NFL Playoff Picture Breakdown and Analysis for Week 16

After a crazy Week 15 filled with exciting games, there are just two more weeks remaining in the NFL's 2015 regular season. The schedule is winding down and the matchups left on the docket will directly affect the playoff picture. In the following slides, we'll analyze the current playoff landscape.

There are several divisions yet to be decided, making Week 16 the most important set of contests to date. The stakes are high even for sub.-500 teams that are chasing a playoff spot. The coming chaos will be exhilarating to watch unfold.

Will your favorite team be able to wrap up their playoff seed this week, or are they in danger of elimination? We’ve got you covered either way. Leave your predictions in the comments section.

Current AFC Playoff Seeding

AFC No. 1 Seed: New England Patriots (12-2)

The Patriots absolutely destroyed the Tennessee Titans in Week 15. With New England creating momentum as the playoffs near, this team is edging closer to clinching home-field advantage. All that remains are two familiar divisional foes.

It won’t be easy to beat the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins on the road. Both are inferior based on their records, but beating New England is a big deal for both franchises. Expect a couple of good contests as the season closes out for the Patriots.

Remaining Schedule: at Jets (9-5), at Dolphins (5-9)

AFC No. 2 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (11-3)

Things are setting up nicely for the Cincinnati Bengals as far as clinching a needed first-round bye goes. At 11-3, the Bengals are one game ahead of the Denver Broncos for the second seed. Their upcoming Week 16 matchup may ultimately be the linchpin for a lengthy playoff run.

While the Bengals hope that quarterback Andy Dalton will be able to return in the playoffs, this team must brace for the worst-case scenario. AJ McCarron was able to hold his own against San Francisco, but the difficulty is about to go from rookie to All-Madden. 

Remaining Schedule: at Broncos (10-4), vs. Ravens (4-10)

AFC No. 3 Seed: Denver Broncos (10-4)

Instead of capitalizing on the opportunity to stay two steps ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs, and tied with the Bengals, the Broncos dropped their Week 15 contest. Their 34-27 loss against Pittsburgh was more evidence that this team will not be good enough on offense in the playoffs. A switch at quarterback may be needed if Peyton Manning is healthy.

The defense uncharacteristically allowed 34 points, but the offense bogged down in the second half. If Denver cannot manufacture points in the clutch, its playoff run won’t last nearly as long as it probably should, considering its available talent.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Bengals (11-3), vs. Chargers (4-10)

AFC No. 4 Seed: Houston Texans (7-7)

A clutch win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 has the Texans on a clear path to win the AFC South. At 7-7, Houston has recovered well from a rocky start to get to this point. Head coach Bill O’Brien has his team playing its best football with two weeks to go.

Speaking of those games, Houston will be the favorite in each of its remaining contests. If quarterback Brian Hoyer successfully emerges from the concussion protocol and returns to the lineup, the Texans should be able to win out and secure the divisional title.

Remaining Schedule: at Titans (3-11), vs. Jaguars (5-9)

AFC No. 5 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)

Another week, another victory for Kansas City. The Chiefs are riding a tremendous eight-game winning streak into the final two weeks of the regular season. They are almost assured of the first wild-card spot with nine wins already.

At this point, Kansas City just needs to take care of business. It has two winnable games remaining, and winning even one will all but lock up its playoff spot. 

Remaining Schedule: vs. Browns (3-11), vs. Raiders (6-8)   

AFC No. 6 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)

We have a new sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a better record against common opponents than the Jets. With two games left, Pittsburgh controls its own destiny.

Considering the potency of the Steelers' offensive attack, they might be the scariest team in the AFC. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are enough to carry this team, but we cannot forget the plethora of other options that are scoring threats from anywhere on the field, namely DeAngelo Williams, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton. Two bad teams are the only thing between the Steelers and the AFC's final playoff berth.

Remaining Schedule: at Ravens (4-10), at Browns (3-11) 

Current NFC Playoff Seeding

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

NFC No. 1 Seed: Carolina Panthers (14-0)

The Carolina Panthers were able to defeat the New York Giants in Week 15 after coughing up a 35-7 lead, and they’re now staring history in the face. They face two losing teams to close out the regular season, which presents an opportunity to wrap up home-field advantage throughout the postseason and head into the proceedings undefeated.

Cam Newton and company have been terrific. Newton has blossomed into the clear MVP, and the Panthers coaching staff deserves a ton of credit for quality coaching in every phase of the game.

Remaining Schedule: at Falcons (7-7), vs. Buccaneers (6-8)

NFC No. 2 Seed: Arizona Cardinals (12-2)

The Arizona Cardinals are close to locking up a first-round bye. They have two difficult games left, though. Week 16 features a matchup with their primary foe for the second seed, the Green Bay Packers.

