NFL Playoff-Picture Breakdown and Analysis Through Week 14

The NFL playoff picture is a jumbled mess with just three games left on the schedule. We have major changes in the AFC playoff race after the New England Patriots reclaimed the No. 1 AFC seed. On the NFC’s side, there are minor adjustments as teams solidify their places.

Stumbling now can ruin any remaining aspirations a team may have. With parity rampant throughout the NFL, each game will take on heightened importance. There are 21 teams with losing records, yet two are sitting in first place in their respective divisions.  

We’re going to break down and analyze the playoff picture as it currently stands entering Week 15.

Whether your favorite team will make it to the postseason could be determined as late as the final game of the year. This drama is what fans love about the sport.

Do you think your favorite team will earn a playoff berth? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

Current AFC Playoff Seeding

George Bridges/Associated Press

AFC No. 1 Seed: New England Patriots (11-2)

All of a sudden, we’re in the same place we were two weeks ago. The Patriots are back on top of the AFC after their competition dropped games in Week 14. With three games left, New England looks very likely to finish the season as the top overall seed.

New England isn’t the dominant team it was earlier in the season, but the season is breaking the right way for another deep playoff run. Injuries to quarterbacks elsewhere could make the final three weeks less exciting than originally planned.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Titans (3-10), at Jets (8-5), at Dolphins (5-8)

AFC No. 2 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (10-3)

The outlook for the Cincinnati Bengals may have dramatically changed in Week 14. Despite being in a good position to finish with the No. 1 overall seed, the Bengals not only lost to the Steelers, but quarterback Andy Dalton may miss the rest of the regular season with a wrist injury. There’s not much the Bengals will be able to do if Dalton misses actual playoff games.

For now, Cincinnati must worry about clinching a playoff spot. If Dalton can return in the playoffs, this will be a dangerous team. Without Dalton, the Bengals will have no chance at making a deep run.

Remaining Schedule: at 49ers (4-9), at Broncos (10-3), vs. Ravens (4-9)

AFC No. 3 Seed: Denver Broncos (10-3)

Similarly to the Bengals, the Broncos are a team with question marks around their young quarterback. While Brock Osweiler at times has looked solid, his up-and-down play against the Raiders cost the team a much-needed victory. Now the question for Denver is whether it'll try to bring Peyton Manning back into the fold if he’s healthy.

Assuming Manning’s foot heals before the playoffs, he looks like the best option for a playoff push. Osweiler needs to develop, but his upside is much lower than Manning’s this season. This defense and the surrounding parts on offense are ready for a Super Bowl run, but Osweiler is very young; expecting him to lead this team right now may not be fair.

Remaining Schedule: at Steelers (8-5), vs. Bengals (10-3), vs. Chargers (3-10)

AFC No. 4 Seed: Indianapolis Colts (6-7)

All we know about the Indianapolis Colts is that they are not a good football team. Despite this, the AFC South goes through them. Week 15 could change that, as the Colts host the Houston Texans for a pivotal divisional matchup.

The return date of star quarterback Andrew Luck is still unknown, but he gives hope that the Colts can do some damage in the playoffs. The Bengals and Broncos are having issues and the Patriots look vulnerable, so maybe Luck will be enough to push this team deep into the playoffs. With three winnable games left, the Colts can reasonable expect to clinch the division soon.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Texans (6-7), at Dolphins (5-8), vs. Titans (3-10)

AFC No. 5 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)

Andy Reid and his coaching staff deserve a ton of credit for the 2015 season. After losing some close games early on and starting 1-5, the Chiefs didn’t give up. They’ve taken the season week-by-week and clawed their way back into the playoff picture. They are likely to win one of the wild-card berths now, if not climb even higher.

The Chiefs defense has been superb this year. It's allowed just 20 points per game, which is seventh in the NFL. But over the last nine games, Kansas City has given up an average of only 12.3 points a game. This is a Super Bowl-caliber defense.    

