NFL Free-Agent Signings: Analyzing Reported Offseason Moves

Free agency and the new league year for the NFL officially start Wednesday, so much of the free-agent chatter that can be considered actual news and not rumor or speculation has been players re-signing with their current teams or receiving the franchise tag.

Many of those tagged, like Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller, will stay put with their teams, and the only question is how long it will be before they either sign the tender for a ridiculous amount of cash or negotiate a long-term contract for a super-duper ridiculous amount of cash.

However, some of the signings and contract tags are worth a closer look, if not only for their impact on the team, but the market for players at their position. Miller's impending contract talks could very well influence how much Denver is willing to pay, say, quarterback Brock Osweiler to stick around.

Plus, some players have been released by their respective teams. Those cuts will certainly have ripple effects on the market at various positions. Here's a look at some of the big offseason moves heading into the official free-agency period. 


Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, New York Jets

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New York made the obvious move by extending a non-exclusive franchise tag offer to Muhammad Wilkerson, who racked up 64 tackles and 12 sacks last year before suffering a broken leg in the final game of the season.

Wilkerson is one of the top players in the league at his position, but the salary that comes with the franchise tag—$15.7 million, per Spotrac—might be too much to bear for a Jets team with weaknesses at several positions. What does this mean? Well, just like last year, it means trade speculation. 

NJ.com's Dom Cosentino spoke to retired general manager Bill Polian about what trade negotiations for Wilkerson might look like: 

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Polian said it wouldn't be inconceivable for the Jets to ask for as much as two first-round picks at the beginning of any talks, just to gauge other teams' level of interest. That price is obviously prohibitive, but it would also be just an entry point.

The Raiders, for one, have an estimated $70 million in cap space—and a lot of spending to do to reach the cash spending floor mandated by the league's collective bargaining agreement. They might be willing to do a deal for Wilkerson.

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Two first-round picks also happens to be the price a team would pay to sign Wilkerson outright with a non-exclusive franchise tag in place. As noted, the Jets won't get nearly that much in return if they do decide to trade Wilkerson, but moving him might be the smart choice.

Pawning off his eventual salary—and the minor risk that his broken leg impacts his playing time next season or future production—can allow the Jets the freedom to address their needs at quarterback and along the offensive line.

Oakland is capable of taking on a monster player with a monster contract, and could perhaps be inclined to part with a first-rounder considering they already have great young talent like David Carr, Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper at crucial positions.

The Jets could very well trade Wilkerson with an eye toward snagging someone like Clemson's Kevin Dodd in the first round as a potential replacement. 

Placing the non-exclusive tag on Wilkerson was a necessary move for the Jets, and they may still yet decide that his proven production over the past five seasons is worth a long-term deal.

Olivier Vernon, DE, Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins hit Olivier Vernon with the transition tag to start the month of March. Few players have been better at rushing quarterbacks from the blind side over the past three years, as noted by ESPN Stats & Info: 

The transition tag allows Vernon to negotiate with other teams, with the Dolphins retaining the right to match any offer. With the Dolphins struggling to create cap room as it is, it's hard to imagine Vernon staying with the team. CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora didn't like the use of the transition tag: 

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After basically flexing their spending muscle now they take a stand over a few million bucks with an emerging pass rusher not even yet in his prime -- in a market salivating for pass-rushers and so few available options. Oh, and the Dolphins' heavy spending has them in cap purgatory and very vulnerable to front-loaded deals from any of the teams with massive cap space. Of course, they could re-do the Suh contract, but pushing that money further out would be the most foolish thing of all.

I'd have franchised him, tried to trade him or lived with him for another year in what had better be a year of improvement for perpetually moribund Miami.

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It's a harsh assessment, but one can understand why the Dolphins made a move that offers even the slim chance of saving a few bucks. Per Spotrac, the Fins are 20th in cap space available, only possible thanks to restructuring Ndamukong Suh's massive deal and releasing a few other players. There is a good chance they get outbid by a similarly desperate team with more money to spend, like the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Pro Football Focus' John Kosko wants to see the Jags (and Raiders) make a move:

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The Jaguars and Raiders are two teams that should pursue signing Vernon. The Jaguars have the most cap space in the NFL, and would easily be able to work out a deal that would make it impossible for Miami to match. While they will see Dante Fowler return from a torn ACL that sidelined him for his rookie season, he is still an unknown commodity. The Jaguars had just three front-seven players grade positively in pass rushing, with LB Telvin Smith being the only starter to do so.

