Citrus Bowl Betting: Michigan vs. Florida Odds, Analysis and Pick

The SEC is 5-0 both straight up and against the spread in its last five Citrus Bowl matchups with the Big Ten, including the Missouri Tigers' victory over the Minnesota Golden Gophers last year. This year, the Florida Gators carry the SEC flag into battle against the Michigan Wolverines in the Citrus Bowl on New Year's Day in Orlando, Florida.

Citrus Bowl point spread: Wolverines opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.4-20.8 Wolverines

Why the Wolverines can cover the spread

Michigan nearly made the jump from 5-7 to a divisional title in its first season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh but for a botched punt in the final seconds against the Michigan State Spartans. The Wolverines opened the Harbaugh era with a tough loss at the Utah Utes, then they won five in a row, including back-to-back-to-back shutouts.

Then came that fateful day at the Big House, when Michigan had the rival Spartans beat until its punter dropped a snap; chaos ensued, as did defeat. The Wolverines then won four more in a row and still had a chance to win the Big Ten East, but they lost the season finale to the Ohio State Buckeyes, 42-13.

Michigan only trailed Ohio State 14-10 at halftime but fell victim to possibly the Buckeyes' best half of football this season in the second half.

The Wolverines are averaging 31 points per game, while their defense ranks fourth in the country overall and 10th in scoring, allowing just 17 points per game.

Why the Gators can cover the spread

Florida made the jump from 7-5 to a division title in its first season under new head coach Jim McElwain, taking the SEC East before losing to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC title game, 29-15. The Gators started this season 6-0 with upset victories over the Tennessee Volunteers and Ole Miss Rebels then lost at the LSU Tigers, but they finished their SEC slate with three more wins to earn a spot opposite the Tide in the conference title game.

Florida came up empty against Alabama, but a late touchdown earned a backdoor cover as a 16-point dog. The Gators are now 3-2 ATS this season when getting points. Florida can struggle on offense, but the defense keeps them in games, ranking sixth overall and eighth in scoring and allowing just 16.5 points per game.

Smart pick

These defenses rank among the best in the country and cancel each other out. But Michigan owns the edge on offense, as long as quarterback Jake Rudock can play. Take the Wolverines.

Betting trends

Michigan is 2-5 SU in its last seven games in January.

The total has gone over in 11 of Michigan's last 14 bowl games.

Florida is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six bowl games.

The favorite is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven Citrus Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.