Predicting the NFL's Top Rushing Seasons in 2016

The NFL has continued to evolve into a pass-happy attack that spreads defenses thin with remarkable athletes lined up at every position. Offensive efficiency is at an all-time high, and defenses have been scrambling to find solutions the last five years. In the meantime, the NFL’s leading rushers have seen a dip in usage and cumulative statistics.

The 2016 season will likely be the same. Only seven running backs accumulated at least 1,000 rushing yards in 2015. After digging through the numbers, depth charts and offseason transactions, we’ve projected the NFL’s leading rushers in 2016, with some hesitancy given to players returning from major injury.

Some talented playmakers will see increased statistics, while others may not have the same opportunities to produce. Every situation is unique, and injuries can quickly alter how many carries a running back will receive. We’ve done our best to project who will emerge and take advantage of his situation to finish with a top-10 season in terms of carries, yards and touchdowns.

10. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

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2015 statistics: 71 carries, 364 yards, four touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 215 carries, 1,075 yards, six touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles has been a premier playmaker capable of destroying defenses as a runner and receiver throughout his eight-year career. The 29-year-old has one of the highest career average-yards-per-carry numbers with 5.5 per attempt. The last three seasons he’s averaged five yards per carry, which would be a career-best for most backs throughout NFL history.

But now Charles is facing a new challenge. He tore his ACL last season after playing in five games, marking the second major knee injury in the past five seasons. His usage had already been cut since 2013, making it clear the Chiefs don’t want to overwork him.

Even after re-signing backups Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, the Chiefs will give Charles the majority of touches. When he gets into a rhythm and unleashes his speed, if he still has it, he’s an elite creator with the ball. We’ll bet on Charles earning a respectable amount of carries and maximizing a limited workload because of his incredible track record and skill set.

9. Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders

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2015 statistics: 266 carries, 1,066 yards, six touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 265 carries, 1,140 yards, eight touchdowns

Upon entering the NFL from UCF, running back Latavius Murray was more of an athlete than refined ball-carrier. The former sixth-round pick had blazing speed to go with his impressive 6’3”, 223-pound frame but lacked nuance to make him stand out above average prospects. His biggest selling point was his physical gifts.

Now in his third season, Murray’s mostly the same player. The Oakland Raiders showed faith in his development by starting him in 2015 and were rewarded with a decent campaign. They’ll again ride the 26-year-old in this crucial season before deciding whether he’s a lead back or not.

What Murray must improve most is the ability to find creases to squeeze extra yards instead of just taking the obvious running lane and going down upon first contact. He’s a gifted athlete capable of breaking out in this talented Raiders offense. Now is the time for his hard work and development to pay off, and we think his efficiency will rise in 2016.

8. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

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2015 statistics: 203 carries, 895 yards, three touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 270 carries, 1,215 yards, five touchdowns

When the Buffalo Bills traded linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Philadelphia Eagles for running back LeSean McCoy, most pundits labeled the Bills as winners of the trade. One year later, Alonso has been jettisoned from Philadelphia and McCoy is coming off a solid season despite facing injuries. McCoy finished 13th in rushing yards with 895 yards in 12 games.

More notable was how effective McCoy was with the workload he received. Only 15 backs were given 200 or more carries, and his 4.4 yards-per-carry average ranked sixth among those players. His effectiveness at this point cannot be questioned as he continues to shred defenses.

The looming issue with McCoy is durability and the depth chart for the Bills. Backup Karlos Williams played well in limited opportunities with McCoy out. He could steal touchdown opportunities again in 2016 as the Bills try to keep McCoy fresh and away from punishing goal-line hits.

7. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

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2015 statistics: 125 carries, 581 yards, eight touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 255 carries, 1,122 yards, nine touchdowns

Every year there’s one or two rookies who greatly outperform their draft slot, proving to be great values for a lucky franchise. 2015 third-round pick David Johnson was one of the premier steals for the Arizona Cardinals, accumulating 13 total touchdowns. The versatile running back has been riding that wave of late-season production into huge hype this offseason.

According to FantasyPros.com, Johnson has been a top-six pick on average in fantasy football drafts. It’s easy to see why. If Johnson can continue to produce touchdowns at a similar rate as he did in 2015, the Cardinals will feature him as often as possible and he’ll blow our prediction out of the water.

As multidimensional as Johnson is, it’s unlikely he dramatically improves over last season. He’ll receive a higher volume of carries, and his 4.6 yards-per-carry average should hold up well. Finishing with a top-10 rushing season on top of what he brings to the table as a receiver and return man will justify his rich fantasy draft position.

6. Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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2015 statistics: 288 carries, 1,402 yards, six touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 275 carries, 1,265 yards, seven touchdowns

The biggest surprise at the running back position in 2015 was the sudden revival of Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin. The 27-year-old had shown shades of his rookie form late in his 2014 season, then regained his explosion completely last year. He was so effective that the third leading rusher behind he and Adrian Peterson had 296 yards less than his 1,402 total.

As talented as Martin is, he certainly benefited from quarterback Jameis Winston and the receiver duo of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. It’s hard for defenses to guard weapons like that on a consistent basis. The Buccaneers did well to feed Martin early and often to relieve pressure from Winston as a rookie.

But as the passing offense continues to evolve and Winston improves, Martin won’t get the same workload. The results won’t be sharp this year, but a slight dip in touches should be expected, and his 4.9 yards-per-carry average he had last season is unsustainable for all but historically good backs. A small regression back to his rookie season average of 4.6 yards per carry is our projection, helping form another excellent season for Martin.

5. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

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2015 statistics: N/A

Projected 2016 statistics: 275 carries, 1,265 yards, 10 touchdowns

One of the most surprising rushing totals of 2015 was courtesy of Dallas Cowboys tailback Darren McFadden. The oft-injured back finished fourth in total yards, which is more of a complement to the Cowboys' fantastic offensive line than it is McFadden’s long-term viability. Dallas knew McFadden couldn’t be counted on once again, and they had the opportunity to draft one of the best running back prospects available in the past five years.

Former Ohio State back Ezekiel Elliott is extraordinarily well-rounded, bringing excellent balance, vision, quickness and third-down capability to the Cowboys. He’s a complete back who will earn as many carries as the Cowboys want to give him. Considering McFadden had 239 last year, it’s a safe bet Elliott gets considerably more in 2016.

It’s impossible to not have enormous expectations on Elliott in his rookie season. Playing behind the NFL’s best offensive line and with a healthy Tony Romo at quarterback makes any back’s job easier. But Elliott is an elite talent who will maximize production. Get ready for a Pro Bowl-caliber season from the rookie.

4. Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans

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2015 statistics: 194 carries, 872 yards, eight touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 250 carries, 1,200 yards, 11 touchdowns

Possibly one of the best signings in NFL free agency this offseason was when the Houston Texans inked running back Lamar Miller. The former Miami Dolphins back signed a four-year, $26 million deal to be the new lead back for the Texans. Miller developed from a raw athlete as a collegiate prospect to one of the most consistent and explosive players at the position throughout his time in Miami.

Now paired with quarterback Brock Osweiler in head coach Bill O’Brien’s run-heavy offense, Miller will finally be unleashed in a full-time role. The Dolphins always limited his touches, much to the dismay of fans and fantasy football players. But his 4.77 yards-per-carry average between 2014 and 2015 showed he could be the focal point of an offense.

The Texans will take full advantage of his skill set if O’Brien’s history is a good predictor of future play-calling. Houston ranked sixth in 2015 in rushing attempts per game despite missing running back Arian Foster for most of the year. Miller will thrive in Houston’s zone-running scheme while being surrounded by weapons like receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

3. Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

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2015 statistics: 113 carries, 556 yards, three touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 265 carries, 1,272 yards, 10 touchdowns

A brutal MCL and PCL tear limited Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell to just six games in 2015, which opened the door for backup DeAngelo Williams to have a great renaissance campaign. But even considering how well Williams played, Bell is undoubtedly welcome back into the fold. He’s among the very best playmakers in the NFL because he produces more efficiently and in more ways than most of his peers.

The former All-Pro back is now back to 100 percent and looking to maximize his value as free agency lurks beyond 2016. Per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, Bell won’t even entertain extension talks until after the season because he wants to prove he’s healthy. If he can come close to replicating his 2014 season, he’ll surely be paid among the NFL’s best backs.

The 24-year-old will have a monstrous year with this prediction. He’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry in the past two seasons, and we predict he’ll top his career high of eight touchdowns as well. Bell won’t take long to remind the rest of the league why he’s a dynamic centerpiece for this Steelers offense.

2. Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles

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2015 statistics: 229 carries, 1,106 yards, 10 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 260 carries, 1,274 yards, 11 touchdowns

A rookie sensation as soon as he hit the field after recovering from a torn ACL, Todd Gurley is primed to continue his dominance in 2016. The 6’1”, 226-pound freight train has a rare blend of power and grace, helping his seamless transition to the NFL. He figures to capitalize on playing a full 16 games as opposed to 12 in 2015, again putting him among the three most productive backs.

The Los Angeles Rams figure to have one of the youngest and most talented backfields of any with Gurley and No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff. Goff will undoubtedly benefit from Gurley’s presence, but Gurley will similarly enjoy better quarterback play. Defenses will stay honest more often and avoid overcrowding the tackle box once Goff finds his rhythm.

The hardest part of Gurley’s prediction is his workload. While he was on pace for 304 carries had he started 16 games, only one back hit that plateau last season. Los Angeles should opt to utilize their depth at the position and keep Gurley running at his most efficient state to keep him healthy. A projection of 16 touches per game can help achieve that, and boost him into the NFL’s elite producers once again.

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

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2015 statistics: 327 carries, 1,485 yards, 11 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 285 carries, 1,283 yards, 10 touchdowns

Few offenses have relied as heavily on a running back as the Minnesota Vikings have throughout Adrian Peterson’s nine-year career. Arguably the best running back in the NFL still as he turned 31 years old this offseason, Peterson may finally carry less of a burden in 2016. The Vikings addressed their woeful wide receiver corps and pass-blocking throughout free agency and the draft to help become a more diverse attack.

Peterson answered any questions about rust last season as he led the NFL in both carries, yards and touchdowns. That type of production is still possible in 2016, although we’re predicting less usage as the Vikings give more responsibility to quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. It’s not ideal to give Peterson another 300-plus carries to accelerate the clock on his career, especially as no other team gave their back more than 288 last year.

Nevertheless, in each of the past two seasons Peterson’s played, he’s averaged 4.5 yards per carry. He’ll continue that trend in 2016 and lead the NFL once again in carries and yards. He’ll also extend his astonishing streak of double-digit touchdowns, as he’s eclipsed 10 or more touchdowns in every season except for his suspension-shortened 2014 campaign.

All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

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