NFL Free-Agency Rumors: Buying or Selling the Latest Talk

We've reached the doorstep of 2016 NFL free agency. At 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, the door to the new market period will officially open.

Of course, teams have been able to contact the agents of pending free agents and begin preliminary negotiations since Monday. This has only added to the growing storm of NFL rumor that has blown in with the eve of free agency.

Are the Oakland Raiders really the favorites to land Kelechi Osemele? Will Calvin Johnson make a definitive decision on his future? Does Robert Griffin III have any shot of resurrecting his career in 2016?

Join us as we cut through the latest NFL chatter and try to decipher which rumors we can buy as being grounded in reality and which are wisps of smoke in the wind.

Buy: The Eagles Want to Quickly Move On from the Chip Kelly Era

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The flurry of moves announced by the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday suggests that the franchise is very much trying to disassemble the on-field product constructed by former head coach Chip Kelly last season.

Kelly, who was given full roster control, made a number of headline-grabbing acquisitions during the 2015 offseason. He traded for quarterback Sam Bradford and linebacker Kiko Alonso. He signed running backs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews in free agency. He also signed cornerback Byron Maxwell.

On Monday, the Eagles agreed to trade Alonso and Maxwell to the Miami Dolphins. The team later agreed to trade Murray to the Tennessee Titans.

Mathews could soon be on his way out, as well.

According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, the Eagles "made it known" Monday that Mathews was available for trade—though that was before the team agreed to move Murray. According to Jeff McLane of Philly.com, both Murray and Maxwell will be required to restructure their contracts as part of the deal.

The pending trades likely have as much to do with contracts as cleansing the proverbial palate. According to Spotrac.com, the contracts the Eagles gave to Murray and to Maxwell combined for $103 million in total contract dollars.

Still, the moves show that the roster that Kelly assembled in 2015 won't fit the team's vision for its future.

At least the Eagles see some promise and value in one of Kelly's big-name acquisitions. The team recently agreed a new two-year, $35 million deal with Bradford.

Sell: Robert Griffin III Will Be a Popular Target on the Open Market

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On Monday, the Washington Redskins made official the release of former first-round draft pick Robert Griffin III. Shortly after, he began popping up on several lists of the top pending free agents.

Pro Football Focus, for example, ranked Griffin as its No. 3 free-agent quarterback, behind only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler. ProFootballTalk lists Griffin at No. 50 on its list of the top 100 free agents.

Placing Griffin above guys such as Brandon Weeden and Matt Moore feels about right. However, it's difficult to believe he will really be in high demand for a couple of reasons.

For one, we don't know how well, or even if, Griffin can play at an NFL level. He was benched for the 2015 season and played in just nine games the season before. He finished his 2014 campaign with just four touchdowns and six interceptions. He was also rated 67th overall among all quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus for that year.

Griffin also has a significant injury history that is going to cause teams to exercise caution. A torn ACL capped his one good pro season in 2012, and he hasn't been able to replicate the success he had as a rookie since.

There's also the reality that dual-threat quarterbacks like Griffin seem to be falling out of favor at the NFL level. Colin Kaepernick—another scrambling quarterback with a load of natural yet unrefined arm talent, was benched by the San Francisco 49ers after nine games last season.

The reality is that teams looking to fill a starting role are likely to look to guys like Fitzpatrick and Osweiler or to the upcoming draft before they turn their attention to Griffin. There will be some interest, sure, but with Griffin's history and high profile, that interest will probably be limited to looking at him as a backup.

Buy: The Running Back Position Is in Demand This Offseason

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In Super Bowl 50, the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers showed that the running game can still have a prominent role in the modern NFL. The Broncos and Panthers were ranked 17th and second in rushing yards per game, respectively.

With a number of talented running backs headed to market—such as Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory and Ronnie Hillman—it was fair to wonder if the running back position would be a popular one during free agency this year.

Well, so far it seems to be a very popular position among buyers. We've already mentioned that the Titans are swinging a trade for DeMarco Murray, and it appears that a couple of the free-agent backs are beginning to draw serious interest.

According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport (via NFL.com), Martin has generated interest from "at least six teams," though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are hoping to bring him back. This isn't too surprising, as Martin is just 27 years old and rushed for 1,402 yards with six scores for Tampa last season.

