NFL Playoff Picture Week 15: Latest AFC, NFC Wild-Card Scenarios and Predictions

With three weeks to go in the NFL regular season, only three teams have locked up some of the 12 playoff spots between the two conferences.

While the New England Patriots in the AFC and the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals in the NFC are the only teams that can rest easy at this point, there are some divisional and wild-card races that could come down to the final snaps of the season.

Let's take a look at the current playoff scenarios, including both wild-card pictures, and some predictions of what's to come over the next few weeks:

Playoff Seed	AFC	NFC
1	New England Patriots 11-2	Carolina Panthers 13-0
2	Cincinnati Bengals 10-3	Arizona Cardinals 11-2
3	Denver Broncos 10-3	Green Bay Packers 9-4
4	Indianapolis Colts 6-7	Washington 6-7
5	Kansas City Chiefs 8-5	Seattle Seahawks 8-5
6	New York Jets 8-5	Minnesota Vikings 8-5
Still in the hunt	Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5	Atlanta Falcons 6-7
Still in the hunt	Oakland Raiders 6-7	Philadelphia Eagles 6-7
Still in the hunt	Buffalo Bills 6-7	New York Giants 6-7
Still in the hunt	Houston Texans 6-7	St. Louis Rams 6-8
Still in the hunt	Jacksonville Jaguars 5-8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-8
Still in the hunt		New Orleans Saints 5-8
Still in the hunt		Chicago Bears 5-8
Still in the hunt		Dallas Cowboys 4-9

Talented Teams Fighting for AFC Wild-Card Spots

Wild-card teams aren't generally thought of as the best teams in a conference, but in reality, it's an unfair label. Six of them have won the Super Bowl, beginning with the Oakland Raiders in 1980 and most recently the Green Bay Packers in 2010.

While the current AFC wild-card teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets, may not be the best teams in the conference, they are certainly better than whichever team will win the AFC South and might be considered superior to the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos at this point.

The Chiefs have reeled off seven consecutive victories after starting the season 1-5, and they have done so with a defense allowing just 10.3 points per game during the streak.

New York has won three in a row to climb into the picture, and both have a two-game lead on the 6-7 Indianapolis Colts, who lead the South. The Jets have won with a strong defense that has allowed just 14.3 points per game the past three weeks and an offense averaging 30.3 points.

Both, and even some teams currently out of the playoffs, are better than the Colts or Houston Texans, but one of those teams will claim the No. 4 seed and host the No. 5. team, which right now is Kansas City. It seems unfair, but division winners are rewarded by the system no matter how bad they are, illustrated by Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star:

There isn't anything the Chiefs and Jets can do about it, but as long as they keep winning, they are in. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers are hot on their tails with the same 8-5 record, yet they are on the outside looking in because of their mark against the AFC.

Taking a look at the next three weeks, per ESPN Stats & Info, it appears the Chiefs have the easiest path to the playoffs:

Kansas City's opponents combine for a 13-26 record. The Jets' opponents stand at 21-18 and the Steelers' at 17-22.

Although none of them face a strikingly tough schedule, the Jets play the Patriots, the Steelers get the Broncos and the Chiefs are the only team to have two remaining games at home.

Despite that fact, and with no analysis offered, ESPN's Stephen A. Smith thinks the Chiefs will be watching the playoffs from home this year:

Kansas City should be able to handle the 4-9 Baltimore Ravens with quarterback Joe Flacco in Week 16, which will continue to give them the upper hand on the other teams even if they win.

The Jets finish with the two toughest games of the trio, and that should allow the Chiefs to stay at No. 5—if they don't catch Denver—and the Steelers to slide in and steal the final playoff spot.

The matchups on Wild Card Weekend would then look like this:

(1) New England—BYE

(2) Cincinnati Bengals—BYE

(3) Denver vs. (6) Pittsburgh 

(4) Indianapolis vs. (5) Kansas City

At that point, everyone starts over at zero, even the wild-card teams, who this year have a pretty good shot at making some noise.

NFC Playoff Picture Should Hold

There's a similar situation in the NFC, with a few top-heavy teams followed by a good, but not great, division leader, an average-at-best division leader and a wild-card team that has as good a shot as any to make the Super Bowl.

It starts with the Panthers and Cardinals, who are clearly the cream of the crop, demonstrated by SI Fantasy:

The Green Bay Packers are playing well and hold an advantage over the Minnesota Vikings in overall, head-to-head and conference record. They also get the Vikings in Week 17 at home, so the NFC North most likely belongs to Green Bay.

Washington, the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles are the Colts and Texans of the NFC. The division is becoming a social media joke, but just like in the AFC, the winner will host a playoff game.

Here's how absurd it's become, per NFL Fantasy Football:

Both wild-card teams are clearly better than whichever team wins the East, and the current No. 6 seed, the Seattle Seahawks, shouldn't be considered far behind Carolina and Arizona.

The two-time defending NFC champions have won four in a row while scoring 35.3 points per game in the process. Their defense, described by some earlier in the season as "too old," has allowed 13 points total the past two weeks and an average of 14 the past four games.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has been playing like an MVP during the streak:

	W-L	Comp %	Yards/G	TD	INT
First 9 games	4-5	65.8	235.3	10	7
Last 4 games	4-0	75.4	292.8	16	0

With the experience of the past two years and Wilson playing like this, the Seahawks can beat anyone in the NFL despite losing their top two running backs in Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls to injury.

Minnesota is a curious case in that the Vikings have a decent record but have failed three big tests the past four weeks. Their one win during that time was against the struggling Atlanta Falcons, but they lost games to the Packers, Seahawks and Cardinals during the stretch.

The Vikings haven't proved they belong in the upper echelon of the league, but with eight wins and winnable games against the Chicago Bears and the Giants in the next two weeks, they should be able to hold onto their two-game wild-card lead.

None of the teams in the hunt have enough in the tank to erase a two-game lead, which means the current playoff picture should hold, setting up these matchups for Wild Card Weekend:

(1) Carolina—BYE

(2) Arizona—BYE

(3) Green Bay vs. (6) Minnesota

(4) Washington vs. (5) Seattle

If the seeds hold up in the first round, the Panthers will have their hands full with the Seahawks in the divisional round. Arizona will clearly be the better team in a matchup against the Packers, but it's never smart to count out a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers.