US Open 2016 Odds: Early Lines and Predictions for Top Sleepers in the Field
We know the three favorites for the 2016 U.S. Open. They're the three favorites for, typically, any golf tournament on the PGA Tour.
Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are the world's three best golfers. On any given day, any of the three can look like the most transformational figure since Tiger Woods.
Spieth is the event's defending champion, boasting a streak of five straight top-five major championship finishes. Day's been the best golfer in the world for the better part of a year, putting himself well clear of Spieth in the rankings. McIlroy is the uber-talented enigma, equipped with enough power and skill to blow them both out of the water but not nearly enough consistency.
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We know these things.
What we don't know is who will be there with them this weekend looking to play the spoiler. The biggest sleeper in the field, Tiger Woods, announced last week he'll be missing the U.S. Open. Phil Mickelson hasn't won a golf tournament in three years. Dustin Johnson will be around, but it's hard to believe he'll win a major at this point until we see it.
Who, then, will make a run at Oakmont? Here's a look at the early odds for the tournament and a few potential sleepers.
U.S. Open Odds
| Jason Day | +700 |
| Rory McIlroy | +700 |
| Jordan Spieth | +800 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1400 |
| Justin Rose | +2800 |
| Rickie Fowler | +2800 |
| Adam Scott | +2800 |
| Phil Mickelson | +2800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3300 |
| Henrik Stenson | +3300 |
| Bubba Watson | +4000 |
| Danny Willett | +4000 |
| Sergio Garcia | +4000 |
| Matt Kuchar | +4500 |
| Brooks Koepka | +4500 |
| Branden Grace | +5000 |
| Patrick Reed | +5000 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +6600 |
| Charl Schwartzel | +6600 |
| Daniel Berger | +6600 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +6600 |
| Martin Kaymer | +7000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +7000 |
Full odds available at Oddshark.com.
Sleepers
Patrick Reed (+5000)
Reed is perhaps the best golfer to never sniff a major championship. He has finished better than 20th exactly once in his career, a 14th-place run at last year's U.S. Open. With four PGA Tour wins and top 10s in more than half his events so far in 2016, there's a general feeling that Reed should be doing better than he is.
Oakmont may provide that opportunity. Reed is excellent at getting out of the trouble that can undo players at U.S. Opens. He's the best on the tour at shots gained around the green and second in scrambling. Overall, he ranks fourth in putting average and should be able to use that to his advantage to avoid a high score.
The last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont, Angel Cabrera won with a score of five over. You don't have to go low here to compete. Put your head down, avoid doubles and triples, and you're likely to find yourself somewhere around the leaderboard Sunday.
Reed's skill set lends itself well to competing here.
Branden Grace (+5000)
Grace fills a lot of the same holes as Reed. He's not great at any one particular thing but does enough things well that he rarely turns in an abysmal round. His scrambling numbers are weirdly scattershot. Grace is excellent at grinding from beyond 30 yards and between 10 and 20, but he ranks outside the top 80 in every other category.
But Grace is one of the sport's best from the sand, is a decent putter and has been striking his irons well of late.
Since missing the cut at the Masters, Grace won at the RBC Heritage and finished in a tie for ninth at the Texas Open before struggling at the Players. The win at the Heritage was his first on the PGA Tour and seemed to create some momentum heading into the weekend.
Also of note: Grace was deep in contention at last year's U.S. Open. He wound up in a tie for fourth but could have won the tournament if it weren't for an errant drive on No. 16 on Sunday. A shot out of bounds led to a double bogey and opened the road for a showdown between Spieth and Johnson.
After narrowly missing out on his first major a year ago, Grace has the game to be in contention again.
Kevin Chappell (+10000)
Despite never winning on the PGA Tour, Chappell has emerged as one of the best golfers most casual fans have never heard of. He's sixth on the money list, has three runner-up finishes in 2016—including one at the Players Championship—and has a history of U.S. Open success.
The 29-year-old has played in four Opens, earning two top-10 finishes and a tie for third in his 2011 debut. That tournament, of course, is famous for McIlroy going 16 under and blasting the field in his coming-out party. Chappell was part of a group of golfers 10 strokes behind, but he's performed rather well at the year's second major.
In 2012, Chappell played the far tougher Olympic Club in San Francisco at five over and could have won the tournament if it weren't for a first-round 74. Former U.S. Open champion Andy North has even identified Chappell as a potential sleeper.
"We in the media get so focused on the handful of stars and the guys that are winning the tournaments," North said, per Andrew Erickson of TribLive.com.
"But like a Kevin Chappell, for example, no one even knows he's been around. That was one of the things that I thought would be a really cool goal is if you come out here (on tour) and win once a year and play really nicely, real solid and have no one even know you're here, that would be pretty cool."
At 100-1 odds, Chappell is pretty high up there. It's not like we're saying bet the farm on him. But if you have $5 burning a hole in your pocket and want a better chance at making a few bucks than the Powerball, he's not a bad fit.
All stats via PGATour.com.
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