The Case for and Against Tennessee to Make National Title Run in 2016

To make a run at a national title, each element has to fall perfectly into place. But the puzzle pieces must be present in order for them to fit together in the first place.

For more than a decade, Tennessee hasn't had those pieces. From the recruiting stagnation and lack of player development that characterized Phillip Fulmer's final years to the one-year Lane Kiffin debacle to the failed tenure of Derek Dooley, the Vols took themselves out of contention with blunder after administrative blunder.

Coach Butch Jones appears on the brink of changing all that.

Entering Year 4 for Jones on Rocky Top, the Vols should have all the talent in place for a legitimate title quest. After a nine-win season where they lost four games by 17 points and blew three fourth-quarter leads, it's evident they're close.

Pundits around the nation are buying in. 

According to Odds Shark, the Vols are the joint-fourth favorites to win the national championship next season.

Can they skip the next step of just competing for conference titles in '16 and win the whole shebang? It would be a monumental milestone, but certainly not unprecedented. 

During the frenetic comeback victory over Georgia last year at Neyland Stadium and in a loss at eventual national champion Alabama the next game out, there appeared to be a fundamental shift in the psyche of UT's players.

Players began to make plays, game plans began to work a little better and wins piled up. Was that because the schedule loosened up or because the Vols improved that much?

They certainly believe it's the latter.

"This team can do anything it wants," departing left tackle Kyler Kerbyson told the Knoxville News-Sentinel's Dustin Dopirak. "They can be back in Tampa again. The national championship is in Tampa and I believe in them 100 percent that they can do it. In my eyes, I don't see them losing in 2016. We're 1-0 already."

But can the Vols win it all? Here are the reasons why they can, as well as the stumbling blocks—both on the field and off, internally and externally—that could stand in their way.

Why they will

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One simple word trumps everything else here: talent.

Few teams in the nation have as much of it as the Vols, and when you toss in how much experience they've got, it could be the perfect recipe for the team taking a huge leap forward in '16.

According to Phil Steele, the Vols are tied for fifth nationally with 17 returning starters, just one off the lead held by four schools. They're loaded with talent, depth and game-changing playmakers at important positions.

UT possesses similar offensive qualities as the two teams that played for this past year's national championship, but the Vols need to put everything together like Clemson and Alabama in order to follow in their footsteps.

The playmaker list is led by senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs. He's a dynamic dual-threat signal-caller that may not be as talented as elite Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson, but he has some of the same skills.

Sure, there were some passing downfalls to Dobbs' game in 2015, but he was also a star who showed the ability to take over games. 

By the time 2016 gets here, he'll have started games in each of the past four years, and that's a luxury few teams nationally will be able to boast. Dobbs may have passing limitations he must fix, but he also elevates his team to greater heights at times.

The best thing for him is he won't have to do it all by himself, either.

Much like the Crimson Tide in '15, the Vols should have a powerful, potentially game-controlling rushing attack.

The junior duo of Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara rivals anybody else in the nation. Those two teamed with Dobbs fueled a Tennessee offense that just rolled up the second-highest rushing total in school history, the most since the national championship season of 1951.

No matter how strong the opposing defenses, the '15 Vols moved the ball.

This year, the offensive line returns four of five starters and much more talent and experience than it had a season ago. There's nothing holding back the Vols running game from being special.

Turn the page to the defense, and there's loads of talent across the board. A huge jolt injected the defense with three major moves this offseason. Outside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Cameron Sutton elected to return for their senior seasons. 

Those two will be playing for defensive coordinator Bob Shoop, whom Jones lured away from Penn State after making the bold move to part ways with John Jancek after a solid three years. Though Jancek wasn't bad, Jones saw the opportunity to upgrade the coaching staff.

Shoop told Chattanooga Times Free Press reporter Patrick Brown he believes the defenders are already in place to be elite.

Finally, for the first time in years, the Vols' schedule is anything but insurmountable. 