Ivory, who led the AFC in rushing with 1,070 yards while with the New York Jets in 2015, also seems to be a popular target. ESPN's Adam Caplan has reported that the Oakland Raiders are one of a "bunch" of teams seeking to add Ivory.

Not every edition of free agency brings with it multiple starting-caliber running backs. This year's does, so it's easy for us to buy multiple teams going after the top-end guys.

Sell: Calvin Johnson Will Make His Decision on Future Before March 9

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*Update The Detroit Lions announced on Tuesday that Calvin Johnson was indeed headed toward retirement. Whether he is truly done or is simply positioning himself for a Brett-Favre-style return remains to be seen. What is for sure is that Johnson is retired for now, and this is a move we got wrong.

We'll own being wrong here, but feel free to mock in the comments section.

Johnson announcing his decision really was the right thing to do, but it was still a mild surprise, for reasons which you can read about here.

Johnson stated after the 2015 season that he was contemplating retirement. According to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, the Lions had been telling other teams that they hope to know Johnson's plans "within the next 24 hours."

There are a couple of reasons why the Lions would want to know whether Johnson plans to play this season. For starters, his 2016 base salary is set to be nearly $16 million, according to Spotrac.

Detroit is going to want to work quickly to rebuild its receiving corps if Johnson doesn't return. If the team doesn't know his plans, it could cause both significant strategic and financial issues.

The problem is that Johnson simply doesn't have many reasons to make a snappy decision, aside from doing right by his longtime NFL employer. Perhaps more importantly, not giving a definitive answer actually benefits Johnson if he is looking to return in 2016 but not with his longtime employer.

"The Lions can release Johnson, freeing up a bit more than $11 million in cap space, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing for Johnson," Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk recently explained. "He’d be free from having to repay any of his signing bonus and would be a free agent in the event he retires and later decides to resume his playing career."

The reality is that it's just difficult to believe that Johnson is going to deliver a quick and a clear answer on his future plans simply because the Lions need him to do it.

Buy: Kelechi Osemele Is a Hot Commodity for Up-and-Coming Teams

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We recently rated offensive guard Kelechi Osemele at the top of our list of pending free-agent offensive linemen. He is young at just 26 years old and offers versatility—he played both guard and tackle for the Baltimore Ravens in 2015.

Osemele is also effective in the trenches. Pro Football Focus rated him 13th overall among guards for the 2015 season.

While we have no way of knowing if Osemele will land the biggest contract or be the most productive lineman to come out of this year's free-agent class, we do know that he has generated the most buzz in the early stages of the agent-contact period.

Osemele seems to be an especially popular name among teams that appear to be on the rise.

Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports believes the Oakland Raiders are the favorites to land Osemele and that a potential deal could exceed the $10 million-per-year range.

ESPN's Adam Caplan confirmed Garafolo's report, writing that the Raiders are making a strong push to secure Osemele. According to Caplan, sources have indicated that Osemele could be sought as a tackle depending on what the Raiders decide to do with starting left tackle Donald Penn, another pending free agent.

Oakland isn't the only team being linked to Osemele at this stage, however. NFL Media's Rand Getlin reported that the Minnesota Vikings are also making a push to sign the young lineman when the market officially opens. Getlin also suggested Osemele will be getting a deal worth around $10 million per year.

Not only is Osemele popular right now, but it also appears he is about to cash in.

*Update: NFL Media's Rand Getlin reported on Tuesday morning that the Raiders and Osemele have agreed to a deal in principle.

Sell: Alex Mack Is Interested in Returning to Cleveland

Associated Press

Center Alex Mack is coming off his third Pro Bowl season and is going to be one of the top offensive linemen available on the open market. His agent, Tim Younger, recently suggested that Mack is interested in returning the Cleveland Browns.

Younger said, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com:

"

We view Alex's decision to void as procedural. It was built into his contract to afford him maximum flexibility. For the first time in his career, he will be experiencing true free agency. Although we anticipate interest from multiple teams, he was very impressed with Hue Jackson and returning to the Browns certainly remains on the table.

"

Let's be clear here: Rejoining the Browns is probably a possibility for Mack, but only if Cleveland is willing to be the top bidder for his services.

Two years ago, Cleveland gave Mack the transition tag. The Jacksonville Jaguars tendered an offer that would have paid Mack $42 million over five years and given him the option to void the deal after two seasons. Cleveland matched the offer, and Mack became the highest-paid center in the NFL.

