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What We Learned About 2016 Free Agency at the NFL Combine

Zach KruseFeb 26, 2016

A gathering spot for top decision-makers from all 32 teams and a horde of media members, the NFL Scouting Combine is the perfect setting for a treasure cove of information regarding free agency. 

General managers and head coaches are questioned on a number of topics, including players expected to hit the open market and the ongoing negotiations with those players. Some teams are looser with the information, while others hold their cards closer to their chest.

Either way, there is still plenty to learn from Indianapolis. 

In the following slides, we will analyze what the information gathered at the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine means for next month's free-agency period. 

Notable News and Notes

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Some notable news from the NFL Scouting Combine:

  • Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert ensured linebacker Lawrence Timmons will remain in Pittsburgh, according to Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com
  • Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan said quarterback Kirk Cousins wants to be back in Washington, per John Keim of ESPN.com
  • Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome said he plans to use the franchise tag on kicker Justin Tucker if the two sides can't agree on a deal, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com
  • Bills head coach Rex Ryan is skeptical of Mario Williams—who is due almost $20 million on the team's cap next season—returning to Buffalo for 2016, per Rosenthal
  • Broncos general manager John Elway conceded linebacker Danny Trevathan will likely get to the open market, according to Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com
  • Chiefs general manager John Dorsey seemed "encouraged" about re-signing safety Eric Berry, per Conor Orr of NFL.com
  • Rams general manager Les Snead called re-signing Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins his top priorities, according to Dani Klupenger of Fox Sports Midwest
  • Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin said Cincinnati is interested in re-signing veteran cornerback Adam Jones, per Geoff Hobson of the Bengals' official site
  • Redskins head coach Jay Gruden expressed a strong interest in re-signing linebacker Junior Galette, according to Keim

Alshon Jeffery Staying in Chicago

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The Chicago Bears have no interest in letting Jeffery—arguably the top offensive player scheduled to be a free agent—test the open market. 

Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune said Wednesday there's "no way" the Bears will allow Jeffery to reach free agency. ESPN's Adam Schefter had a similar report, stating Chicago is "expected to retain" the Pro Bowl receiver, with the franchise tag being an option if a long-term deal can't be finalized before next Tuesday. 

General manager Ryan Pace said the team is working on Jeffery's new deal, per Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com.

"We're actively and aggressively negotiating right now," Pace said, per Dickerson. "We understand the deadline is Tuesday for the franchise tag. That's an option. We have until Tuesday to make that decision. But right now that's ongoing. But, no, that option [the franchise tag] is still on the table."

Jeffery, 26, is coming off a frustrating season in which he missed seven games to injury. However, he produced more than 80 catches and 1,000 receiving yards during healthy years in 2013 and 2014. 

The Bears can't afford to lose him, especially with Matt Forte leaving Chicago a year after Brandon Marshall was traded to New York. Once Chicago takes Jeffery off the market, the class of free-agent receivers will look dangerously thin, especially at the top. 

49ers Keeping Colin Kaepernick?

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San Francisco general manager Trent Baalke said he will keep quarterback Colin Kaepernick on the roster through April 1, according to ESPN.com.

The date is an important one, as Kaepernick's nearly $12 million in base salary becomes fully guaranteed on the first day of April. There was speculation the 49ers could cut ties or trade the quarterback before his salary locked in, but it appears Baalke is more comfortable keeping him around until the team can gather more information on his health.

"The main focus right now is health, getting him healthy," Baalke said. "He's done a good job with his rehab. Talking to the medical staff, that seems to be going very well, and [we] just look forward to getting him back and getting him working with this coaching staff."

New head coach Chip Kelly said Kaepernick wants to return.

“He wants to be here,” Kelly said, per Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area. “He’s never expressed to me that he doesn’t want to be here. He expressed to me that he was excited about getting healthy and getting going. And we’re excited about him getting healthy and getting going.”

Kaepernick, 28, threw six touchdowns and five interceptions before being benched for Blaine Gabbert last season. He landed on injured reserve in November and later needed surgery for knee, shoulder and thumb ailments. 

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Or Trading Colin Kaepernick?

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Maybe the idea of Kaepernick staying in San Francisco isn't so set in stone. 

According to Rand Getlin of NFL Network, Kaepernick has asked the 49ers for permission to seek a trade—providing the latest twist in a conflict brewing since last year. 

A number of trade partners make sense, mostly in the AFC. The Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, New York Jets and Denver Broncos are potential options. Then again, the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams would also work if the 49ers are comfortable trading Kaepernick inside their own conference. 

The 49ers dealing Kaepernick could be the domino that transforms the free-agent market for quarterbacks. 

