One and Done: AAA 400

After an exciting start to this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup last week in New Hampshire, the Sprint Cup cars head to Dover this weekend for the AAA 400. Mark Martin heads into the weekend with the points lead, building a 35-point cushion after winning in Loudon.

Dover, like New Hampshire, is a one-mile oval, but the similarities end there. Unlike Loudon, Dover is a banked track, with 24 degrees in the corners and 9 on the straightaways. It is also the only concrete-paved track in the Chase (the only other concrete track in the series is Bristol).

Of all active drivers' career records at Bristol, those with the top seven average finishes are all Chase drivers. However, the other five drivers all have mediocre at best Bristol records, and aren't really good fantasy picks for that reason. Sorry, Kurt Busch, Brian Vickers, Kasey Kahne, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin's record is particularly bad, with no finishes better than 36th in his last four Dover races. Among the drivers who can say they have better Bristol records than Kahne and Montoya: Mike Skinner, Todd Bodine, and Paul Menard. Vickers' one top ten came in 2005. Yikes.

So, out of the remaining Chase drivers, who's a good fantasy bet?

Carl Edwards (avg. fn. 7.6): Look, I don't care how off he's been this year, compared to his normally lofty standards. Dover is an excellent track for Edwards, and if he's going to break through into the win column somewhere, this seems like the place to do it. How do you bet against a guy who's never finished worse than 18th and has led laps in seven straight Dover races? Then again, I feel as if I've said similar things before earlier this year.

Jimmie Johnson (avg. fn. 10.4): It's Jimmie Johnson, it's the Chase, I don't need to say any more. For the sake of filling space, however, I will point out that Johnson has a streak of top-15s at Dover dating back to this race in 2004, and he won the spring race, suggesting another stellar performance this weekend.

Greg Biffle (avg. fn. 10.6): You'd have to go all the way back to the Biff's rookie season of 2003 to find a bad finish at Dover - 30th in the spring of 2003 after a spin. After a mediocre 26th in the spring of 2004, it's been nothing but smooth sailing for the 16 team ever since—culminating with wins in spring 2005 and this race last year. Biffle has also led laps in eight of the last nine Bristol races.

Tony Stewart (avg. fn. 11.7): A lot of us thought that Smoke would have his first points-paying win as an owner-driver at Dover earlier this year, until Johnson found a way around him in the closing laps. Now we know that the 14 team has the prerequisite Swagger (Old Spice and mindset) to contend. If not for an axle issue last weekend at New Hampshire, this team might've been back in the points lead.

Mark Martin (avg. fn. 12.7): Momentum, check. Four career Dover wins, check. Only two finishes worse than 10th since 2004, check. Take him if he's available. There's no reason not to.

Want to play One and Done? Head on over to OnPitRow.com! The third and final segment of this year's game lasts through the end of the Chase.