Remaining Schedule: at Ravens (4-9), vs. Browns (3-10), vs. Raiders (6-7)    

AFC No. 6 Seed: New York Jets (8-5) 

The New York Jets win gritty games, which is a trait of a playoff team. New York’s physicality and overall mindset pulverize opponents over the course of 60 minutes. Its ability to take advantage of mistakes is why it currently sits in the sixth playoff seed.

With three games left, the Jets control their own destiny. Their only remaining opponent with a winning record is the Patriots.

If 10 wins is the expected minimum for a wild-card berth, then the Jets are in a good place to make it.

Remaining Schedule: at Cowboys (4-9), vs. Patriots (11-2), at Bills (6-7)

Current NFC Playoff Seeding

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

NFC No. 1 Seed: Carolina Panthers (13-0)

Not only did the Carolina Panthers clinch a first-round bye in Week 14, but this is a team playing its best football at the right time of the season. At 13-0, the Panthers seem more likely than not to finish with a perfect regular-season record. That cannot be dismissed or diminished.

Carolina needs to close out the season with two wins to ensure the No. 1 overall seed. With a Cardinals loss during the next three weeks, the Panthers will clinch the top seed as well.

Remaining Schedule: at Giants (6-7), at Falcons (6-7), vs. Buccaneers (6-7)

NFC No. 2 Seed: Arizona Cardinals (11-2)

The Arizona Cardinals continue to impress while they rack up victories. Along with the Panthers, the Cardinals continue to look like one of the best teams in the league on a consistent basis. They clinched a playoff berth this week and can secure a first-week bye in Week 15.

Their last three games are not pushovers. Winning this coming week will make the last two weeks less stressful and allow the team to rest some starters if they want to.

Remaining Schedule: at Eagles (6-7), vs. Packers (9-4), vs. Seahawks (8-5)

NFC No. 3 Seed: Green Bay Packers (9-4)

The Green Bay Packers made a change with their offense prior to Week 14, which worked. By taking the play-calling duties back, head coach Mike McCarthy saw an opportunity to improve, and the results were better last week. Their 28-7 victory against the Cowboys leaves the Packers in a decent position to clinch the division.

Three tough games remain, though. Green Bay will be traveling west for its next two games, then has a pivotal home matchup against the Vikings. This will be a fun end to the regular season.

Remaining Schedule: at Raiders (6-7), at Cardinals (11-2), vs. Vikings (8-5)

NFC No. 4 Seed: Washington Redskins (6-7)

The NFC East is coming down to the last few games with no clear favorite. While Washington is leading, Week 16 actually has the biggest matchup of the season. Regardless of what happens in Week 15, the winner of the Eagles-Redskins next week will have a huge advantage in the division.

Washington’s big road win in Chicago was impressive. The Redskins have struggled to win road games under Jay Gruden, which betrays their young and inconsistent roster. The arrow is pointing upward, though, which is exactly what this franchise was hoping to see.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Bills (6-7), at Eagles (6-7), at Cowboys (4-9) 

NFC No. 5 Seed: Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing as well as anyone over the last few weeks. Not only is the defense performing, but quarterback Russell Wilson has also taken a leap in development. He’s been as good a pocket passer as anyone in the league.

Two cupcakes come to Seattle in the next two weeks, and then the Seahawks should be able to rest in Week 17. One more win will clinch their wild-card berth. They may be able to jump into the third seed if they win out and get some help from Green Bay.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Browns (3-10), vs. Rams (5-8), at Cardinals (11-2)

NFC No. 6 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (8-5)

Minnesota is reeling, but this is a team that can clinch a wild-card berth with a win and some “still alive” teams losing in Week 15. The Vikings' schedule has been very difficult, and they have been dealing with severe injuries, so it’s not surprising that they’ve dropped to 8-5.

Two winnable games in the next two weeks could lead to a division-deciding showdown at Green Bay in Week 17. Even though the Vikings are struggling right now, don’t count them out. This team is loaded with stars on defense, and the offense has just enough to keep them competitive most weeks. 

