The 1 Game That Will Have the Most Impact on Every FBS Conference Race
Nearly every conference and division championship came down to the final week of the season in 2015, a testament to the balance and competitiveness you can find in each league. Had some of those final results gone a little differently, we might have seen Ole Miss playing for the SEC title or UCLA taking on Stanford in the Pac-12 final.
Expect another slew of tight league races in 2016, as the overall parity in college football is at an all-time high. Many will go down to the wire, and in each case, there's one game that will factor into who wins more than any other.
Which matchup will that be? Check out our predictions for the most pivotal matchup of every FBS conference race for the 2016 season.
ACC
1 of 10
Clemson at Florida State (Oct. 29)
The Atlantic Division has dominated the ACC, claiming the last five conference championships, and each time the title has gone to the winner of the Clemson vs. FSU game. There's a good chance that run will reach six, though Louisville might have something to say about that.
Both Clemson and FSU will take on the Cardinals prior to meeting up in Week 9, and with both coming into their clash with a bye, they'll be fresh and prepared for another top-notch battle.
Clemson hasn't won in Tallahassee since 2006, though it came extremely close last time it went there before falling in overtime. That game served as a bit of a coming-out party for Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson, a freshman at the time who threw for 266 yards and ran for a touchdown in the 23-17 loss.
American
2 of 10
South Florida at Temple (Oct. 21)
Houston is the class of the AAC, having won the league last season en route to a win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl. The Cougars are strong favorites to repeat in the West Division, and with both Memphis and Navy in a bit of a rebuild for 2016, they may win going away.
The same can't be said for the East Division, where any of four different teams figures to have a shot at the regular-season title. Temple is the defending champ, having gone 7-1 before falling to Houston in the league championship, but along the way, the Owls were rocked by South Florida on the road.
That was during the Bulls' late-season surge, paced by quarterback Quinton Flowers, who had 320 yards of total offense and accounted for three touchdowns in the 44-23 win over Temple.
Big 12
3 of 10
Baylor at Oklahoma (Nov. 12)
After heavily back-loading its schedule in 2015, the Big 12 has spread out its biggest games for the upcoming season both to broaden interest and to keep from having its best teams all wear down in November and December. There are huge league games as early as late September, though the one that will go the longest way toward deciding the “one true champion” still falls toward the end.
Baylor won at least a share of the Big 12 in both 2013 and 2014, but its home loss to Oklahoma prevented a three-peat and paved the way for the Sooners to win the league and land a spot in the playoffs. Without a conference title game, the regular-season title takes on extreme value.
The Bears had won three of four in the series, including their first-ever victory in Norman in 2014, before last year's loss. That came without the services of quarterback Seth Russell, who had suffered a neck injury a few weeks earlier.
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Big Ten
4 of 10
Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 26)
Thanks to the increase in league games from eight to nine, the overall Big Ten schedule is improved in 2016. More crossover games between the divisions mean better opportunities to gauge how good the top teams from each side really are, ensuring we get another competitive conference title game like last year.
But in the end, it's still going to be the annual clash between heated rivals Michigan and Ohio State that matters most. It's very unlikely that one or the other will have clinched the East Division crown by that point—especially if Michigan State or Penn State is still in the hunt—and thus the battle between “Ohio” and “that school up North” will be a de facto title game before the conference final.
Michigan has lost four straight and 11 of 12 to the Buckeyes, with the only win coming at home in 2011 right before Urban Meyer came to OSU. The Wolverines' last win in Columbus was in 2000, though coach Jim Harbaugh won his only game in Ohio Stadium as Michigan's quarterback in 1986.
Conference USA
5 of 10
Western Kentucky at Marshall (Nov. 26)
Winners of 12 straight games against Conference USA opponents, including last year's league championship game, Western Kentucky remains the team to beat. Even with record-setting quarterback Brandon Doughty having graduated, there's no better team in the league than the Hilltoppers.
Marshall is in a crop of teams just behind Western Kentucky, with its only two C-USA losses the last two seasons coming to the Hilltoppers. That included an epic 67-66 overtime loss at home in the 2014 regular-season finale, a game that couldn't be matched last year when Western Kentucky rolled to a 49-28 win.
