was formerly committed to the Vols—are two of the biggest targets on the board for Butch Jones and his staff. The battle for Higgins looks like it will come down to Clemson and Tennessee, while Stevens has Clemson and virtually every major SEC program competing with the Volunteers for his signature.
Getting both of these prospects would be monumental for Tennessee, and watching both of them go elsewhere would be rough for the Volunteers. With an experience-laden team in 2016, Tennessee will need to replace a lot of outgoing talent with incoming stars in this class. Missing on two elite prospects in its own backyard just can't happen.
6. Notre Dame: Fail to Land More Elite Defenders
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Notre Dame has cleaned up on the offensive side of the ball so far in this cycle, picking up a pair of 4-star tight ends, a 4-star dual-threat quarterback, two 4-star offensive tackles and a 4-star wide receiver. On defense, though, the Fighting Irish need more star power, especially up front.
According to Evan Sharpley of 247Sports, Notre Dame's biggest defensive target right now is 5-star Georgia defensive end Robert Beal, who committed to the Irish last November but opened his recruitment back up in February. Beal is a freakishly athletic pass-rusher who could dominate for Notre Dame down the road.
Other top targets across the front seven include 5-star outside linebacker Baron Browning, 4-star defensive tackle Darnell Ewell, 4-star outside linebacker Justin Foster and 4-star defensive end LaBryan Ray. The Irish would love to snag Beal and a couple of these blue-chip defenders. If they whiff on them, though, it'll be a tough pill to swallow for a currently unbalanced class.
5. Georgia: See Hot Streak of In-State Success Cool Off
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First-year Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has done an incredible job of locking down the Bulldogs' state borders and keeping a lot of talent close to home. As Barton Simmons of 247Sports wrote, Smart is doing what was deemed impossible under Mark Richt by dominating the state of Georgia.
But the Bulldogs still have plenty of work to do in finishing the job, and they'd hate to see a chunk of the state's best prospects go elsewhere. Right now, Georgia has commitments from four national top-100 players from its home state. According to 247Sports, the Bulldogs have seven more listed as top targets, including the 4-star Grayson High School cornerback pairing of Jamyest Williams and Deangelo Gibbs.
Georgia already has a solid base of in-state talent on board, but huge stars such as 5-star defensive end Robert Beal are still out there. Missing out on a majority of those elite targets left on the board—especially to other SEC rivals—would put out the recruiting wildfire Smart has started in Athens.
4. Michigan: Miss on Grabbing Another 5-Star Offensive Player
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Michigan already has the face of its 2017 recruiting class in hand with the commitment of 5-star pro-style quarterback Dylan McCaffrey. The Wolverines have a chance to pair him on offense with another 5-star, as they're pushing hard for both No. 1 wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones and monster offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson.
"Michigan is far from finished up front because of that depth concern," Bleacher Report's David Kenyon wrote. "Fortunately, the 2017 class is absolutely loaded with linemen. ... Key targets remain undecided, so this is a commendable yet unfinished group [on offense]."
The Wolverines need that second 5-star to join the attack with McCaffrey, and missing on Wilson might be more devastating than Peoples-Jones. In order to keep up with the best of the best in recruiting, Jim Harbaugh and Co. need to get another big-time offensive recruit.
3. Oklahoma: Momentum Runs Out On and Off the Field
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For a program that hasn't signed top-five recruiting classes in a while, Oklahoma is on fire early in the 2017 cycle. Ten of its current 15 commitments are 4-stars, and it's currently in the mix for a few 5- and 4-star recruits.
The worst thing that could happen for Oklahoma in this cycle is for all that momentum to run out this fall. The Sooners received a boost in recruiting this offseason after their Big 12 title and College Football Playoff run. But the 2016 schedule is downright brutal in the beginning with games against Houston, Ohio State and TCU, and there are some big-time holes to fill on defense.
If Oklahoma gets out to a slow start in 2016, the recruiting momentum could swing back to other Big 12 rivals for the stretch run of the cycle. The Sooners are in a perfect position right now, but they can't afford to let all the good recruiting momentum it gained last season fizzle out.
2. Ohio State: Miss on 5-Star WR Targets
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Ohio State has a chance at challenging Alabama for the top class in 2017, and a lot of that will hinge on the Buckeyes' ability to clean up on the many 5-stars still out there. Wide receiver is a special focus for Ohio State, as it's in good shape with three 5-stars.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tyjon Lindsey and Trevon Grimes are three of the top five receivers in this class, and the potential of that trio playing together for Urban Meyer would make any Buckeyes fan drool. But there's a chance that none of them could end up at Ohio State, which would be a gut punch to what will undoubtedly be a top-notch class.
Missing on all three would be a shock, as Grimes is widely expected to sign with Ohio State. But anything can happen in the wild world of recruiting, and the program will need to make sure it gets at least one of these elite receivers on board for 2017.
1. Alabama: Nick Saban Leaves
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The only thing that looks like it will be able to slow down Alabama's quest for recruiting dominance is for something to happen to head coach Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide are going for their sixth recruiting title in a row, per 247Sports' team rankings (via B/R's Christopher Walsh), and they recently pulled ahead again thanks to a commitment from long snapper Thomas Fletcher.
"Nick Saban is one of the most persuasive head coaches on the planet," Bleacher Report's Damon Sayles told us. "It helps that wins accompany his recruiting philosophies. Alabama would still be popular, but if you take the head coach out of the equation, you could see a major recruiting trend not in the favor of the school."
If Saban decides to leave Alabama because of retirement, burnout or another job—that last one is looking more and more impossible by the year—the Tide's stellar recruiting class would be impacted. In terms of a "recruiting nightmare," that seems to be the only realistic scenario for this football machine in Tuscaloosa.
Recruiting rankings are courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a National College Football Analyst at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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