Remaining Schedule: vs. Bears (5-8), vs. Giants (6-7), at Packers (9-4)

Teams on the Bubble

Gary Landers/Associated Press

AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

Although the Steelers trail in the wild-card race, the are the best team not currently in the playoff picture. They again face a playoff team in Week 15, but Pittsburgh has played well against top competition. This bend-don’t-break defense must come up strong once more against the Broncos.

The Steelers may be too far behind in the division to win the AFC North and are behind several other teams for the wild-card spot. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, which would make them a dangerous playoff threat if they can get there.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Broncos (10-3), at Ravens (4-9), at Browns (3-10) 

Houston Texans (6-7)

The best team in the AFC South over the last month has been the Houston Texans. They aren’t overly dynamic with a plethora of playmakers or sexy quarterback play but are efficient and effective enough. The roster is top-heavy with stars like J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, and now younger players are beginning to help, too.

This week is the big one for Houston. Beating Indianapolis on the road will give them a one-game advantage and two winnable games to finish the season.

Remaining Schedule: at Colts (6-7), at Titans (3-10), vs. Jaguars (5-8)

Buffalo Bills (6-7)

The odds that a 6-7 team will win a playoff berth are getting longer as the losses pile up. The Buffalo Bills are the best of the any 6-7 team, but they’ve been so inconsistent it may not matter. Buffalo must now win out to have a chance at the postseason and need significant help.

Remaining Schedule: at Redskins (6-7), vs. Cowboys (4-9), vs. Jets (8-5) 

NFC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)

If any team is going to steal the final wild-card spot from the Seahawks, it will be the Buccaneers. Yes, the team with a rookie quarterback that finished with the worst record in the NFL last season.

Behind Jameis Winston and a defense that has found life as the season has progressed, the Buccaneers are just one game out of the playoffs.

The next two games are going to be tough, but each is winnable. They finish with the Panthers on the road, but Carolina might rest its starters if it clinches the top seed by then.

When asked whether he'd play his starters in Week 17 if the Panthers make it to 15-0, head coach Ron Rivera said, via Bill Voth of the Black and Blue Review, "Hypothetically speaking, yes—to a point. ... The reason I would is because I was on a team that had done the same thing, and we didn't, and it cost us in my opinion, because I thought we were rusty."

A lot of help is needed, but the Buccaneers have a chance to make it if they play their best football down the stretch.

Remaining Schedule: at Rams (5-8), vs. Bears (5-8), at Panthers (13-0)

Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

It’s amazing that the Eagles are still in the playoff race. Tied for first place in the NFC East with the Redskins and Giants, they're part of the worst division in football right now. Two big divisional games left on the schedule could drastically sway how this season ends.

Philadelphia has to win in Week 16 against Washington for the best chance to win the division. Without that tiebreaker, the Eagles will need significant help from their foes.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Cardinals (11-2), vs. Redskins (6-7), at Giants (6-7)

New York Giants (6-7)

The Giants continue to lose games that make you wonder how this regime will stay employed past 2015. Bad teams find a way to squander wins, a trait which defines this Giants team right now.

Nevertheless, the NFC East hasn’t buried them yet.

Three games against teams that match up well with them await the Giants now. New York needs at least two—if not more—wins to stay in this race. The odds aren’t looking good here.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Panthers (13-0), at Vikings (8-5), vs. Eagles (6-7)

Teams Out of Contention

David Richard/Associated Press

A whopping 21 teams have a losing record with three games left to go. Five teams were officially eliminated from postseason football in Week 14, and more will follow in the next week if the losses keep mounting.

Below, you can see other teams that should start looking toward the 2016 NFL draft instead of the playoffs. It's going to be a long offseason for many of these franchises.

Teams Eliminated from Playoffs

AFC: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans

NFC: Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers

AFC Seeding Odds

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

AFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: New England Patriots

Right back in the driver’s seat after winning in Week 14, the Patriots have the best odds to finish there. With other teams struggling at the quarterback position, New England has Tom Brady playing well. Winning out would ensure the No. 1 seed.

