Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Cincinnati is experiencing some turbulence at the moment, going 3-3 over its last six games and losing its starting quarterback. Still, the Bengals remain the best bet in football this season at 10-2-1 against the spread. In a battle of backup QBs Cincy visits the San Francisco 49ers Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Bengals opened as four-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.0-16.4 Bengals

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals had won two games in a row, beating St. Louis and Cleveland by a combined score of 68-10, but just suffered a 33-20 home divisional loss to Pittsburgh. And if you haven't heard, they also lost quarterback Andy Dalton for the time being to a broken thumb.

Backup AJ McCarron replaced Dalton last week and almost immediately connected with AJ Green for a 66-yard touchdown hookup that pulled Cincinnati to within 13-7 midway through the second quarter. And while he made a poor throw on a pick-six in the third quarter, he got no help from his receiver on that play. By the end of the day, the second-year QB had completed 22 of 32 throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, with two interceptions.

The Bengals may run from a limited playbook with McCarron, but they should still be able to rely on their defense. It ranks 10th in the league overall, ninth against the run and second in scoring, allowing just 18 points per game.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The Niners showed some life after making the change at quarterback a few weeks ago, but they laid an egg last week in a 24-10 loss at Cleveland. San Francisco fell down to the Browns 7-0 and drove into field-goal range, but a sack on a 4th-and-1 ended the threat. The 49ers battled to stay close, only trailing by one score late into the third quarter, but just couldn't sustain anything offensively.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert, in his fifth start of the season, hit on 18 of 28 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. He now owns a 6-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and San Francisco is still 3-2 ATS in games he's started.

The Niners are also 3-3 straight up and 4-2 ATS as home dogs this season.

Smart pick

Cincinnati is outrushing opponents this season by 18 yards per game; near the other end of the scale, San Francisco is getting outrushed by 36 yards per game. And so far this NFL season, teams that outrush their opponents are winning games and covering spreads 72 percent of the time. The smart money here backs the Bengals.

Betting trends

The favored team is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games in this matchup.

The 49ers are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games at home in December.

The Bengals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.