Cactus Bowl Betting: West Virginia vs. Arizona State Odds, Analysis and Pick

Arizona State is just 2-4 straight up in its last six bowl games and 1-5 against the spread; West Virginia is only 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five bowls. Two teams searching for some postseason success clash when the Sun Devils meet the Mountaineers in the Cactus Bowl on Jan. 2.

Cactus Bowl point spread: The Sun Devils opened as 1.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.1-31.5 Mountaineers

Why the Mountaineers can cover the spread

West Virginia started 3-0 this season, putting up 44, 41 and 45 points. The Mountaineers then went up against the Big Four of the Big 12 and lost four straight. However, a 44-24 defeat against Oklahoma was closer than that score might indicate, and a loss to Oklahoma State came in overtime.

West Virginia then pulled a 180 and won four in a row, covering three of four spreads. But the Mountaineers finished on a down note, falling at Kansas State 24-23 on a 97-yard kickoff return for a Wildcats score in the fourth quarter.

West Virginia outgained and outrushed the Wildcats, something it's done to four of its last five opponents.

On the season, the Mountaineers are averaging 228 yards per game through the air and 235 on the ground, while the West Virginia defense has held six of its 12 opponents to 20 points or fewer. They went 5-1 ATS in those six games.

Why the Sun Devils can cover the spread

ASU opened this season 2-2, with losses to Texas A&M and USC. The Sun Devils then beat UCLA and Colorado back to back but lost three straight, including a tough game at Utah and an overtime decision against Oregon. Arizona State then knocked off two other bowl-bound teams in Washington and rival Arizona, but it ended the regular season by losing to Cal on the final play of the game 48-46.

The Sun Devils trailed the Bears 24-3 midway through the second quarter, rallied and led by a point with two minutes to go, only to allow Cal a late drive to set up the game-winning field goal with no time on the clock.

Arizona State piled up 586 yards of offense on the Bears, including 191 on the ground, won time of possession by a lopsided 38-22 margin and held on for the cover as a three-point road dog.

The Sun Devils have now outrushed eight of their last nine opponents, six of those by at least 100 yards. And that's usually a good way to win games and cover spreads in college football.

Smart pick

West Virginia is more balanced on offense than Arizona State and owns the better defense. The Mountaineers also finished better than the Sun Devils, with four wins over their last five games. Despite any home-state advantage ASU might hold here, the smart money likes West Virginia.

Betting trends

• West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last five games in January.
• Arizona State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games.
• The total has gone over in 11 of West Virginia's last 15 bowl games.
• The total has gone over in eight of the last 11 Cactus Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.