2016 NFL Draft: Matching Quarterbacks to Their Best-Fit Teams
There's no shortage of NFL mock drafts this time of year. So rather than break down the first round again, let's take a look at the 2016 NFL draft from a different angle.
Here's a quarterbacks-only mock draft, which looks at 12 draftable quarterbacks and matches them up with a team and potential round in which they could be selected.
Obviously, matching up players and teams in the first round is hard enough, let alone attempting to do the same in the late rounds. So go into this mock draft exercise understanding that most, if not all, of these predictions won't come true.
But while the draft may not play out as scripted here, looking at a mock draft from different angles allows us to analyze various scenarios and think about how certain teams' needs match up with the available pool of prospects.
So here's a look at a quarterbacks-only mock draft, with prospects ordered by round in which they'll be selected.
1st Round: Jared Goff, California
1 of 12
Team: San Francisco 49ers
There are certainly questions about Jared Goff's ability to take his modest physical tools and excel at the NFL level. However, his display of accuracy and typically strong decision-making skills in the pocket bode well for him to succeed as a mid-level starter in the NFL.
That's not the glowing endorsement fans want to hear about potential top-10 selections, but the importance of the position dictates that teams roll the dice on these types of quarterbacks—especially given the limited financial risk involved due to the rookie wage scale.
You don't need elite physical talent to excel at quarterback under head coach Chip Kelly (just ask Nick Foles).
If Goff impresses Kelly and the 49ers staff during the interview process, there's a good chance he'll be high on their list of first-round targets.
1st Round: Carson Wentz, North Dakota State
2 of 12
Team: Los Angeles Rams
Given his inexperience (he attempted just 612 passes at North Dakota State), drafting Carson Wentz in the first round feels like a Hail Mary.
But maybe that's exactly what the Rams want as they move to Los Angeles.
Wentz has elite physical tools and certainly looked like an NFL quarterback on the practice field during Senior Bowl week. But can those tools translate to the NFL quickly enough to make him a worthy first-round selection?
The Rams' move is an interesting wild card in this process and probably puts them among the teams most likely to gamble on Wentz.
Moving to Los Angeles will generate some hype, but bringing in a new face of the franchise at quarterback—rather than Foles—will take the excitement to another level.
2nd Round: Paxton Lynch, Memphis
3 of 12
Team: Cleveland Browns
The Browns might be the most quarterback-needy team in the league, but their new analytics-based approach could lead them to a more patient draft-day strategy than in recent years.
An important factor in this decision could be the fact that the Browns own the 32nd overall pick.
With the first pick of the second round, the Browns are in a good position to move up late in the first round if someone they like falls or simply stay put and take their pick of the remaining quarterbacks to kick off Day 2 of the draft.
Paxton Lynch is among a handful of quarterbacks in the second tier who could interest the Browns.
Lynch is a developmental prospect and would likely sit for at least a portion of the 2016 season behind Josh McCown, who remains under contract through the 2017 season.
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2nd Round: Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
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Team: Houston Texans
As you've probably heard, Texans head coach Bill O'Brien coached Christian Hackenberg at Penn State.
This fact has led to speculation that Hackenberg would eventually land in Houston since O'Brien bolted for the NFL following Hackenberg's freshman season.
It may sound like a lazy assumption to match up two guys who only spent one year together, but we don't have to go back far to find another similar example. In 2012, the Miami Dolphins selected Ryan Tannehill in the first round shortly after hiring Tannehill's college coach, Mike Sherman, as their offensive coordinator.
Historically, O'Brien has worked with traditional pocket passers (Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage, to name a few), and Hackenberg fits that mold perfectly.
3rd Round: Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
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Team: Dallas Cowboys
It's time for the Cowboys to start thinking about life after Tony Romo.
Historically, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has favored mobile quarterbacks in the draft. His interest in Johnny Manziel has been well-documented (Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News called it a "fascination"), and the majority of his draft picks, such as Quincy Carter and Stephen McGee, have fit mold as well.
Dak Prescott is a work in progress as a quarterback, but he has the developmental tools and the mobility that could intrigue the Cowboys in the third or fourth round.
Prescott is not nearly as explosive an athlete as Manziel, but he's mobile enough to be a legitimate threat running the ball. In terms of current NFL quarterbacks, his style of play could best be described as a smaller version of Cam Newton.
In the third round, Prescott would be a low-risk developmental prospect for Dallas to groom behind Romo.
3rd Round: Connor Cook, Michigan State
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Team: Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler is under contract through the 2020 season, but his contract is structured in such a way that the Bears will almost certainly part ways with him at the conclusion of 2016.
