Clemson vs. Alabama: Key Factors in CFP National Championship 2016
The Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) looked unstoppable in the Cotton Bowl, beating Michigan State in the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff.
The Clemson Tigers (14-0) needed a little bit of time to shake off Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, but once Dabo Swinney's team found its rhythm, they dominated the Sooners.
These two teams are on a collision course to determine College Football's national champion. They will meet Jan. 11 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, at 8:30 p.m. ET in a game that will be televised by ESPN.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The coaching staffs of both teams have quite a bit of work to do as they prepare for the title game by establishing their strengths and limiting their opponent's advantages. Let's look at some of the key factors for both teams.
Alabama's key factors
Establish Derrick Henry
This may seem fairly obvious, but the Crimson Tide went to the air throughout the first half of their victory over Michigan State, and the Heisman Trophy winner seemed to be an afterthought in Nick Saban's game plan.
Alabama clearly respected Michigan State's ability to slow down the running game. The Spartans had done that to Ezekiel Elliott and Ohio State, so the Crimson Tide was not going to use Henry as a battering ram at the start of the game.
Clemson has the nation's 63rd-ranked defense, and Henry ran for 2,061 yards this season with 25 touchdowns. That makes him the best option for the Alabama offense. Jake Coker certainly had a brilliant game throwing the ball against Michigan State, but Henry is the top player on the team and must have a great game.
"Derrick Henry becomes the 19th player in FBS history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. What a year. pic.twitter.com/KW50TlK0jQ
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) January 1, 2016"
Attack downfield with the passing game
Jake Coker has had an excellent year for a quarterback who was not established before the start of the season.
He had a fantastic season, completing 247 of 368 passes for 2,775 yards with a 19-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. While he is not an effective runner, Coker was able to move around in the pocket well enough to buy time for his receivers to get open.
Coker is coming off a scintillating performance in the Cotton Bowl in which he completed 25 of 30 passes for 286 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Matching that performance is not likely, but Coker must stretch the field a couple of times in the first half to help Henry and the running game.
Overpowering defense must strike again
The best part of Alabama's game is its ability to play shutdown defense. When the Crimson Tide came up with a key interception at the end of the first half against Michigan State that prevented the Spartans from putting points on the board, the game was essentially over.
That type of play is not unusual for Alabama. The Crimson Tide have a game-changing defense that is capable of draining the lifeblood from nearly any offense.
Alabama had the best run defense in the nation, allowing 991 rushing yards for the season and holding opponents to 2.30 yards per rush.
The Crimson Tide also have a dominating pass rush—their front four posted 50 sacks this year, a figure that led the nation. That unit is led by Jonathan Allen, who had 12.0 sacks, and Tim Williams with 10.5 sacks. The defense will clearly be tested by Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, as Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples discussed, but Alabama has been up to the task throughout the season.
"Can Alabama’s physical defense erase Deshaun Watson and Clemson’s edge? (by @andy_staples) https://t.co/6nd09R1ca6 pic.twitter.com/BFx7v9WRWu
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 5, 2016"
Clemson's key factors
Watson must be a star
Deshaun Watson did not win the Heisman Trophy for the Clemson Tigers, and when he looks across the field he will see Henry, who was feted as the best player in the nation and was honored by the Downtown Athletic Club.
Watson can lead his team to an even more valuable trophy if he can come up with his best game at the biggest moment. Watson is a special quarterback and a magnificent athlete. He is coming off a brilliant game against the Sooners in which he completed 16 of 31 passes for 187 yards with a touchdown and ran for 145 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.
Watson had a very special season as he threw for 3,699 yards with a 31-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ran for 1,032 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The Alabama defense is clearly formidable, but Watson has the talent and the credentials to challenge, and possibly get the best of the Crimson Tide.
If Clemson is going to win this game, Watson must be at his best.
Offensive line must slow down the pass rush
Watson is a brilliant athlete who is able to run away from opposing defenses.
However, it's one thing to get away from South Carolina or Oklahoma; it's quite another to get away from the Crimson Tide.
Watson may be able to get away from Allen or Williams from time to time, but when Alabama's front four can all rush the quarterback, it doesn't seem likely that he can get away from all of them.
That means Clemson's offensive line must have the game of its life. They have to keep the Alabama defense from swarming the quarterback if he is going to make game-changing plays.
Most football games are decided in the trenches, and the performance of the Clemson offensive line agaisnt the Alabama defensive front will be vital to the outcome of this game.
Can Lawson dominate despite knee issue?
Clemson defensive end Shaq Lawson is a dominating player who led the nation with 23.5 tackles for loss.
However, Lawson sprained his knee in the first quarter of the semifinal win over Oklahoma, and he did not play the rest of the way against the Sooners. Associated Press reporter Ralph D. Russo says that Lawson should be on the field in the national championship game:
"Swinney on All-America DE Shaq Lawson, who missed most of Orange Bowl (knee). "So far so good. Very optimistic that he'll be able to play.'
— Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoAP) January 4, 2016"
However, Lawson is a great player who has looked unstoppable at times. Will he be able to rev it up enough that he can make two or three huge plays in this game?
If the answer is yes, Clemson should have an excellent chance to compete for 60 minutes—and possibly win this game. But if Lawson is not healthy enough to keep the injury from impacting his first step or his closing speed, the Tigers will be in trouble.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
