Cotton Bowl Betting: Michigan State vs. Alabama Odds, Analysis and Pick

Michigan State will hit the field as a considerable underdog when it meets Alabama in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Eve, the second of the two College Football Playoff semifinals. But that might be right where the Spartans want to be, considering their amazing record of 9-4 straight up and 11-1-1 against the spread their last 13 times out getting points.

Cotton Bowl point spread: Crimson Tide opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.1-23.0 Crimson Tide

Why the Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State started 8-0 this season, including a win over Oregon and that crazy victory over Michigan at the Big House. But the Spartans blew a late lead and lost at Nebraska 39-38, seemingly crushing their chances at a Big Ten title.

But two weeks later, playing without their starting quarterback, the Spartans upset the Buckeyes in Columbus 17-14. Michigan State then dispatched Penn State in the regular-season finale, and they fashioned a 22-play, 82-yard drive, leaving just a half-minute on the clock, to beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game 16-13.

The Spartans outgained the Hawkeyes 365-268, outrushed them 174-52 and won time of possession by more than 13 minutes, although they could only manage to push the spread as field-goal favorites.

Michigan State is now 5-1-1 ATS over its last seven games. While the Spartans lost their first four bowl games under head coach Mark Dantonio, they've won their last four, each as an underdog. Last year MSU rallied from 20 points down in the fourth quarter against Baylor to stun the Bears 42-41 in the Cotton Bowl.

Why the Crimson Tide can cover the spread

Alabama went off as the favorite to win the SEC this season and did just that, overcoming an early loss to Ole Miss and winning out from there. With help from elsewhere, the Tide passed the Rebels and won the SEC West. They then claimed their second straight SEC championship, beating Florida 29-15 in the conference title game.

Alabama outgained the Gators 437-180, ran the ball for 233 yards and dominated time of possession by a 43-17 margin. Unfortunately for Tide bettors, Alabama gave up one Florida touchdown on an 85-yard punt return and the other on a meaningless 46-yard bomb with five minutes to go, blowing the cover as a 16-point favorite.

The Tide are 4-1 ATS over their last five games and 3-1 ATS this season when favored by 10 points or less. They're also 5-3 both SU and ATS in bowl games under head coach Nick Saban.

Smart pick

Alabama is the early betting favorite but is also 0-2 in its last two bowls, after getting bounced out of the CFP last season by Ohio State. And Michigan State is one dangerous dog, underestimated and gritty. The smart money here sides with the Spartans.

Betting trends

Alabama is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games against the Big Ten.

The total has gone over in eight of Alabama's last nine bowl games.

Michigan is 2-7 SU in its last nine bowl games.

The favorite has covered in six of the last nine Cotton Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes are gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.