NFL Fantasy Football Week 14: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

Week 14 in fantasy football signifies the start of the playoffs in the vast majority of leagues. We are in the win-or-go-home portion of the campaign, which makes close calls with sleepers, injuries and defenses even more important, as every margin counts during this big weekend of fantasy football. 

The erosion at running back continues, with the New Orleans Saints' Mark Ingram going down this past week, leaving investors scrambling for confusing shares of Tim Hightower—who was out of football for three seasons—and C.J. Spiller, who has played just 41 offensive snaps over the past four games, per Football Outsiders' snap index. 

The San Diego Chargers' once-heralded passing attack was on pace for the most yards of all time through eight games but has since lost several receivers to injury.

We explore these troubling scenarios in the sections ahead. Join us in discussing the key undervalued commodities, such as streaming defenses and waiver-wire wonders, as well as the major injuries impacting this specific week's market. 

As always, feel free to post your lineup conundrums and questions for Week 14 in the comments below. 

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 14: Jameis Winston Is a Nice Upside Play

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Late in the season, as rosters erode, it's helpful to identify some widely available players with the potential to provide instant production from the waiver wire.

While these players aren't stars, we're looking for some of the better bargain buys who are available for free in at least 40 percent of ESPN leagues entering Sunday's slate.

Quarterback Values 

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winston has the eighth-best QBR since Week 8 and a 2-to-1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions over this span. Winston has been at his best versus the NFC South, and he nets the generous New Orleans Saints at home Sunday. The Saints allow a ridiculous 19.8 percent more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in ESPN leagues than any other team this season.

Each player has an outcome spectrum each week that includes a floor and ceiling in regard to fantasy production. Winston's floor is admittedly low for a team that prefers to trend toward the run, but the choice matchup and his capable red-zone scoring weapons are inviting upside ingredients for those who have streamed their way into the playoffs in deeper leagues.

Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

If Winston is the ceiling play, Smith is the more stable floor commodity, because we can assume around 30 rushing yards, 200 total yards, one score and low turnover risk. Smith hasn't thrown an interception in 76 days come Sunday against the San Diego Chargers.

As Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes, the Kansas City Royals became champions since Smith's last pick. The Chargers have allowed at least 253 yards to six out of the past seven opponents, which sets up Smith for bankable, if limited, fantasy projection.

Running Back Bargains

Matt Jones, Washington Redskins

Anthony Gulizia of the Washington Times reported Jones out-snapped Alfred Morris 40 to eight in Week 13, suggesting a shift in the depth chart could be underway. At a devastated running back market, Jones at least presents the potential for at least a dozen touches on a team that prefers to trend run-heavy. 

Tim Hightower, New Orleans Saints

There is real risk in deploying Hightower in playoff lineups, but desperate times, as they say. The upside angle includes his potential to consume a valuable share of early-down and goal-line work for the Saints in place of Mark Ingram, as C.J. Spiller hasn't been used between the tackles often this season and has even struggled in pass protection.

Mike Triplett of ESPN.com shared this fantasy-relevant gem earlier this week, noting Hightower "could replace Ingram in base packages as more of a first- and second-down type of runner—perhaps getting some goal-line looks."

The best case is likely for teams to stash Hightower for Week 15 and see if he can thrive in that role this week. However, in leagues of 12 teams or deeper formats with flex spots, there is at least some usage upside for this veteran as a flex, given the potential for him to consume a meaningful portion of the touches.

As for Spiller's prospects, there is real interest in him in PPR formats, given Ingram's rich receiving role (Ingram had 50 receptions this season), but a low floor so far this season in the rushing department offers real risks in standard formats.

Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles

Backfields are like bullpens these days—specialized and often hard to read. The Eagles backfield embodies this concept, with DeMarco Murray proving to be mercurial and Mathews lacking durability. That said, early-down and goal-line duties are potentially up for grabs in Philly, and Mathews has been the team's best rusher this season. There is real risk for just a handful of snaps and touches, but you knew that already.

Waiver Wideouts

Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals

With at least 44 yards in four of his past five games, the floor isn't as low as it might seem for this big-play-dependent asset. The upside sell is the fact the Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed 191 yards to receivers per game this season, third-most in football. 

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

A gifted jump-ball weapon, as evidenced by a beautiful 38-yard score last week, Parker is seeing healthy vertical attention over the past two weeks in an offense that stresses his 50-50 skill set. The New York Giants have allowed the most yards in the NFC to receivers with 191.1 per game. Parker is free in over half of ESPN leagues. 