Buccaneers 'Optimistic' About Re-Signing Doug Martin

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Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht wants running back Doug Martin to return to Tampa Bay, stating he is "optimistic" the two sides can agree to a new deal, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com.

"We have a couple things going for us there," Licht said, per McClure. "We like Doug, and Doug likes us. So, we're going to do everything we can to make sure Doug is with us."

McClure later reported the Bucs and Martin's representatives have begun contract negotiations, although major talks aren't expected until after the NFL Scouting Combine. 

In a contract year, Martin rushed for 1,402 yards—ranking second behind Adrian Peterson for the NFL lead. He would enter free agency as one of the most coveted offensive players on the open market, although his value is probably highest in Tampa Bay.

If the Bucs re-sign Martin, then Lamar Miller would become the unquestioned top running back in free agency.

Eagles Believe Sam Bradford Wants to Return

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New Eagles head coach Doug Pederson believes free-agent quarterback Sam Bradford wants to return to Philadelphia. 

“Sam is part of the Eagles' organization,” Pederson said, per Phil Sheridan of ESPN.com. “I think he wants to stay in Philadelphia.”

The feeling appears to be mutual for the Eagles, but the numbers have to be right. While Philadelphia doesn't want to lose a starting quarterback—the rarest of assets in the NFL—Bradford probably wouldn't mind hitting the market and letting supply and demand drive up his price. 

The 28-year-old quarterback threw 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions over 14 games last season, his first in Philadelphia. If Bradford hits free agency, the Eagles could become players for a new quarterback on the open market. Chase Daniel or Robert Griffin III could be potential targets. 

Malik Jackson Wants to Get Paid

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Defensive lineman Malik Jackson figures to be one of the biggest winners of free agency. An ascending 26-year-old defender with disruptive ability up front, Jackson will be coveted by a number of teams on the open market. 

The four-year pro can essentially set his price. According to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune, Jackson is believed to want a deal worth $12 million per year. 

He might not have to work hard to get it. Teams are flush with cap space, and Jackson—a young player with both prior production and huge potential for more—is exactly the kind of free agent that franchises will pay handsomely for. 

In fact, once the Broncos take Von Miller off the market (see next slide), Jackson might become the biggest prize of free agency. His big payday is coming. 

Megadeal Coming for Von Miller

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The Broncos are attempting to get a blockbuster deal done with Super Bowl MVP Von Miller. 

"We're discussing with Von," general manager John Elway said, per Kevin Petra of NFL.com. "We've exchanged some offers. We'll continue to meet with his representatives. We feel good about it. Obviously with the career he's had already and the way that he played this year, we're very hopeful to get something done."

The expectation has long been that the Broncos would need to use the franchise tag on Miller, who is likely to become the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL. But if Elway can get the huge contract done before Tuesday's tag deadline, it would open up the option of using it on another player. 

Both quarterback Brock Osweiler and defensive lineman Malik Jackson could be options, although Jackson makes more sense given the money involved. 

The Broncos have incentive to get a deal done sooner rather than later. Miller has always possessed massive amounts of leverage. The next few days could produce the biggest contract of the offseason. 

Arian Foster Safe in Houston?

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The assumption that the Houston Texans would cut running back Arian Foster because of his cap hit in 2016 might be off the mark. 

In fact, Texans general manager Rick Smith said salary has nothing to do with his future with the team. 

"As it relates to all the free-agent conversations, I'm never really going to tell you one way or the other what we are doing, but I will tell you this: his salary is not a reason why we would cut Arian," Smith said, per Kevin Patra of NFL.com.

If the Texans do cut Foster, it would likely come down to health. He has missed 25 games over the last three seasons, including 12 last season. In August, Foster will turn 30a scary age for running backs, which isn't likely to help his durability issues. 

With money not being an issue, Smith wants to see if his veteran running back has any juice left after a major Achilles injury. If not, the Texans will move on—and Foster will likely be left with finding a new home late in the offseason. 

Ravens Pursuing Kelechi Osemele at LT

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The Baltimore Ravens have offered Kelechi Osemele a chance to return as their starting left tackle. 

“It’s a really aggressive deal,” head coach John Harbaugh said, per Ryan Mink of the team's official site. “I think it shows a lot of respect to K.O [Osemele]. It shows him that we really want him here, and I hope that he takes it.”

Osemele would be the top interior lineman in free agency and arguably the top offensive lineman overall if he hits the open market. His experience at left tackle—where he played well for a handful of games last season—gives him incredible value. 

If the Ravens re-sign Osemele before the start of free agency, the market would lose one of the best young players (he's 26) while also likely adding Eugene Monroe. Baltimore would have no need for Monroe—who has struggled with injuries—if it re-signs Osemele. 

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