Long Shot: Kansas City Chiefs

At 7-5, the Chiefs are having a better season than we expected two months ago. But they are a long way from capturing any of the top three seeds. Such a jump would take major failure from one or more of the current top three.

AFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Denver Broncos

Whether the Broncos stay in second, move to first or drop to third, they’re in a good position to make a Super Bowl run. This team is stacked with impact players on both sides of the ball. Denver must win in Week 16 against the Bengals if it wants home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, but it helps that the Broncos host that game in Denver.

Long Shot: New York Jets

As well as the Jets have played, they would have to see chaos rain down upon the top three seeds to make it this high up. They're likelier to settle into one of the wild-card spots below.

AFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Cincinnati Bengals

A significant wrist injury to Andy Dalton may have changed the AFC’s landscape. If Dalton can return before the playoffs begin, then at least Cincinnati will stand a chance to advance in the postseason. But losing Dalton for even one playoff game will be a great burden to overcome. We may see Cincinnati slip into the wild-card spot if AJ McCarron doesn’t play better than he did in Week 14.

Long Shot: Pittsburgh Steelers

Currently out of the playoffs, the Steelers are the likeliest team to rise up and surge down the stretch. Their ceiling is the third seed, but that would take a considerable drop-off from one of the current top three. This is unlikely, as are the Steelers’ chances of making the playoffs as anything other than a wild-card team.  

AFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Houston Texans

It may be unlikely, but the Texans are still in the AFC South title hunt. The team trails the first-place Colts by a tiebreaker because it lost to Indianapolis at home this season. With favorable matchups coming, the Texans should prevail.

The division has been dreadful for much of the season, but someone has to win. Houston has a better roster and easier schedule to finish the season.

Long Shot: Indianapolis Colts

Unless Andrew Luck comes strolling through the tunnel from here on out and immediately reverts to his 2014 form, the Colts will continue to look like a bad football team. Their remaining schedule isn’t too scary, but it’s hard to trust this team with a 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Don’t be surprised if the Colts miss the playoffs entirely.

AFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are one of the NFL's hottest teams. Head coach Andy Reid has them playing great team football, with every area of the roster contributing. Kansas City is a solid threat to do damage in the playoffs.

The ball-hawking defense has been lights-out in the last two months. Its athleticism, speed and intangibles on all three levels have routinely confounded opposing quarterbacks.

This is a dangerous matchup for every team across the league.

Long Shot: Buffalo Bills

It’s impossible to rule the Bills out of the playoff picture, but they are holding on by a thread right now. While others are trending upward, the Bills are not. Their execution levels are as sporadic as anyone's in the NFL.

Buffalo could go on a tear to end the season, but that must happen right away for the Bills to make the playoffs. 

AFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: New York Jets

The second-best team in a quality AFC East division, the Jets have what it takes to make the playoffs as a wild card. They rely on a great defense and physical nature, which bodes well as the weather gets colder.

If rookie head coach Todd Bowles can lead this team to the playoffs in his first year, he will deserve some Coach of the Year votes.

Long Shot: Oakland Raiders

This just doesn’t look like the Raiders’ year, but there are many reasons for optimism about this young team. Quarterback Derek Carr and defensive end Khalil Mack have been spectacular this season, as have other young, emerging studs.

With another strong offseason, the Raiders may find themselves in next season's divisional race.

NFC Seeding Odds

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

NFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: Carolina Panthers

At 13-0, the Panthers are two games up on their competition for the top seed. With the way the Panthers run the ball and play defense, they’re difficult to beat. Factor in Cam Newton’s growth, and this is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Long Shot: Any other team

Simply put, given Carolina's two-game lead, every other team is a long shot to challenge the Panthers.

NFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Arizona Cardinals

How impressive are the Cardinals? They have the best offense in the NFL and are as deep in talent at playmaker positions as any team. Carson Palmer has a variety of young weapons and veterans at his disposal. He’s been playing at an MVP level all season.

Arizona’s defense hasn’t skipped a beat after losing Todd Bowles last year, either. The Cardinals are a great example of tremendous coaching and leadership, from the front office all the way down to the players.

Long Shot: Minnesota Vikings

As well as the Vikings have played, this is a simple numbers game. While the Cardinals are playing great football and face an easier second-half schedule, the Vikings face a murderers' row. For the Vikings to earn the second seed, they likely would need 12 wins, which is now impossible.

NFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Green Bay Packers

It's difficult to say that the Packers are an especially good team right now, but they have a favorable schedule and a one-game lead over the Vikings. If they can get into the playoffs, anything can happen. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense just need to stay consistent with their performance from Week 14.

Long Shot: Washington Redskins

At 6-7, the Redskins don’t have much of a shot at the third seed. But see below for what the Redskins can attain.

NFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Washington Redskins

He may not have the best reputation with fans, but head coach Jay Gruden has done a really nice job with a limited roster in Washington. His game plans have been solid, often exploiting the weaknesses of opponents on a weekly basis.

Washington is clearly building its identity, but its core isn’t quite talented enough.

A weak secondary and below-average quarterback mean the Redskins must play their very best to become the divisional winners. Plus, they have to face several upstart teams that match up with them quite well.

Long Shot: New York Giants

The Giants feel like the better team, but they’ve blown too many opportunities to win this division. The Redskins have the tiebreaker over the Giants, which will make this a major uphill climb for New York.

NFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Seattle Seahawks

The last three weeks have shown this team's upside. The Seahawks have all the talent needed to win key games, even if they aren't as deep or playing as well as in years past. We shouldn't disrespect the two-time reigning NFC champions.

When compared to its competitors, this team has the better coach, better quarterback and better defense. The Seahawks should be able to clinch a playoff spot in the next two weeks.

Long Shot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have been a great team to follow this year. The future is certainly bright if they can put together a strong offseason. This defense needs to inject talent across the board before this team can compete for the playoffs, though.  

NFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota is trending downward with injuries but still have a two-game lead in the wild-card race. A first-round matchup with the Packers would be especially interesting after the two teams play in Week 17. They shouldn’t have any issues locking up the sixth seed and could jump back into the fifth spot.

Long Shot: Atlanta Falcons

This team is trending downward as fast as any besides the Cleveland Browns. Six straight losses have completely changed the tone of the Falcons’ season. They'd need a lot of help to get back into the chase.

Week 15 Games with Biggest Playoff Implications

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

While the Denver Broncos try to secure a first-round bye, the Steelers must win to earn a wild-card berth. Pittsburgh may have to win out to fight its way in. This matchup should be excellent, since the Broncos defense will be tested by the tremendous Steelers offense.

A victory for the Broncos will clinch a divisional title, so there’s plenty of reason to fight hard for a victory this week. Plus, Denver can somewhat decide who makes the playoffs as a potential foe. A win puts the Steelers in grave danger of missing the postseason, and avoiding such a good offense would be a positive.  

Arizona Cardinals (11-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

For Philadelphia, Week 16 is actually the most important game of the season. Beating Washington in a head-to-head matchup may determine who wins the division. But winning this week can help offset the tiebreaker taking place in the NFC East.

Arizona is playing to guarantee its first-round bye. The possibility of resting starters the last two weeks of the season should be appealing. As long as this team is healthy, the Cardinals are a major threat to make the Super Bowl.

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7)

The biggest game of the week features the Texans at the Colts. Whichever team wins this divisional game will be in position to lock up the division in the last two weeks. While the Colts have been as inconsistent as any team and coming off a blowout loss, the Texans have played well the last two months.

Losing Brian Hoyer is a tough one for the Texans. He’s been good enough to keep the offense moving the ball and winning the field-position battle. This matchup has high stakes for two uninspiring teams.