Arizona simply overwhelms most teams it faces. Coupled with a high-powered offense, the Cardinals defense has been a nightmare to extend drives and finish in the red zone against. That’s a tough combination to overcome.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Packers (10-4), vs. Seahawks (9-5)

NFC No. 3 Seed: Green Bay Packers (10-4)

The Packers are a difficult team to get a feel for right now. They pulled out an impressive win against the Oakland Raiders last week, but two difficult tests lie ahead. The NFC North may be up for grabs if the Packers lose to the Cardinals in Week 16.

Green Bay’s home-field advantage would be nice if it has to play the Minnesota Vikings again in the first round of the playoffs. Their potential third matchup would be directly after their Week 17 showdown. Things are about to become very interesting for the Packers.

Remaining Schedule: at Cardinals (12-2), vs. Vikings (9-5)

NFC No. 4 Seed: Washington Redskins (7-7)

The Redskins made a strong statement at home against a reeling Buffalo Bills team. Washington controls its own fate from here on out, with a massive Week 16 showdown looming in Philadelphia. If the Redskins beat the Eagles on the road, the division is theirs.

Head coach Jay Gruden has done a great job of changing the culture in Washington. They have talent and now play more physically as a team. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has also been more reliable and cut down on the turnovers that plagued him earlier in his career.

Remaining Schedule: at Eagles (6-8), at Cowboys (4-10) 

NFC No. 5 Seed: Seattle Seahawks (9-5)

One reason the NFC looks so tough right now is because the Seattle Seahawks have emerged as a serious Super Bowl threat. Their recent run is what most expected from this team entering the season. It just took them a few months to find their groove.

Quarterback Russell Wilson deserves much of the credit for this. He and Doug Baldwin have been phenomenal this year, with each helping the other achieve new heights in their respective careers.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Rams (6-8), at Cardinals (12-2)

NFC No. 6 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (9-5)

The Vikings' dormant passing game may have awoken in Week 15. Their destruction of the Chicago Bears was teeming with terrific quarterback play from Teddy Bridgewater. Don’t look now, but Bridgewater has had some of his best games against teams like Denver, Arizona and a respectable Chicago defense.

If Adrian Peterson can return to the field this week, expect the Vikings to wrap up a wild-card berth in Week 16, particularly now that the New York Giants will be without the services of star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Minnesota is a dangerous team when healthy.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Giants (6-8), at Packers (10-4)

Teams on the Bubble

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

AFC

New York Jets (9-5) 

The Jets escaped from Dallas with a win in Week 15, even if it was ugly. New York’s balanced-but-power-propelled offensive attack helps it grind through games and be effective when it really needs to execute.

The Jets can still make the playoffs, but they need some help. Tiebreakers in favor of both Kansas City and Pittsburgh mean the Jets need to win out—no easy task with a Week 16 matchup against the Patriots looming—and hope one of the other teams stumbles over the next two weeks.  

Remaining Schedule: vs. Patriots (12-2), at Bills (6-8)

Indianapolis Colts (6-8)

The Colts really blew a chance to sneak into the playoffs before getting superstar quarterback Andrew Luck back. Losing to the Texans in Week 15 was backbreaking. Now this team must hope Houston loses one or both of its next two games, and the Colts need to win out to give themselves a chance to win the AFC South.

The positive for the Colts is they’re about to face two very bad teams. Miami and Tennessee are among the worst teams in the NFL, and these games will allow Indianapolis to prove it's better than the lackluster teams already out of contention.

Remaining Schedule: at Dolphins (5-9), vs. Titans (3-11)

NFC  

Atlanta Falcons (7-7)

While Atlanta finally put a stop to its cold streak with a 23-17 victory in Jacksonville on Sunday, the Falcons might be too far back to claw back into the playoff picture. The Vikings and Seahawks would have to lose out while Atlanta wins out to make it. It’s hard to have confidence in the Falcons holding up their end of the bargain.

Nonetheless, Atlanta has been a better team in Dan Quinn’s first season as head coach. This is a roster that needs some work, and quarterback Matt Ryan’s recent struggles must be corrected. There are building blocks in place now, and that is a positive that didn’t exist a year ago.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Panthers (14-0), vs. Saints (5-9)

Philadelphia Eagles (6-8)

The NFC East is going to become very interesting if the Philadelphia Eagles beat Washington in Week 16. While the Eagles continue to be inconsistent, they have the chance to overtake the Redskins for the division lead this week. That won’t be easy, however, as the Redskins have been playing some quality football over the last month.

The lack of a consistent running game and injuries in the secondary have plagued Philadelphia all season long. It’s unlikely this will change with two games remaining, but the Eagles need to be the better team on Saturday night for them to be in a position to clinch in Week 17. All eyes will be watching what happens in the City of Brotherly Love this coming weekend.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Redskins (7-7), at Giants (6-8)

New York Giants (6-8)

While the Giants looked to be on the verge of being blown out against the Panthers, they at least fought back and almost won as time was running out. Another late-game bad decision by Eli Manning led to an interception in the end zone. Late-game blunders have haunted this team all season.

