Should Arsenal Be Trusted as Premier League Favourites?
Arsenal, not by their own wishing, have seldom been favourites to win the Premier League over the past decade. Arsene Wenger's club has gone 11 seasons without touching England's greatest domestic prize.
This year could be the conclusion to that barren spell.
Following a 3-3 draw at Liverpool on Matchday 21, the north Londoners' two dropped points finds them level with Leicester City atop the table—they are above the Foxes on the strength of a superior goal difference. Some might have expected Leicester to fade away by this stage, but Claudio Ranieri's men have persevered. Past Boxing Day and New Year's Day, the surprise package of 2015/16 continues.
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Arsenal are expected to challenge. Their current haul of 43 points is customary. No parade will be thrown for them, nor can they stop to smell the proverbial roses. Considering their previous seasons of shortcomings, however, leading at this juncture should provide Arsenal with much-needed motivation, if not inspiration to push forward.
Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea have all fallen short of their respective targets.
The west Londoners, who are the defending English champions, are in dire conditions and in all likelihood will fail to achieve top-four status. Sacking Jose Mourinho and appointing Guus Hiddink as their interim manager, the 2015/16 campaign is a throwaway for the Stamford Bridge residents—opening doors for others.
In Manchester, United have struggled to sustain forward momentum. Manager Louis van Gaal, though spending millions during the last few transfer windows, has not yet perfected a formula for the Red Devils to reclaim their domestic stranglehold.
City have been their usual sporadic, spasmodic selves. From week to week, nobody knows what the Citizens are going to provide the spectating world. It could be a fantastic 4-0 performance with creativity, solidity and goals, or they could lose to a club few expect and leave supporters, and neutrals alike, scratching their heads.
As these three scenarios play out, not taking into account the surprising—yet endearing—rise of Leicester City, Wenger has never enjoyed a better opportunity to secure his fourth Premier League title since 2003/04's Invincibles.
Always in Champions League positions since their last EPL crown, Arsenal's track record suggests admirable consistency, but not necessarily excellence.
It just so happens that overt excellence may not be required this year; what is necessary is scraping together enough points and hoping one's title rivals do not arrive with enough time to inflict damage.
For the better part of four months (getting past Manchester City's blinding start), the Gunners have looked the side least likely to implode. Drawing vs. Liverpool did not help their effort, but Anfield is off their schedule and City's Everton draw meant Wenger's stalemate was not too costly.
If the most consistent teams in the league are Arsenal and Leicester City (an argument could be made for Aston Villa as well), the title can only go in one direction—that being the Emirates Stadium in Holloway, London.
When signs are pointing towards Arsenal as favourites, though, one must ask the question: "Can they be trusted?"
Nothing in recent memory suggests the Gunners are capable of sustaining a legitimate title challenge versus worthy contenders, but if others are floundering, it seems the most consistent club in England (certainly Arsenal) should repeat a "slow and steady wins the race" mantra.
Frequently, Premier League hares have beaten Wenger's tortoise, but this season, Aesop might just have a point.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
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