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The New York Giants might also take a close look at signing Vernon, seeing as they're reportedly interested in another defensive end (more on that in a moment).

Is there a way for the Dolphins to take the sting out of losing Vernon? Well, they could turn to...

Mario Williams, DE, FA

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills cut 31-year-old Mario Williams last Tuesday after a disappointing five-sack season in 2015. Head coach Rex Ryan's defensive philosophy didn't jibe with Williams, so the team decided to part ways with the aging and expensive pass-rusher, freeing up quite a bit of cap space in the process.

While it's certainly a painful move for some Bills fans who came to enjoy his usually stellar production, the move allows Ryan to better instill his defensive tactics, which worked quite well in New York, and use money to fix other areas of need (wide receiver, inside linebacker).

In any case, Williams' release into the free-agency wilderness has already prompted the Dolphins to bring him down for a visit, per Canfora.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported Sunday that the Giants were bringing him in, while Fox Sports' Mike Garafolo noted the Jaguars' interest. 

Should New York or Jacksonville snag Williams, Miami might start to sweat. They would lose one contingency plan for Vernon's possible departure, and it might make other teams in need of pass-rushers more desperate to throw money at Vernon.

The fates of Williams and Jason Pierre-Paul will have a huge impact on Miami's offseason plans as they try to create a roster capable of winning in the short term.

Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

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There have been a smattering of noteworthy signings this offseason, with the biggest being the two-year, $36 million deal Sam Bradford inked to remain with the Philadelphia Eagles.

It's quite the monetary commitment, but with NFL teams desperate for competent quarterbacks these days, it's a fairly sound one. When healthy, Bradford ranges somewhere between substandard, competent and above-average. Here's a look at his splits from last season as an example:

Month	CMP/ATT	YDS	CMP %	AVG	TD	INT	RAT
September	73/117	678	62.4	5.80	3	4	72.5
October	97/157	1,088	61.8	6.93	6	6	79.3
November	44/61	531	72.1	8.71	2	0	109.4
December	102/159	1,108	64.2	6.97	6	3	89.3
January	30/38	320	78.9	8.42	2	1	108.3

Some Eagles fans will understandably feel queasy about the team committing this much money to the injury-prone Bradford. However, Bleeding Green Nation's Matt Harkenreader noted the structure of the contract—with the Eagles potentially able to wiggle out of $4 million of the $8 million guaranteed in 2017, per Rapoport—makes this a decent situation for the franchise: 

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Make no mistake - this is not a two-year contract. This is a one-year contract with a second-year option. The simple reasoning behind the structure is a win-win for the Eagles. If Bradford plays terribly next season, the Eagles can move on relatively painlessly on the rather safe assumption that he will find a suitor elsewhere on the market. I realize the Bradford haters are convinced that he is garbage, but if quarterbacks like Matt Flynn, Brian Hoyer, and Josh McCown can routinely find work, Bradford can too.

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It was clearly an acceptable, if slightly precarious situation for Bradford, who told Bob Grotz of the Delaware County Daily Times, "I just wanted to be back in Philly. And my agent felt the contract was good for both sides."

Bradford's signing speaks to the paucity of options at the position. It came soon after Washington applied the franchise tag to Kirk Cousins, which might not have been coincidental, according to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio: "Per a league source, Washington was concerned that the Eagles would make a run at Cousins, if Washington either didn’t tag him at all, or if Washington applied only the transition tag."

With those two players off the market, the likes of Osweiler and Robert Griffin III are certainly going to get long looks from quarterback-needy teams (assuming Denver doesn't quickly snap up the former). With as many as 10 teams interested, according to Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman, Griffin could even drum up a bidding war for his services. 

The Eagles hold the No. 13 pick in the 2016 draft, so the teams drafting behind them are probably breathing easier knowing the Eagles are now unlikely to use that pick on a quarterback.

Los Angeles drafts at No. 15 and is in great need of a quarterback after moribund performances from Nick Foles and Case Keenum last season. The Jets and Houston Texans could also explore using their pick on a quarterback.