Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Let's party! (and maybe watch a little golf too). Such is the sentiment that pervades TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, one of the more colorful events on the PGA Tour.
And "colorful" is a description that goes well beyond the tournament's self-styling as "the Greenest Show on Earth." Side note: The WMPO is a zero-waste event. All garbage is either composted or recycled. That's pretty cool.
Speaking of compost, the tournament's biggest name, Rickie Fowler, missed the cut at last week's Farmers Insurance Open. Will he be able to bounce back this week?
If not Fowler raising the trophy, then who?
Answers to these questions and more in this week's preview and predictions.
Where to Watch
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Defending champion
Brooks Koepka
Where
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium), 7,266 yards, par 71
What
Total Purse: $6,500,000
Winning Share: $1,170,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday and Friday: 3-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday: 1-3 p.m. ET (GC), 3-6 p.m. (NBC)
Biggest Storylines
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The biggest storyline at the Waste Management Phoenix Open is that it's the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The tournament is one of maybe two on tour (the Masters being the other) where the gallery is a significant element of the week.
Fan behavior is also a story at the Ryder Cup, of course, and the over-the-top carnival element of that event is at play at TPC Scottsdale as well. And of course, the free-for-all that is the 16th hole can make Burning Man look tame at times.
We don't want to say that it's all about getting loaded and acting like an idiot at the WMPO, and surely the PGA Tour and sponsors would like to suggest a more wholesome definition of "fun" is in order. Still, such activities will be a major thread of TV coverage, and even more so in the social media space and online.
Adoptive son and Arizona State alum Phil Mickelson's presence at the Phoenix Open is always a point of interest as well. Look for it to be more so than in the past two years, as Lefty is showing an improvement in form thanks to recent swing changes.
The Favorites
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Bubba Watson: No surprise here. The No. 4 golfer in the world and "greens in regulation" machine is the favorite this week. Watson finished second here in both 2014 and 2015.
Brandt Snedeker: Last week's winner, the scalding-hot Brandt Snedeker has been near-unstoppable since putting a new driver in the bag. Last year's swing changes have jelled, and Snedeker has three top-five finishes at TPC Scottsdale in the last decade.
Brooks Koepka: Koepka hasn't teed it up since he finished tied for third at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Thus, he's had plenty of time to practice with and continue to adjust to his new Nike equipment. Last year's winner (and thus obviously suited to the course), the Floridian is well-rested and practiced and looks darn good on paper.
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Dark Horses
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Phil Mickelson: Phil! The Arizona fan favorite and four-time tournament winner is teeing it up at TPC Scottsdale for the 27th time. A second-round 76 at last week's Farmers Insurance Open gives pause, but Mickelson has been sub-70 in his five other rounds this season.
Zach Johnson: A surprise switcher to PXG equipment to begin the year, Zach Johnson tied for 10th at the WMPO last year. ZJ took the week off after missing the cut at the CareerBuilder Challenge. Assuming he's now a bit more dialed in with the new sticks, the Iowan fits the profile of flusher that often plays well in the desert.
Prediction
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Winner: Hideki Matsuyama
If you scroll through PGA Tour winners' finishes immediately prior to their victories in recent years, you'll see something surprising: Often a player will have finished inside the top 15 in his previous start, but many times the winner will have missed the cut in his last start before a win.
A missed cut is a release of pressure—and a little time off—with a couple of extra days to address swing issues. In some sense, it's better for a player going forward to miss a cut and hit the reset button than it is to eke out a 70th-place finish before rushing off to the next event.
It's also worth noting that Matsuyama lipped out a putt at the Farmers Insurance Open that would have carried him through to the weekend, so he missed only by the narrowest of margins.
Matsuyama finished second at TPC Scottsdale in 2015 and fourth in 2014. He's an adept ball-striker who is particularly good in the 125- to 175-yard range, which will be key this week.
While Watson is the objectively better bet, according to Odds Shark, it's difficult seeing him holding his nerve in a rowdy and potentially hostile environment. Also, repeat wins are statistical improbabilities, as are back-to-back triumphs. Thus, Koepka and Snedeker, whom the oddsmakers favor ahead of Matsuyama, are inferior plays.
All stats via PGA Tour.com.
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