Javontee Herndon, San Diego Chargers

He is literally owned in 0 percent of ESPN leagues as of press time, so be the first to embark on this wonderful journey with Herndon, as he is one of the last Chargers wideouts standing. Per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Both Stevie Johnson and Dontrelle Inman have been ruled out, while the Kansas City Chiefs have allowed the most yards to receivers (198.1) per game this season. 

Tight End Streamers

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints have ceded the most fantasy points to tight ends this season, allowing more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns to the position already. With a nice target rate in place this season, ASJ is well positioned as a deep-league starter at this shallow position. 

Will Tye, New York Giants

Tye is second only to Odell Beckham Jr. on the Giants in targets since Week 10 with 19 in the past three games. Eli Manning has averaged a team-high 10.5 yards per attempt targeting Tye over the past three weeks, while the Miami Dolphins secondary has proved susceptible to big plays. 

Rob Gronkowski Is One of Several Game-Time Decisions in Week 14

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This late into the season, injuries induce questionable scenarios all over the league. Several fantasy-relevant injury scenarios require further exploration and explanation—something we aim to accomplish in this section. 

Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, New England Patriots

Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports Edelman has been ruled out, although his return to practice Friday offers some hope he could come back during the regular season. Deep-league investors and those in PPR formats might want to stash Edelman in case he makes an early return. 

The real news is Gronkowski's status, as he's essentially a game-time decision after returning to practice with limited participation Thursday and Friday. Gronk's owners will surely want to have Scott Chandler, or even the Giants' Will Tye, in place as an insurance policy, given the late timing of the Pats' prime-time game with the Houston Texans.

One encouraging element, per ESPN.com's Stephania Bell, is that Gronkowski traveled with the team to Houston, which gives him a realistic shot at suiting up.

Amendola, meanwhile, is expected to play, per Reiss' report. The diminutive dynamo has been targeted a team-leading 32 times in the past three games and profiles as a high-floor second wideout weapon in PPR formats.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions 

Megatron is listed as questionable after missing Friday's practice, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press; however, Fridays are often merely walkthroughs, with Kyle Meinke of MLive.com suggesting Johnson is good to go for this tilt against an injury-ravaged Rams defense. 

Steve Johnson and Dontrelle Inman, San Diego Chargers

Both Johnson and Inman have been ruled out for Sunday's tilt with the division rival Kansas City Chiefs, per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune. We have to think this is a serious fade angle for Philip Rivers' prospects, especially as the Chargers were held to just three points at home a few weeks ago by K.C. We do, however, find some deep-league upside in Javontee Herndon.

Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos 

The Denver Post's Nicki Jhabvala reports Hillman will get the start Sunday versus the Oakland Raiders. Anderson is ailing with an ankle injury that leaves him questionable and potentially unable to play after missing practice to end the week. Hillman could see as many as 20 touches in this one.

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert was a full participant in practice and will get the start this week, per Geoff Hobson of the team's website. The guy likes to catch touchdowns, while the Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position this season.

Streaming of Vegas: Let the Desert Help with Identifying Fantasy Defenses

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How can we leverage the point-projection system Vegas and offshore sports books produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us liking favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time last season.

Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept from 2014-15 data: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify a potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST unit for Week 14.

The Philadelphia Eagles' D/ST ranks fifth in fantasy points from interceptions and 12th in points from sacks, while it has also ceded a great deal of yards and points of late to help offset some of its big-play potential.

While the Eagles are just slight favorites over the Buffalo Bills, per Odds Shark, the upside versus a potentially limited passing offense could prove valuable if the blitz proves effective. That's a lot of ifs, but the streaming potential of this turnover-driven team remains interesting against a conservative, big-play-dependent offense in an important homestand.

The Chicago Bears' D/ST has posted at least eight fantasy points in ESPN leagues in three of the past four weeks, thanks in part to producing 11 sacks over the past three games. Washington's Kirk Cousins has 12 touchdowns at home and just two picks, while he has five scores and eight turnovers on the road this year. Cousins' passer rating at home is 111.5, with just a 69.8 rating on the road and a lowly 5.95 yards-per-attempt clip (8.1 at home). This game matches the point total threshold, as well, per Odds Shark. 

The Detroit Lions' D/ST has been stellar for much of the past month, with the defense having allowing just 5.4 yards per play since Week 10, the least in football over that span. As road favorites facing a suspect St. Louis Rams' offense led by Case Keenum, the Lions have both Vegas and matchup trends on their side as a strong streamer. It's also worth mentioning the Lions host the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16 for those who are seeking championship options.