Early NFL Free-Agent Moves Most Likely to Bust

The first day of the NFL's 2016 free-agency period is now in the books, and it brought a flurry of activity.

The market officially opened at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday. However, teams were allowed to spend the two previous days contacting player agents and hashing out deals in principle. This meant a number of headline-grabbing deals were finalized shortly after the market opened, and the initial flow of activity was fast and furious.

Of course, most of those big moves involved a whole lot of dollars—which increases the chances that those deals will fall short in the results department.

We're going to examine the early moves from the 2016 free-agency period that have high bust potential. These are the big-money deals that could easily fall flat because of factors such as player age, injury history and scheme fit.

Do you agree with our list? Be sure to let us know in the comments section.

Buccaneers Add Guard J.R. Sweezy

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers added to the interior of their offensive line Wednesday by bringing in former Seattle Seahawks guard J.R. Sweezy.

According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Sweezy's new deal is for five years and $32.5 million. Rand Getlin of NFL Network added that $21 million will come in Sweezy's first three years with the team. That's an average of $7 million per season, which doesn't seem bad for a guy who has started at least 15 games in each of the last three seasons.

The reason why this signing could prove to be a mistake, though, is that Sweezy hasn't exactly played at an all-star level.

Pro Football Focus rated Sweezy just 131st overall among all guards for the 2015 season while crediting him with allowing four sacks, four quarterback hits and 24 pressures. In 2014 Sweezy ranked 125th overall with four sacks, six quarterback hits and 23 pressures allowed.

The Buccaneers must be banking on the 6'5", 298-pound guard's improving and thriving in a new system. Otherwise, the team would likely have offered a contract more in line with what a backup guard might receive.

Tampa needs a starter at guard, of course, as Logan Mankins recently announced his retirement. However, this move could be a mistake if Sweezy doesn't find a way to drastically improve in his new home.

Eagles Give Quarterback Sam Bradford $22 Million Guaranteed

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The Philadelphia Eagles actually signed quarterback Sam Bradford to a two-year contract before the start of free agency, but the deal gained more bust potential after the market officially opened.

According to OverTheCap.com, Bradford's new deal is for $35 million over two years with $22 million fully guaranteed. Another $4 million is guaranteed for injury only. Considering the deal the Houston Texans just gave Brock Osweiler (more on that later), this doesn't seem like a bad contract for a starting NFL quarterback.

Here's the thing, though: There's no guarantee Bradford will be the starter in Philadelphia over the next two years.

On Wednesday, the Eagles signed quarterback Chase Daniel, who played under new Eagles head coach Doug Pederson while with the Kansas City Chiefs. According to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, his deal is worth $21 million over three years with $12 million guaranteed.

What's interesting about Daniel's deal is that there are escalators in his contract that could increase its value up to $36 million. These can essentially be met only if Daniel somehow earns the starting job.

Would the Eagles really give $22 million in guaranteed money to Bradford and then let Daniel take over the starting job? Perhaps so, especially if Bradford struggles early in the 2016 season.

According to Rapoport, Pederson likes Daniel and considers him "more than simply a backup."

If Bradford keeps the starting job in Philadelphia and plays well, then the Eagles come out ahead. There's also the chance the team can still pull the trigger on a trade. However, it will be difficult to call this move anything but a bust if the Eagles end up forking over $22 million for a pine-rider.

Lions Add Receiver Marvin Jones

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Former Cincinnati Bengals receiver Marvin Jones was arguably the best available option at his position when the market opened Wednesday. Still, it feels like the Detroit Lions may have overpaid a bit to land him.

According to Rapoport, Jones' new deal will pay him $40 million over five years, with $20 million guaranteed. This feels like a hefty contract for a guy who has never been more than a No. 2 receiver at the NFL level and only has two strong seasons in his career.

Jones racked up 712 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns in 2013. He then produced 816 yards and four scores in 2015. Despite being drafted in 2012, Jones has just 1,729 yards and 15 touchdowns in his career.

There is also a bit of an injury history with Jones, who missed the entire 2014 season with foot and ankle injuries.

The addition could pay off, of course. The Lions made a similar move back in 2014 when they signed Golden Tate to a five-year, $31 million deal after he only had a couple of big years. Tate has given the Lions 2,144 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns over the past two years.

There's no guarantee this move will work out for Detroit, though, while there's a legitimate chance that it becomes a bust. Jones benefited from playing opposite A.J. Green in Cincinnati, while Tate has spent the past two years across from the now-retired Calvin Johnson.

Detroit seems to be going into the 2016 season with two No. 2 receivers and hoping that one can emerge as a No. 1. If this plan fails to materialize or Jones suffers another injury-marred season, this deal might look like a mistake.

Rams Retain Mark Barron with $45 Million Deal

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Former first-round pick Mark Barron moved from safety to outside linebacker for the Rams in 2015 and performed quite well.

Pro Football Focus rated him 15th overall among 4-3 outside linebackers for the 2015 season, and he finished the year with 116 tackles and one sack.