Two years later, Mack is no longer the league's highest-paid middle man. That may soon change, though, because he exercised his option to void. Mack is interested in chasing the money, and if he is willing to give a discount, it will probably be to a contender with championship aspirations—not the lowly Browns.

Bleacher Report NFL Insider Jason Cole is already reporting that the Atlanta Falcons are showing strong interest in Mack.

Cleveland has a number of other top players headed to market—including tackle Mitchell Schwartz, wideout Travis Benjamin and safety Tashaun Gipson. The Browns will likely find it difficult to field the top offer for Mack, and if they can't, he isn't likely to return to Cleveland in 2016.

Buy: Browns to Pursue Receiver Marvin Jones

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Wideout Marvin Jones is expected to be one of the most heavily pursued receivers on the free-agent market. The 6'2", 198-pound pass-catcher is coming off a strong season with the Cincinnati Bengals and is only now approaching his 26th birthday.

Last season, Jones served as Cincinnati's No. 2 wideout and finished the year with 65 receptions, 816 yards and four touchdowns. Pro Football Focus rated him 50th overall among receivers for the year.

According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, there's a chance that Jones will remain in the AFC North next season but make the trip up north to join the Browns. According to Cabot, a source has indicated that Cleveland will go after Jones once the market opens.

This potential move almost makes too much sense to be false. The Browns are in need of wide receiver help—if wideout Travis Benjamin departs in free agency, the need will only increase. The Browns also have ties to Jones, as new head coach Hue Jackson was his offensive coordinator in Cincinnati last season.

Jones would step in and immediately become the No. 2 wideout in Cleveland. Pending on the status of Josh Gordon and what the Browns do in the draft, Jones could even serve as the team's No. 1.

Financially, the Browns have the firepower to make a strong push to sign Jones. According to Spotrac, the team should have nearly $43 million in cap space to play with this offseason.

Whether Jones has any interest in joining the Browns is a different question. However, we buy that they are interested in him.

Sell: The Bengals Are Keeping Their Playoff Roster Intact

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Marvin Jones isn't the only significant player the Bengals are set to lose in free agency this year. According to Spotrac, 13 Bengals are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents this week, and many of those are starters or guys who regularly see the field.

Big names include cornerbacks Adam Jones and Leon Hall, wideout Mohamed Sanu, safeties George Iloka and Reggie Nelson, linebacker Vincent Rey and right tackle Andre Smith. Many of these players are already drawing serious interest.

Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com has reported that the Browns are interested in Adam Jones, as well as Marvin Jones. According to Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk, the Baltimore Ravens are also expected to pursue the cornerback and return specialist.

Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has reported that the Vikings have reached out to representatives of Nelson and Rey. Seeing these two draw interest from Minnesota isn't a surprise. Current Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer previously served as Cincinnati's defensive coordinator.

Iloka has drawn interest from the Vikings and Bengals, as well as the Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants and Detroit Lions, according to Jim Owczarski of Cincinnati.com.

The Bengals are sure to make a push to re-sign sever of the team's core pieces. However, with this many guys already drawing interest elsewhere, it's difficult to buy that the team that made the postseason the past five years will be intact one month from now.

Buy: Keeping Brock Osweiler Will Be Difficult for Denver

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It's going to be difficult for the Bengals to keep the majority of their big-name free agents this offseason. It's going to be equally difficult for Denver to keep its top guys, too.

The Broncos have several top-notch players such as Malik Jackson, Evan Mathis and Danny Trevathan headed to market. However, because of the importance of the position—and the recent retirement of Peyton Manning—the most important name right now is quarterback Brock Osweiler.

According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Broncos have offered Osweiler a three-year deal in the $13 million-per-year range.

Denver's offer might not be enough.

NFL Media's Ian Rapoport (via NFL.com) has reported that the Houston Texans have emerged "as a legitimate threat" to steal Osweiler away from Denver. Rapoport also stated that Osweiler isn't likely to take Denver's current offer and that the Broncos will have to up the ante to keep him off the market.

It's likely that Houston isn't the only team that will show significant interest in Osweiler in the coming days. Other quarterback-needy teams such as the Browns, the New York Jets and the Los Angeles Rams will probably take long looks at the young passer as well.

This is why we can easily buy the Broncos struggling to bring Osweiler back for the 2016 season.