Daily Fantasy Football Week 12: Predicting DraftKings Top Performers and Busts
Perhaps NFL players overate as much as the rest of us based on the deflated point totals facing daily fantasy football owners in Week 12. Las Vegas doesn’t predict a single game to score over 48 points combined, the first time we haven’t seen at least one 50-point prediction in quite some time.
Although Week 12 is the first without a bye since late September, the two extra Thursday games on Thanksgiving Day make it feel like one.
Cooler temperatures and nastier conditions start creeping into game-planning as well this time of year, so it’s important for DFS owners to pick the right spots to find winning performances and avoid the busts using the guideline below.
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Top Performers
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints ($7,300)
It was disappointing to watch New Orleans fail to match Washington shot-for-shot in a Week 10, 47-14 blowout resulting in defensive coordinator Rob Ryan’s dismissal. There’s plenty of blame left to pass around for the Saints’ shortcomings, but Brees is exempt from that group.
No quarterback has been more accurate over the past four weeks than Brees, completing 77.5 percent of aimed throws—a Pro Football Focus stat excluding spikes and throwaways. He also leads in points per drop back—0.76—during the same time frame.
Las Vegas expects the Saints’ matchup with the Houston Texans to be the highest-scoring of the week, with New Orleans projecting the highest implied point total for an underdog at 23. Houston boasts a solid 14th-rated defense in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but the Saints D ranks last in that category, opening up the potential for a shootout.
Brees’ Week 12 outlook is solid with a healthy Willie Snead ($4,500), ageless Benjamin Watson ($4,000), blossoming Brandin Cooks ($6,400) and underutilized C.J. Spiller ($3,000) at his disposal.
Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,500)
Bernard still lags behind Jeremy Hill ($4,700) in touches, logging 44 to Hill’s 55 over Cincinnati’s past four games. But Bernard is outpacing Hill in PPR points per opportunity—0.45 to 0.40—a gap which would be larger had Hill not scored twice in Week 11.
Hill is touchdown-dependent facing a St. Louis Rams defense that has surrendered just five rushing TDs to running backs all season—tied for 12th in the league. Plus, the Rams are tied for seventh allowing just 3.8 yards per carry; Hill logged a sluggish 3.4 YPC over the past four weeks.
St. Louis is vulnerable to pass-catching running backs, allowing the seventh-most receptions (6.2) and yards (58.2) per game. Bernard ranks first in targets (22) and yards (207) and is tied for second in receptions (16) among running backs over the last four weeks.
With a superior game script and excellent value—tied for 21st among RBs—Bernard is a stud play for a good offense looking for loopholes against a tough D.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($9,100)
Hopkins and the Texans host the Saints’ 31st-ranked passing defense, which is returning from the bye with a new defensive coordinator—Dennis Allen—and fresh burn marks from Kirk Cousins ($5,400) and the otherwise unimpressive Washington passing offense.
Meanwhile, Hopkins is coming off 118 yards and two touchdowns against Darrelle Revis, the 18th-ranked cornerback in the league.
"5 catches. 118 yards. 2 TD. Escape From Revis Island: Starring @Nukdabomb https://t.co/hDZPWSo078
— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2015"
T.J. Yates ($5,300) filled in at QB last week, the third starting quarterback for the Texans in 2015. Brian Hoyer ($5,000) is scheduled to return from his concussion this week, but honestly it doesn’t matter.
Hopkins outshines mediocre passers and excellent corners—Delvin Breaux grades 12th among CBs—and will deliver on his costly price tag once again this Sunday.
Busts
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders ($6,300)
Carr’s salary remains high—ninth among QBs—despite coming off a zero-touchdown performance against a soft Detroit Lions pass defense. DraftKings believes Carr’s downer Week 11 was just a “slip-up,” which is true, but a second-straight roadie against the unheralded Tennessee Titans is not the spot to pick for his rebound.
Tennessee ranks 20th in points allowed to QBs over the season, but Brees is the only one to top 300 yards passing against the third-ranked unit in passing yards allowed. PFF graded the Titans D 11th overall.
The Titans enjoyed an extended layoff after holding Blake Bortles ($5,900) to just 12.58 points on Thursday in Week 11. Carr’s Class of 2014 draft-mate managed just 242 yards, one touchdown and one interception for his lowest score since Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers (11.92).
While it’s not likely Carr and the Oakland Raiders will be held without a passing touchdown for a second straight game, it is likely there are better options at QB given Oakland’s 22-point, Vegas-implied score.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots ($5,100)
Just in case you haven’t noticed, Blount’s best games come when Tom Brady ($8,000) demoralizes opposing defenses through the air before handing it off in garbage time to kill the clock. This scenario will not be repeated Sunday night against the Denver Broncos’ league-leading pass defense.
Even if Denver’s defense was not so formidable, injuries to New England’s pass catchers and offensive linemen put the Patriots offense on shaky ground. The Broncos rank second in the league in YPC allowed (3.5).
Blount’s prospects could improve slightly if Danny Amendola ($4,700) plays through a knee strain suffered Monday night, but SiriusXM Sports’ David J. Chao, MD tweeted doubts about his effectiveness:
"With mild PCL, @DannyAmendola will be able to run. Question is effectiveness in stopping & changing directions. https://t.co/sszQcomxDB
— David J. Chao, MD (@ProFootballDoc) November 26, 2015"
Blount and the Patriots’ ground game are not good enough to overcome Sunday’s hurdles, especially with so much value at the RB position this week: Bernard, T.J. Yeldon ($4,800), Chris Johnson ($4,600), Javorius Allen ($4,600) and Thomas Rawls ($4,500) are all better plays.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos ($7,400)
The combination of the declining Peyton Manning ($5,900) and the inexperienced Brock Osweiler ($5,300) have dropped the once-elite Thomas to borderline WR2 status. Thomas hasn’t helped matters with five drops of catchable passes this season.
Nagging injuries to Emmanuel Sanders ($6,800) further detract from Thomas’ outlook because Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia can scheme to double-cover him without a viable threat on the other side.
New England defensive backs Patrick Chung (fifth), Devin McCourty (eighth), Logan Ryan (T-11th) and Malcolm Butler (T-17th) are rated as top-20 defensive backs on a Patriots defense ranked fourth in net yards per pass attempt (5.9).
Vegas agrees this one figures to be a defensive chess match, setting the line at just 43.5 total points.
It’s a good week to spend up at wide receiver with so much value among running backs, but Thomas should be excluded. He shares the sixth-highest salary with Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green and Mike Evans, all of whom will outscore DT in Week 12.
Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference. CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Las Vegas odds are provided by OddsShark. Fantasy points allowed rankings based on DraftKings scoring. Week 10 DraftKings stats courtesy of RotoGuru, unless otherwise noted.
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