Still, it was a bit surprising to see Barron land the kind of deal he did Wednesday. According to Tom Pelissero of USA Today, the Rams are bringing him back on a five-year, $45 million deal.

If Barron can continue to play like a top-15 player at his position, then this is a fair deal. However, Los Angeles is risking a lot by expecting Barron to do exactly that.

He rarely lived up to his first-round draft status in his first three years in the league, which is why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded him to the Rams for late-round picks in 2014. He has just one full season under his belt as an NFL outside linebacker.

On top of everything, as a converted safety, Barron is undersized for the outside linebacker position. The Rams list him at just 6'2" and 213 pounds.

This could turn out to be a brilliant gamble by the Rams, of course. Barron does bring some versatility and is coming off a strong season. However, it could just as easily look disastrous a few seasons down the road.

What could potentially make Barron's deal look even worse down the line is the fact the Rams allowed emerging cornerback Janoris Jenkins to sign with the New York Giants, per NFL Network's Albert Breer, and rising safety Rodney McCloud to sign with the Eagles, per NFL Network's Charley Casserly.

If Jenkins and McCloud thrive in their new homes and Barron is merely average, this deal could look pretty bad.

Jaguars Land Malik Jackson with Megadeal

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We're going to start by saying that former Denver Broncos defensive end Malik Jackson is a talented player and is coming off an outstanding season. The Jacksonville Jaguars should be glad they were able to get him.

Pro Football Focus rated Jackson ninth overall among 3-4 defensive ends for the 2015 season.

Of course, he didn't come cheap. According to Rapoport, Jackson's new deal is worth $90 million over six years with $42 million guaranteed. The size of the deal means that if it doesn't work out, it could be seen as a huge bust—and there are a few reasons why it might not.

For starters, it's difficult to know what to expect from a productive player when he is plucked from a championship-caliber defense. The Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns signed linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger, respectively, away from the Baltimore Ravens after Baltimore's Super Bowl season of 2012. Neither has lived up to expectations, and Ellerbe isn't even with Miami anymore.

Jackson will also have to make the transition from Denver's 3-4 base defense to the 4-3 system in Jacksonville. There's no guarantee the transition will go smoothly. Jackson did play in a 4-3 with Denver in 2014, but he wasn't a regular starter. He played defensive tackle in 2013.

There's also the fact that Jackson has only been a full-time starter for one season. Can he handle the role over the long haul for the Jaguars? We'll have to wait a few years to find out. If the answer is no, this deal could bust in a big way.

Meeting expectations here could be hard, because they are going to be huge.

Texans Sign Quarterback Brock Osweiler

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The Houston Texans made a couple of big moves Wednesday. However, their most significant move—and the riskiest one—was stealing quarterback Brock Osweiler away from the Denver Broncos with a four-year contract.

According to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, the deal is worth $72 million with $37 million in guaranteed money.

The move has bust potential because free-agent quarterbacks almost always come with bust potential, and because $37 million is a heck of a lot of money to guarantee to a guy with seven career starts on his NFL resume.

It's obvious that the 6'8", 240-pound Osweiler has enough size for the position, and it's clear he also has the physical tools to succeed. The problem is that he is inexperienced and has yet to prove he can consistently play at a high level.

Pro Football Focus rated Osweiler 26th overall among all quarterbacks for the 2015 season.

What might be even more concerning is the fact the Broncos, who just watched quarterback Peyton Manning retire Monday, didn't feel it necessary to match Houston's offer. Denver knows the Arizona State product well, yet the team decided it was better to look elsewhere to solidify the quarterback position.

"While we did offer a very competitive and fair long-term contract to Brock, we ultimately had to remain disciplined while continuing to assemble a roster that can compete for championships," Broncos general manager John Elway said, per the team's official website.

Of course, if Osweiler takes the Texans to a Super Bowl in the next four years, people are going to point to the Broncos as the team that blew it in the 2016 offseason.

Jaguars Sign Safety Tashaun Gipson

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The Jaguars filled another one of their needs Wednesday when they lured former Pro Bowl safety Tashaun Gipson away from the Cleveland Browns.

According to Ryan O'Halloran of the Florida Times-Union, the deal could be worth up to $35.5 million over the next five years. This would mean Gipson will be getting just over $7 million per season on average. This isn't really that much for a guy who, when healthy, is one of the better ball-hawking safeties in the NFL.

The problem here—and why Jacksonville's deal could easily bust—is that Gipson hasn't exactly been a model of perfect health over the past two years. His standout 2014 campaign came to an end after 11 games because of a knee injury, and he missed three games this past season because of an ankle ailment.

Injuries also caused Gipson's effectiveness to drop off in 2015, a year after NFL Network listed him at No. 67 on its list of the top 100 players. Pro Football Focus rated him just 182nd overall among safeties this past season. Only six safeties were rated lower.

The Jaguars will be gambling on Gipson's being able to return to his pre-injury form and also to stay healthy over the next several seasons. If he fails to do either, this deal could look like bust material.