According to Spotrac, after the 2016 season, the Bears will only owe Cutler a total of $2 million in guaranteed money and can save $14 million in cap space for 2017 by cutting him.
With only one year likely remaining in the Cutler era, it's time to think about finding his replacement.
Connor Cook is one of the most polarizing prospects in this draft class, but he has enough supporters that it appears likely he'll land somewhere within the first two days of the draft.
NFL.com's Mike Mayock recently ranked Cook at No. 4 on his list of quarterback prospects.
In Chicago, Cook would have a year to sit and learn behind Cutler before being given an opportunity to compete for the starting job in 2017.
4th Round: Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech
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Team: Philadelphia Eagles
With a new regime in Philadelphia, the Eagles will almost certainly move in a new direction at quarterback.
After a disappointing career at Florida, Jeff Driskel escaped Will Muschamp's inept offense and flourished at Louisiana Tech.
His success and current draft projection likely comes as a shock to Florida fans, but he has been among the fastest-rising prospects over the past year.
According to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net (via PhiladelphiaEagles.com), "a number of franchises" have given Driskel a second-round grade.
That sounds a bit optimistic, especially given the number of other quarterbacks who should fall in that range, but a spot in the third or fourth round is certainly plausible.
4th Round: Cardale Jones, Ohio State
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Team: Detroit Lions
Cardale Jones' eventual landing spot is sure to be a topic of much debate during the second and third day of the draft.
At the end of the 2014 season, Jones showed flashes of superstar skills while leading Ohio State to the College Football Playoff National Championship. But after losing his primary deep threat, Devin Smith, to the NFL draft, Jones took a significant step backward in 2015.
It's unreasonable to expect Jones to be ready to play in 2016, but his long-term upside is fascinating. Many teams with a stable quarterback situation will likely have interest in bringing him aboard as a developmental prospect on Day 3.
The Detroit Lions have Matthew Stafford under contract for two more years, which would give them time to attempt to groom Jones before needing to make a decision about another commitment to Stafford.
5th Round: Kevin Hogan, Stanford
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Team: San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers has remained remarkably healthy throughout his career, but he's 34 years old. Even if the Chargers aren't panicking about their future at quarterback, it's time to at least take a chance on a developmental prospect.
The Chargers don't have a viable backup under contract for 2016 (Kellen Clemens is a free agent), making this a good opportunity to bring in a quarterback to groom behind Rivers.
Kevin Hogan has mechanical flaws that need to be worked out, but he made remarkable strides in other areas of his game during the 2015 season.
After a strong senior year, Hogan's career is trending in a positive direction, and he is worth a low-risk investment from a team with a stable quarterback situation.
6th Round: Nate Sudfeld, Indiana
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Team: Indianapolis Colts
Obviously, the Colts don't plan on being in the market for a franchise quarterback for another decade or so, but Andrew Luck's backup for 2016 and beyond is yet to be determined.
Forty-year-old Matt Hasselbeck is a free agent this offseason, as is journeyman backup Charlie Whitehurst.
Nate Sudfeld put up gaudy numbers in Indiana's spread offense and showed off a strong arm, making him an interesting developmental prospect.
Sudfeld's basic physical tools compare favorably to Luck, making him an ideal backup if he can refine certain aspects of his game, such as his accuracy on intermediate routes.
6th Round: Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State
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Team: Carolina Panthers
Among the quarterbacks in this draft class, Wentz is probably the closest comparison to Cam Newton, but Jacoby Brissett might be a close second.
Backup quarterback Derek Anderson is still under contract, so the Panthers don't need to address the position in the draft. This projection is strictly based off the fact that Brissett could develop into an ideal backup for Newton.
The Panthers have a unique offense with Newton under center, and they would be forced to make changes to their game plan if Anderson took over due to an injury.
By developing Brissett specifically as Newton's backup, the Panthers may have the ideal insurance policy behind their franchise quarterback.
7th Round: Brandon Doughty, Western Arkansas
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Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Spending a seventh-round pick on a quarterback is like throwing darts blindfolded. At other positions, seventh-round picks can provide depth or make an impact on special teams, but most quarterbacks never see the field.
Since 2009, 11 quarterbacks have been drafted in the seventh round, and they've combined to make one NFL start (Greg McElroy with the Jets in 2012).
The Jaguars obviously don't want to spend a high pick on a quarterback, but they do need to add depth at the position. Blake Bortles is their only quarterback currently under contract for 2016.
Brandon Doughty was a productive college quarterback. He displays strong accuracy but lacks the elite physical tools to come off the board much higher than this. CBS Sports' Dane Brugler compared him to Cincinnati Bengals quarterback AJ McCarron.
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