The winner of this game almost assuredly claims the East Division crown and likely would host the C-USA title bout against the West champion.
Mid-American
6 of 10
Toledo vs. Northern Illinois in Chicago (Nov. 9)
The Mid-American Conference knows its place in the FBS food chain. It has no aspirations to be compared to the power leagues, and it's also well aware that being able to stand out as the best “Group of Five” conference will be difficult with a number of strong programs in the American and Mountain West. Instead, the MAC is quite content with where it is and makes the most of the opportunities presented during its annual #MACtion takeover of weeknights in November.
Nineteen league games will be aired on a Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday that month, with many going a long way toward determining the division champions. That includes a rematch of the MAC title game between Bowling Green and Northern Illinois on Nov. 1, but Bowling Green might not be as strong this season after losing 11 starters and its head coach.
Instead, the top game on the slate will happen eight days later and will get played at U.S. Cellular Field, home to the Chicago White Sox. Billed as the “Huskie Chi-Town Showdown,” the 44th all-time meeting between the schools will showcase the best of the MAC in a unique setting.
Mountain West
7 of 10
Boise State at Air Force (Nov. 26)
Boise State and San Diego State are the best teams in the Mountain West, but they won't face each other in 2016 unless they win their respective divisions and play for the league title. San Diego State's road to the conference final is much clearer, as it returns most of the same team that beat everyone it played in the MWC last year by at least 14 points.
The Broncos are in the deeper Mountain Division, which in 2014 had four teams with at least 10 wins. Last year, Boise dropped three games in the division, two at home, including a 37-30 defeat to Air Force that knocked it out of the division race and steered the Falcons toward their first title of any kind since 1998.
Air Force will be Boise's main competition again this year, and with two consecutive wins in the series as well as the home-field advantage, this will be Boise's toughest test of 2016 and the most impactful game on the league schedule.
Pac-12
8 of 10
Oregon at USC (Nov. 5)
The combination of nine league games and six-team divisions means schools in the Pac-12 play almost as many games against the opposite division (four) as within their own side of the league (five). As a result, being able to fare well in those crossover games is just as important to winning a division as handling those foes chasing you in the standings.
The last four Pac-12 title games have been rematches of regular-season games, with only Oregon in 2014 able to exact revenge for a previous loss to Arizona that year. We're possibly in line for another title-game rematch this fall, one that could come only a few weeks after Oregon and USC meet in Los Angeles.
USC won the South Division last year despite falling by 20 at Oregon two weeks earlier, only to lose for a second time in 2015 to Stanford. The Ducks are poised to reclaim the North Division this season, while USC should contend for another South crown.
SEC
9 of 10
Alabama at Tennessee (Oct. 15)
There are five SEC teams among the top 15 schools in Bleacher Report's latest preseason top-25 rankings, and each is set to play no fewer than two of the other four this upcoming season. The league might not have a lot of crossover games between the divisions, but this year, there are several doozies that could end up being conference title-game previews.
Tennessee would love nothing more than for that to become a reality, for it would mean the Volunteers would be on their way to their first SEC final since 2007.
The Vols haven't beaten Alabama since 2006, though last year they led in Tuscaloosa in the fourth quarter against the eventual national champions. After falling 19-14, Tennessee won its next six games by an average of 22.2 points.
'Bama hasn't lost to an SEC East team since 2010, having won 16 in a row, including three conference title games.
Sun Belt
10 of 10
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (Oct. 27)
The trio of Appalachian State, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern combined to record 29 of the 60 wins the 11-team Sun Belt produced in 2015, with Arkansas State claiming the conference title, while the other two won their bowl games. It should be a three-team race again this season, though the schedule-makers don't have them all facing each other.
Appalachian State and Arkansas State won't meet this year, but former FCS rivals Appalachian State and Georgia Southern continue their long-standing series. The Mountaineers won 31-13 at home last season, with Georgia Southern taking their first meeting as FBS newcomers in 2014.
Since joining FBS that year, this pairing is a combined 36-14 overall and 27-5 in the Sun Belt.
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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