Terence Crawford vs. Hank Lundy: Preview, Prediction for Title Fight
Saturday night at "The Mecca of Boxing," one of the sport's biggest emerging stars returns to action, as WBO super lightweight champion Terence Crawford defends his belt against Hank Lundy at Madison Square Garden.
Crawford is an undefeated, two-division world champion. This will be his second defense of the 140-pound title he captured last April.
Lundy is a hard-nosed, longtime contender getting his first shot at a world title. This is one of the biggest bouts of the year to date.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per BoxRec | Terence Crawford | Hank Lundy |
| Record: | 27-0, 19 KOs | 26-5-1, 13 KOs |
| Height: | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Reach: | 70" | 68" |
| Weight: | 140 pounds | 140 pounds |
| Age: | 28 | 32 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Omaha, Nebraska | Philadelphia |
| Rounds: | 130 | 189 |
Even on paper, all the edges go to Crawford. He's the longer and younger fighter with a higher knockout percentage.
While he's listed as an orthodox fighter, Crawford has shown an uncanny ability to switch up and give opponents a southpaw look.
Lundy is a classic Philadelphia fighter: tough and well-schooled. Crawford hails from Omaha, not normally viewed as a boxing hotbed. But he's been able to put it on the map all by himself.
Main Storylines
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There's no question this fight appears to be a bit of a mismatch. While Lundy is a good fighter, Crawford has so far made a career out of beating good fighters with ease.
Crawford beat two-division world champion Ricky Burns by one-sided decision in March 2014. Three months later, he stopped the incredibly talented Yuriorkis Gamboa in nine rounds.
Last October, Crawford faced Dierry Jean, a solid contender who gave Lamont Peterson a competitive fight. Crawford knocked Jean down three times and stopped him in Round 10.
In between his stoppages of Gamboa and Jean, Crawford beat Raymundo Beltran by a shutout and knocked out Thomas Dulorme in Round 6. Beltran and Dulorme have both defeated Lundy in recent years.
Still, it's a mistake to be entirely dismissive of Lundy in this bout. He's a rugged, savvy veteran who is finally getting a chance at a career-defining fight. I expect to see him make an intelligent, determined fight.
But it will be a major upset if Lundy wins.
Strengths
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Crawford is an exceptionally well-rounded boxer-puncher. He switches from orthodox stance to southpaw in a manner that leaves opponents struggling to keep up.
Crawford has a real, old-school toughness. His technical boxing skill is outstanding, but he clearly relishes digging in and fighting. Above all else, he is a highly intelligent ring general who makes mid-fight adjustments as well as anybody in the sport.
Lundy is a hard-nosed fighter with versatility. He can box well on the outside and can slip into the pocket and put in good work to both the body and head.
Lundy has solid counterpunching ability and can make opponents miss. At the same time, he does well applying pressure and turning a fight ugly when he needs to.
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Weaknesses
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Crawford has shown little that can be called "weakness" in the ring. But he has at times started slowly during fights. Against Gamboa, he was down after the first few rounds. Dulorme fought with him on fairly even terms for the first four rounds of their fight.
Lundy has shown a tendency to get defensively reckless in exchanges. Against both Beltran and John Molina, he really hurt himself by spending too much time camped on the ropes.
Lundy has frankly been inconsistent in some of his biggest fights. He has trouble adjusting when opponents are getting off first against him and is too quick to panic and abandon his game plan.
Terence Crawford Will Win If...
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Crawford can't afford to take Lundy lightly. But there's no question the undefeated champion should win this bout so long as he turns in a typical performance.
The biggest risk for Crawford in this fight is that he gets hurt early. In the first few rounds, he should show some caution, using his reach and lateral movement to keep Lundy on the outside. He also might want to work out of a southpaw stance to give him a better view of Lundy's overhand right.
Crawford has a tremendous ability to get a read on his opponents. After a few rounds studying Lundy, he should have his timing down.
At that point, Crawford can really go to work. He'll start to get off first with his own offense, driving Lundy backward and against the ropes.
Crawford wants to make Lundy uncomfortable and frustrated from the middle rounds on. If he can do this, he'll find plenty of space to land big punches on Lundy as they exchange.
Hank Lundy Will Win If...
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Last week, Lundy told FightHype.com's YouTube channel he was looking for an early stoppage against Crawford. While there was a lot of bravado in those statements, it might be a smart strategy for Lundy to take.
The only time Crawford has ever looked the least bit vulnerable in his fights has been in the early going. Lundy should attempt to apply pressure early, walking Crawford down in back of a busy jab while setting up the big overhand right.
Lundy isn't necessarily likely to score an early knockout. But by starting aggressively, he at least gives himself a good shot to build an early lead. If he can hurt Crawford early and gain his respect, he'll alter the entire complexion of the fight.
Above all else, Lundy needs to avoid camping on the ropes. Crawford has a great sense of distance. If Lundy places himself on the ropes, Crawford will have no trouble lighting him up.
Prediction
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I don't see this as an easy fight for Crawford. Lundy just isn't the kind of opponent who is going to make anything easy for anybody.
But it will ultimately be a fairly one-sided fight. Lundy will win a few rounds in the first half of the fight, but Crawford will adjust and deliver significant punishment to Lundy in the late rounds. I predict Lundy will finish the fight standing but will lose by scores of about 116-112 or 117-111.
Crawford will continue to develop into one of the biggest stars in the sport over the rest of this year and in 2017. Ukrainian Viktor Postol, the WBC champion at 140 pounds, would represent a genuine challenge for him.
Ultimately, though, Crawford's future is surely at full welterweight. Although Crawford is promoted by Top Rank, it will be a real shame if he can't get bouts in the coming years with Al Haymon-managed fighters like Errol Spence Jr., Danny Garcia and Keith Thurman.
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