Nevertheless, the Giants have another chance to win the NFC East. They must win out and hope the Eagles win in Week 16. Any other variation will result in elimination from the playoff picture.

Remaining Schedule: at Vikings (9-5), vs. Eagles (6-8)

Teams out of Contention

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Week 15 was not good for teams that were on the edge of the playoff race. We saw seven teams officially eliminated, and more may be coming after this week of games concludes. Unfortunately, Week 17 may be somewhat anticlimactic in terms of playoff implications, but the draft will be influenced heavily.

Below is the list of teams now focusing on playing playoff spoiler. An unexpected upset or two can certainly change the picture as it currently stands.

Teams Eliminated from Playoffs

AFC: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans

NFC: Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AFC Seeding Odds

Don Wright/Associated Press

AFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: New England Patriots

About a month ago, it remained questionable whether the Patriots would be able to clinch the conference's No. 1 seed. Now it is very likely as the Patriots have a one-game advantage over the Bengals for the spot with just two games left. If the Patriots take care of business against the Jets on Sunday, they’ll be able to rest easy in Week 17 with home-field advantage in hand.

Long Shot: Denver Broncos

The Broncos need a lot of help to climb up to the top overall seed. Not only do they need to win out, but they must have the Patriots lose their two remaining games and the Bengals drop their other contest as well. The chances of things falling perfectly for Denver is unlikely, although it sits in a decent position to earn the second seed if it can beat Cincinnati on Monday.

AFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Cincinnati Bengals

Despite losing Pro Bowl quarterback Andy Dalton to a thumb injury in Week 14, the Bengals are in a strong position to earn a bye in the playoffs. They got some needed help when the Broncos lost in Week 15. Now Cincinnati has a one-game lead and controls its fate.

Long Shot: Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Bengals lose out and Pittsburgh runs the table, it would have a slight chance of earning the second seed. The Steelers would need some help from Kansas City and Denver as well, making this a long shot.

AFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Denver Broncos

While the Broncos have dropped two straight games to quality teams, they still could earn a first-round bye. They need help to get there, though, which makes it more likely they finish in the third spot. Denver needs to watch out for the Chiefs as well, who can win the division if the Broncos lose out and Chiefs win out.

Long Shot: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have fought all the way into the fifth seed already; can they slide into the third seed? It’s not out of the question. They have to overcome a one-game deficit and the head-to-head tiebreaker loss to Denver, which means they need help. Kansas City would need to win out and have the Broncos lose their last two.

AFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Houston Texans

Even with Brandon Weeden playing under center, the Houston Texans were able to pull off a gritty win against the Colts in Week 15. That leaves them in control of the AFC South with a one-game lead. Two divisional matchups are next for Houston, so it’s not as if this team doesn’t have a fair chance to earn its way into the playoffs.

Long Shot: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are just 5-9, but they somehow remain in the mix for the division. They must win out and have the Texans lose their remaining two games, including their Week 17 head-to-head matchup. This is unlikely, but it's at least possible in the zany AFC South.

AFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs just continue to win games and solidify their playoff push. They aren’t safe yet, as they must watch out for the New York Jets leaping back into the mix. But if the Chiefs win this week and either the Jets or Steelers lose, Kansas City will punch its ticket to the postseason.

Long Shot: New York Jets

Since the Chiefs hold the advantage in conference games with the Jets, it is very unlikely New York can win the fifth seed. The Jets would have to win out and have both the Chiefs and Steelers end the season with 10 wins.

AFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers aren’t safe yet, but they are in a good position. With Baltimore and Cleveland left on their schedule, they should cruise to 11 wins. They’re safe at that mark. Losing one of those matchups opens up the door for the Jets to backdoor them, though.

Long Shot: New York Jets

New York loses the tiebreaker for record against common opponents to the Steelers, which means they must finish with more wins than rely on any tiebreaker to make the playoffs. Considering the Jets must beat the Patriots in Week 16 before even reaching the final week and getting help from others, they seem to be quite far away from the second wild-card spot.

NFC Seeding Odds

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

NFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: Carolina Panthers

Will the Panthers ever lose? Eventually they will, but it may not be this regular season, or even postseason. As the Panthers aim for 16-0, they’ve all but locked up the top overall seed. One more win will ensure they own home-field advantage through the Super Bowl, should they make it. 

Long Shot: Arizona Cardinals

Only the Cardinals have any semblance of a chance to unseat the Panthers. As good as the Cardinals are, there’s no margin for error, and the Panthers must lose two straight. That’s highly unlikely.

NFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Arizona Cardinals

Similar to the Panthers, the Cardinals will be looking to wrap up their playoff positioning this week. One more win will clinch the second seed and a Round 1 bye. Arizona has been very impressive for most of 2015 and could be the most dangerous team in the NFC playoff picture.

Long Shot: Green Bay Packers

The Packers are the only team that could possibly catch the Cardinals here. It is unlikely, since the Cardinals would have to lose twice in a row to even open the door. Green Bay is much more likely to be the third seed.

NFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Green Bay Packers

The Packers can clinch the NFC North with a win and a Vikings loss this week. But things get hairy if the Packers lose this week, or if the Vikings win. Either way, Week 17 would then feature a showdown between the two rivals with the division on the line. The Packers are guaranteed a playoff spot, though, so the waters aren’t too treacherous.

Long Shot: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are the only team that can rise to the third seed. As mentioned above, they need the Packers to lose this week before getting a head-to-head win in Week 17 for Minnesota to grab the third spot. That’s not too unfeasible, considering Green Bay's Week 16 opponent (Arizona).

NFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Washington Redskins

The wave of momentum the Redskins are riding is pretty impressive. The offense is humming despite the lack of a quality running game, and Kirk Cousins is playing the best football of his life. It certainly has helped having Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon healthy.

Washington must win this week to close out the division swiftly. A loss this week against the Eagles would be devastating for its playoff push.

Long Shot: New York Giants

While the Giants were close to beating the Panthers in Week 15, their playoff odds are on life support. They must win out and hope the Redskins lose their remaining games. Anything less simply won’t be enough.

NFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Seattle Seahawks

The one team I’d want no part of right now is the Seattle Seahawks. They are peaking at the right time, and Russell Wilson is showing that he is an elite quarterback. Couple that with the improved play from Doug Baldwin, and this is a truly scary opponent. Seattle has already clinched its playoff berth.

Long Shot: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings aren’t really a long shot, but they aren’t the favorite. The Seahawks, Packers and even the Falcons have scenarios where they could climb into this spot along with the Vikings. It’s just not likely.

NFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota is now healthy and the passing game looked much better in Week 15. One more win and the team will clinch at least the sixth seed. A favorable matchup against the Giants awaits the Vikings in Week 16.

Long Shot: Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta stayed relevant with a win and ended an ugly skid this past week. Now it must stack two more wins and get a ton of help from others. The Falcons are the greatest long shot to make the playoffs in the NFL.

Week 16 Games with Biggest Playoff Implications

Associated Press

Washington Redskins (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-8)

The NFC East has seen better days, but at least the end of the season may be drama filled. While the Redskins hold all of the cards right now, they must win this week to avoid a messy Week 17. Simply put, if they win, they’re in.

For the Eagles, this is a must-win game because they are one full game behind the Redskins. There are just not enough games left to make up ground. A win vaults them into first place and a position to clinch in Week 17.

My prediction is the Redskins win this big road game Saturday night. Redskins head coach Jay Gruden has been excellent this season, and Kirk Cousins is leading this offense to respectable levels. The Eagles are talented, but their inconsistency is hard to buy into.

Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (12-2)

While the Cardinals and Packers have already clinched their playoff presence, their seeding is still yet to be determined. The Cardinals will lock in the second seed with a win, and the Packers can swing all over the place in the last two weeks. Green Bay’s variance throughout the season seemingly predicted this uncertain ending to the year. 

With a potentially massive Week 17 game against the Vikings looming, the Packers have more on the line to close out the division as quickly as possible. They don’t want to fall from the third to the sixth seed. But the Cardinals are the better team and will have home-field advantage. This could be a tremendous game.

New York Giants (6-8) at Minnesota Vikings (9-5)

These two teams should be treating this matchup as a playoff game. The Giants especially must play with a sense of urgency, as they must win this and their Week 17 game to even have a chance at making the postseason. Of course, depending on what happens in Saturday’s Redskins-Eagles game, the Giants may know their fate well before kickoff.

Even if the Giants lose their motivation to win, the Vikings will secure a wild-card spot with a victory. There are also some NFC North implications that could be in the fold if Green Bay loses. Expect a fun battle between these contrasting teams.

Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) at Denver Broncos (10-4)

A critical battle between the Bengals and Broncos will have a major effect on the AFC playoff picture. While a Bengals win solidifies their first-round bye, a Broncos victory will make Week 17 more meaningful. This is also a potential preview of a terrific playoff matchup.

The funny thing is these two teams could play now and later, but with different quarterbacks. Current starters AJ McCarron and Brock Osweiler could be replaced by Andy Dalton and Peyton Manning, respectively, if each becomes healthy. That would add some more sizzle to the AFC playoff picture.

All stats used are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com. 

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. 

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