Despite Recent Real Madrid Improvement, Barcelona Will Stroll to El Clasico Win
Saturday sees one of world football's biggest and most-watched fixtures take place, El Clasico, as La Liga table-toppers Barcelona host Real Madrid at the Camp Nou.
The Catalan outfit lead the table by nine points and are in prime position to retain their title—indeed, at present, they are on course to repeat last season's treble efforts. They did, however, draw last time out against Villarreal—leaving an ounce of hope for their rivals and fellow title challengers Atletico and Real Madrid.
Real themselves have been consistent with results of late and will likely head into this Clasico encounter in better spirits than last time out, when they ended up on the wrong side of a 4-0 scoreline at the Santiago Bernabeu, but even if their forwards turn up to the game in top form, it's Barcelona who will still be walking away with the points—and effectively the title.
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Zidane's recent revival
The international break coming straight after Real Madrid comprehensively beat Sevilla 4-0 means it's just over a month since Zinedine Zidane's men failed to win a fixture, the derby defeat to Atleti. That time passing, combined with a five-man win streak since, means things look good for Real Madrid—but it ignores context and performances.
Malaga drew with Real before the Atletico defeat and should have provided Zidane's first loss, but for the enormous profligacy of Duje Cop and Co. Levante also ran Real close, while Las Palmas certainly should have taken at least a point from their encounter. A late Casemiro header meant it finished 2-1 to Real instead.
Even against Sevilla, with what was an eventual landslide victory, it took Keylor Navas' heroics to keep Real in the lead from time to time and then, later, to preserve the clean sheet.
Zidane has rarely altered his 4-3-3 template, but last time out, with Gareth Bale back to fitness, he started to show alterations to the tactical plan: a shift to 4-4-2 when out of possession, a better spread of players in the middle third and the ability to counter with great effect.
Add in the stabilising presence of Casemiro holding the base of midfield and Toni Kroos being able to play a little further forward to support Luka Modric—instead of the out-of-form Isco or James Rodriguez—and things have slowly come together for Zidane and Madrid.
Balance of play
Real Madrid don't really have any choice about how to approach the match. On a political level, a sporting one and a professional one, they need to attack and try to win. A heavy beating in the reverse fixture demands—both from the board and from the fans—that they try to exact revenge, while the players themselves must surely want to suggest they are on-par with their great rivals.
That's not to say Real will try to dominate and run the entire 90 minutes, they're incapable of doing that, but their game plan will be based on how and when they can get behind Barcelona's defence and create chances.
Casemiro must continue in midfield—it's a non-negotiable part of the lineup. Without him, Barca's midfield will run riot in gaps between defence and midfield lines.
If fit, then the holy trident in attack will obviously be of paramount importance, with Karim Benzema's return against Sevilla very quickly showcasing once again how vital he is to the team as a total entity performing better than the sum of its parts.
Real have no option but to try to win. Third place is utterly irrelevant, but beating Barcelona gives just the glimmer of hope that the title might not be quite wrapped up just yet.
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona and Real Madrid are, of course, separated in La Liga's current table by one other: Atletico Madrid.
While Los Rojiblancos have for a long time looked the best-placed outfit to rival Barca's perceived dominance, they have stuttered over the last two weeks: a late loss to Sporting Gijon and injuries to no fewer than five centre-backs for this upcoming Jornada.
It's not inconceivable they could lose ground again this week as a result, and it provides another incentive for both teams in El Clasico.
If Real win, they can finally leapfrog Atletico and claim some sort of dominance in the capital city at least, despite losing to their rivals last month, and second place to the reigning European champions isn't exactly disastrous, even if it ignores underlying reasons.
For Barcelona, though, there is an even greater incentive at stake.
Two doubles in a treble
Beating Real Madrid is incentive enough for Barcelona in any game, but this time out, there is more to consider. With the Catalan club's wonderful mentality and relentless ability to find ways to win big games, that's exactly what is going to tilt the balance in this Clasico.
A win over their rivals means Barca will enjoy a 13-point gap between themselves and Real in third, with just seven matches to play. Should Atletico also slip up, it's 12 points from first to second.
La Liga would be effectively over.
The positives for Barcelona in this scenario are numerous: They can risk everything and rest everybody for the second leg against Atleti in the UEFA Champions League, should they wish, safe in the knowledge that nobody will be catching them in league play. It's conceivable that the title could be mathematically wrapped up by late April, but this weekend is when it could really be won.
Add in the cachet and kudos of winning the title by doing the double over both Atleti and Real this season and there's little else that Barcelona could be offered this weekend to go full throttle at winning El Clasico.
They have the players who individually will expose any tactical weaknesses in Real's approach and a killer front line of their own who not only need a half-chance to score, but will likely be serviced far better than Real's troika of attackers.
Everything is lined up for Barcelona for a big Clasico victory, and the celebrations at the end of the game, should they emerge triumphant, will likely underline just how pivotal three points this time would be.
