NCAA Conference Tournaments 2016: Last-Second Predictions for Major Conferences
Part of what makes March Madness the greatest sporting event in the world is the appetizer that leads up to the Big Dance.
That would be the conference tournaments, where teams vie for automatic tournament berths and/or optimal seeding. There's plenty of pride on the line, too, as conference rivals face off under high stakes and, in most cases, for the final time this season.
Tournament season is already underway, but it will really get going later this week when the power conferences get their events rolling.
Here are last-minute predictions for each of those power-conference tournaments.
ACC: Hurricane Warning
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The ACC's blue bloods continue to represent the conference on the national stage. But the conference tourney has shown in recent years how deep the ACC field can be.
Duke hasn't won the ACC tournament title since 2011. North Carolina's drought stretches back to 2008. That trend should continue in 2016.
Miami has the No. 3 seed behind Virginia and the regular-season champion Tar Heels. They're 9-2 in their last 11 and would be 10-1 if they hadn't sleepwalked through their regular-season finale at Virginia Tech.
Hopefully for Cane fans, that was a wake-up call that came just in time. Miami's deep backcourt and solid bigs can give anyone fits, especially when Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan get hot from the field. After a double bye, they'll take care of a young Florida State squad, take a rubber match with the Cavaliers and then put away a North Carolina team that's looking ahead to the big tournament.
American: Houston Punches Its Card
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Temple is probably in. Ditto Cincinnati. Tulsa's in the thick of the bubble.
That leaves Houston on the outside looking in. In turn, that means a motivated Cougars team for the AAC tourney.
The culprit is a putrid schedule that only ranks 151st in the nation, according to KenPom.com. Earlier losses to South Florida and Grand Canyon are millstones around the team's neck. But now they're playing their best basketball of the season, going 9-2 over their last 11, with the only losses coming to SMU (which isn't eligible for postseason play this season) and the aforementioned Temple. Wins over Connecticut and Cincinnati to close out the regular season were impressive.
This is Houston's Super Bowl, and they have the offensive firepower (four players averaging double figures, a 15th ranking in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings) to hang with anyone. As USA Today bracketologist Shelby Mast recently told the Houston Chronicle:
"As much as I'd love them to be closer to the bubble, I just can't do it. The non-conference strength of schedule is just way too bad, and I feel they need to win the (conference) tournament to get in. (But) I wouldn't be surprised if they do."
Atlantic 10: VCU Emerges from a Crowded Field
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When the regular-season horn sounded, six A-10 teams (nearly half the conference) were within four games of the lead, which itself was jointly held by three squads.
VCU was one of those squads. Despite head coach Shaka Smart's departure, the Rams under Will Wade still make their living on rugged team defense, where they rank 15th nationally per KenPom.com.ย
They also have a balanced team offense that features four players averaging double figures in scoring. Led by two seniors in Melvin Johnson and Korey Billbury, the Rams had the experience and the depth to win a school-record 14 conference games and should be tough enough to make a run to the title.
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Big 12: West Virginia Shoots Down the Jayhawks
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Kansas hasn't won a Big 12 tournament since 2013. The drought will continue unabated.
The top-ranked Jayhawks cruised to the regular-season crown, and coach Bill Self will be hard-pressed to keep his players and himself from dreaming about the bigger field. Meanwhile, West Virginia has been playing its best ball of the season, toppling Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Baylor to close out their schedule.
Oklahoma can still beat anyone, but they've flagged lately; turns out shooting 50 percent from three-point range as a team is hard to sustain over the long term.
Plenty of teams can and will make noise in this loaded conference. But West Virginia, with its 11-man rotation and grueling press defense, seems built for tourney runs like this.
Big East: Xavier Levels Its Muskets
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Villanova is a great team. Xavier might be the country's most underrated group.
The KenPom.com rankings have the Musketeers in the top 20 offensively and top 40 defensively. Nine players average at least 10 minutes of court time each game. That means they're balanced.
This is a chance for Xavier to make its mark. They certainly have the momentum, having toppled Villanova on February 24. That was their first win over the Wildcats in seven tries in the Big East.
Only a silly loss at Seton Hall prevented the Musketeers from finishing the regular season on a six-game winning streak. With due respect to the rest of the conference, the Big East is a two-team race at its apex. Xavier will down Villanova again, this time for the tournament crown.
Big Ten: This Is Sparty
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Tom Izzo's squads sometimes go missing for stretches of the regular season. Whenever that happens, just yell "March," and they'll come running.
Maryland has faded down the stretch. So has Iowa. Indiana is dangerous but still isn't a lockdown defensive group. Michigan State just wins this time of year, and there's no reason to suspect an aberration in the Big Ten tournament this week.
They'll get it done behind Denzel Valentine, the newly minted Big Ten Player of the Year. He's in the classic Michigan State mold: do everything well, do nothing flashily and just win, baby.
โI just want to be remembered as a winner,โ said Valentine, according to Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press. โThatโs what separates you at this school, is winning. This school is known for Final Fours, tough play, Big Ten Championships and everything like that. But thereโs only been two national championship teams, and I want to be a part of the third.โ
We'll see about that last part. But he's certainly the odds-on favorite to cut down a conference net for Michigan State.
Pac-12: Ducks and Cover
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It's tempting to go with the hot hand here. That would be Arizona, which has overcome a rash of injuries to hit its stride lately. Or perhaps California, the team whose young talent has finally put it all together.
But Oregon has quietly been a tough out all season, and they'll be that way in the Pac-12 tourney, too.
The Ducks finished their season on a five-game win streak. And that's no fluke; they've run up a 25-6 record and have only lost consecutive games once all season. They sit at No. 4 nationally in RPI, with wins over tough groups like Baylor and Alabama on their nonconference slate.
Behind Dillon Brooks, who plays older than his sophomore year might suggest, Oregon is tough, and it is clutch. They'll quietly earn a tourney title to go with their quiet regular-season Pac-12 crown.
SEC: Aggies Put It All Together
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The SEC has some nice teams, but when it comes down to brass tacks, Kentucky and Texas A&M have separated themselves from the pack.
Both teams have struggled with consistency throughout the season, but on Saturday the Aggies reasserted themselves by beating Vanderbiltโa team that really came on late in the season. Texas A&M appears to have righted the ship, now having won six straight after a four-game free fall a month ago.
Arguably the biggest win in that stretch? Kentucky, which Texas A&M knocked off in overtime. Kentucky is a solid team behind Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray, but world-beaters they are not. The Aggies defense (17th nationally, per KenPom.com) will be the difference, and Tyler Davis and company will run roughshod over Kentucky's hard-to-trust frontcourt.ย
Coach of the Year candidate Billy Kennedy and his guys will have a new piece of hardware for College Station when this one's over.
All statistics are current as of March 7 and provided byย ESPN.comย unless otherwise noted.
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