It's always going to be tough playing in the SEC, but Tennessee should be the class of the SEC East, and games at Georgia and at home against Florida don't seem as daunting as usual. With all the talent the Gators lost to the NFL, the Vols have a golden opportunity to break the 11-year losing streak.

Defending national champ Alabama is going to be tough (as always), but that may be the only game where UT isn't favored. Rather than play an out-of-conference powerhouse such as Oklahoma or Oregon from previous years, the Vols get Virginia Tech and new head coach Justin Fuente at the Battle at Bristol.

A West draw against talented Texas A&M in College Station isn't the easiest, but given the turmoil that has faced the Aggies during the past year, the Vols have a legit chance to win that one, too.

Why they won't

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So, with all that talent brimming over the sides of the Big Orange bucket and the whirlwind of hype swirling like a mountain breeze around Rocky Top, the Vols are a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff, right?

Don't count your rings before they sparkle.

Asking a team to go from a four-loss campaign to winning it all is a tall task, especially when you take into consideration a few particular gaps and gaffes.

Starting with roster deficiencies, Jones may not be shying away from the hype, but that doesn't mean the Vols' rebuild is completely intact. 

"We need to continue to develop depth," he told Brown after the Outback Bowl. "We need to continue to close this recruiting season out with a class that really helps us in that depth. Not so much in the rankings, but in a recruiting class that adds another brick, another layer to our foundation of who we want to become and what we need."

While UT did meet some of those needs—such as in the receiving corps—some of the impact won't be felt immediately, such as the trio of offensive tackles the Vols signed. They'll need to address depth at that position with players already on the roster.

At defensive tackle, Tennessee signed JUCO transfer Alexis Johnson. But with him currently suspended indefinitely after getting charged with assault, his future is up in the air, after details of his plight emerged (per GoVols247's Wes Rucker).

With Shy Tuttle still not healthy following his season-ending injury suffered against Georgia, the Vols have serious depth questions on the defensive interior. 

The holes on the offensive and defensive fronts must be addressed, and some pass-catchers absolutely must emerge if the Vols are going to be serious championship-level threats. You can't have question marks like those and win big.

Then, there are those concerns that have nothing to do with the ability of Tennessee's players.

No matter how well the Vols played down the stretch in 2015 and washed that early-season bad taste from their palates, the ugly losses happened. In the back of your mind, you still probably replay the nightmarish Oklahoma and Florida debacles.

Those losses to elite opponents can be blamed on coaching. 

It appeared as the 2015 season wore on and the Vols began to learn how to win that the coaches also adjusted to the talent they had on the roster and began tailoring their scheme to fit it. But there's always that underlying question about whether coaches can consistently win the big games—until they do.

Maybe Jones got his hard lessons out of the way last year. If he takes those and gets better, they'll serve him well in the future.

Finally, there's no denying the external distractions that have permeated the program recently. The Title IX lawsuit facing the university that focuses in large part on the football program and myriad misconduct allegations against women has become national news.

All the Tennessee coaches sat down together in front of media on Tuesday to address the perceived culture surrounding athletics at the university in what was a bizarre and unprecedented press conference.

While many of the situations referenced in the lawsuit are old news, the recent, troubling allegations against Johnson and former offensive lineman Mack Crowder, who was arrested in Florida in a child sex sting (according to Dopirak), have put a fresh face on the issues.

Spring practice can't get here soon enough for a team that simply needs to get back on the field and away from the salacious spotlight. The Vols have been on the tips of media members' tongues, such as the Shreveport Times' Roy Lang III, for weeks.

Negative headlines may not have any bearing whatsoever on UT's prowess on the field, and B/R colleague Barrett Sallee doesn't think they will, stating recently, "While the Title IX lawsuit is very serious, it's more of a 40,000-foot story rather than one that will actually impact the players on the field."

But the last thing a team with so much buzz needs is negative attention, and, unfortunately for the Vols, that's pretty much all that has surrounded the football program since the Outback Bowl.

If they can't block out the distractions, all this excitement can turn to disappointment in a hurry.

All quotes and information gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information gathered from 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.

Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee lead writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.