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Predicting Fantasy Football Playoff Studs and Duds

Jim McCormickNov 26, 2015

The combination of talent, opportunity and matchups help to make up the vital triumvirate for success in fantasy football. In the fantasy playoffs, we seek more points of differentiation as we covet, well, more points for our fantasy teams. The road to imaginary glory often requires some research to reap the rewards. 

With the final month of the season in mind, as fantasy playoffs can range from Week 14 to Week 17 depending on settings, we're here to help focus on the meaningfully positive and perilous player trends and matchup metrics for the fantasy postseason.

We find the favorable, as the Detroit Lions net the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco 49ers to close out the campaign in style, affording Calvin Johnson and Co. some intriguing ceilings to come. Conversely, the Cleveland Browns finish at the Seattle Seahawks and at the Kansas City Chiefs before hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers to finish the campaign.

Matchups certainly don't define the full value of a player's prospects in a given week, but we can find helpful insights and a better understanding of the late-season climate in exploring the best and worst matchups of the final month of football fun. 

Please join us in evaluating the best playoff studs and the avoidable playoff duds for the crucial stretch run of the fantasy football season. As always, please share any matchups you like for the fantasy football playoffs in the comments section below. 

Quarterback Studs for the 2015 Fantasy Football Playoffs

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With soft setups in the fantasy playoffs in mind, we've compiled some of the choice matchups among signal-callers. 

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton only has the lone outlier outing versus Houston we can truly call disconcerting, and the growing sample suggest the Texans defense is emerging. Looking ahead, Dalton hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers' generous secondary in Week 14, followed by a visit to the soft San Francisco 49ers defense. If Dalton's investors can find a stand-in for Week 16's visit to Denver to face the stingy Broncos, a generous Week 17 setup hosting the Baltimore Ravens looms. Even if it's just for those first two weeks of the playoffs, Dalton's strong season could pay off in the playoffs. 

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: Some pundits and touts will fade the Steelers passing offense down the stretch with the Broncos in Week 15 (albeit at home), but playing the inept secondaries of the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns for the final two weeks of the season is emboldening. 

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Newton finishes with familiar and friendly foes in the Atlanta Falcons at home, at the New York Giants, Falcons on the road and home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Week 17. Could Newton finish as the top fantasy quarterback this season? 

For some streaming names to consider, the Chiefs' Alex Smith nets arguably the best overall stretch of inviting matchups with the San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders on the respective schedule starting in Week 14. The Lions' Matthews Stafford, meanwhile, could feast on the New Orleans Saints secondary in Week 15, as they've allowed 25 percent more fantasy points than any other team, while Week 16 has the San Francisco 49ers coming to town. 

Avoidable Arms for the Fantasy Playoffs: Romo and Ryan Face Tough Stretches

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Knowing which assets to avoid can prove just as helpful, if not more so, than targeting the ideal breakout assets in fantasy football. Which arms should you avoid down the stretch? 

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: We know not too many fantasy teams are trusting Winston on a weekly basis, but we also realize his monster Week 11 outing will incite some interest going forward. Winston nets a sweet Week 14 setup to start off the playoffs strong in hosting the generous New Orleans Saints, but he then faces a foreboding finishing stretch at the St. Louis Rams, home versus the Chicago Bears and then finishing at the Carolina Panthers. For those seeking streaming arms, Week 14 looks sweet, but then we can move on. 

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: With the Carolina Panthers' stingy defense ceding the second-fewest points per drive on the season, and with Ryan netting this matchup twice in Week 14 and Week 16, respectively, the idea of Josh Norman shadowing Julio Jones doesn't appear inviting for a quarterback asset that is already entirely dependent on his top target. 

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: To those who stashed and saved Romo for the stretch run, well, we are sorry. Of course, the Cowboys' talented offense might overcome matchups with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively, but these have been largely productive pass rushes and secondaries this season. 

Running Backs Studs for the Fantasy Playoffs

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Which tailbacks can take us to imaginary glory come late December? Some revealing matchup metrics can help us identify the championship crop at the position. 

Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks: Rawls leads all NFL players with at least four starts in yards from scrimmage per game this season, a quality indicator if Marshawn Lynch is still ailing come the stretch run, as the Seahawks face an inviting schedule down the stretch with the Cleveland Browns and reeling St. Louis Rams' front seven on the schedule. 

Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs: West nets the San Diego Chargers in Week 14, a team allowing the most yards per carry this season to backs, and then the Browns in Week 16, the second-most generous team in per-carry allowance. 

T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: As an intriguing and unexpected name on this list, Yeldon should see heavy volume down the stretch as the team's early-down workhorse against four straight soft rush defenses, with the New Orleans Saints in an all-important Week 16 showdown.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins: Still consuming 80 percent of the starting snaps, Miller nets three teams that rank 22nd or worse in defending fantasy backs from Week 14 to Week 16. 

Of the widely available crop of backs, could the Detroit Lions' patchwork backfield produce worthy fantasy upside with arguably the softest finishing stretch in football? The Lions face the Saints, 49ers and Bears to finish the season. 

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Troublesome Tailback Matchups for the Fantasy Playoffs

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We will need to start our studs in the fantasy football playoffs, but with some leagues' trade deadlines still to come, it's helpful to consider the matchup metrics for the money weeks of the campaign. In this section, we focus on tailbacks with troublesome finishing schedules. 

Chris Johnson, Arizona Cardinals: Johnson is third in the league in rushing yards entering Week 12, which in itself is amazing given he was a street free agent as recently as mid-August. The yardage could prove tougher to compile down the stretch, however, as Johnson faces two stingy rush defenses in the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively. 

Chris Ivory, New York Jets: The Jets face a Tennessee Titans' front in Week 14 that has been stingier to backs than their reputation suggests, while the New England Patriots offer matchup and game-flow fears in Week 16, as the Pats could lead and control the clock given recent trends. Ivory remains a worthy starting asset, but his investors might seek upside elsewhere given tempered playoff projections. 

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears: The Bears head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in Week 15 and to Tampa Bay for a meeting with the Bucs in Week 16, and both teams claim emerging rush defenses that are proving avoidable lately. 

Cleveland Browns Backs: This should essentially say Duke Johnson, but we wanted to warn you off of the entire backfield in the early-down department as well, as the Browns face the toughest stretch in the league from Week 15 on, with the Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers all in line to stuff this listless backfield. 

Wideout Wonders for the Fantasy Football Playoffs

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In a receiver-driven marketplace defined by many pass-happy offensive agendas, targeting the top hands for the championship stretch could prove prudent.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: Johnson could go full Megatron for investors given matchups with two bottom-five fantasy defenses versus the pass in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively, as the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers are both inviting upside environments. 

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: If Jeffery can get healthy in time, he could be a league-winning asset given the soft outside corner matchups in every week down the final month, save for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15. 

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings: Much like the NFC North names above, Diggs has a championship-tilting finish thanks to meetings with the Chicago Bears and New York Giants in the fantasy playoffs. The Giants rank 29th in defending fantasy wideouts since Week 6. Diggs' target share continues to prove worthy, while the volume simply needs to jump in the coming weeks. 

Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs net the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders to finish the season. Each of those teams should host a fan raffle to play cornerback down the stretch. Maclin could feast to finish the season. 

For the streaming crowd, the Baltimore Ravens net the Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers down the stretch, offering Kamar Aiken some upside as the team's top target. 

Matchup Issues in the Fantasy Playoffs for Several Receivers

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Once again, we'd still play a guy like Tampa Bay's Mike Evans, who we discuss below, but fading them in daily competitions or considering the trade market if possible could make some sense for these assets with unfavorable playoff schedules. 

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Evans has been a target hog with some efficiency issues this season thanks to leading the league in drops, but the real worry for his finishing schedule would be matchups with St. Louis Rams and Carolina Panthers in Weeks 15 and 17, respectively. The good news is Week 14 offers the New Orleans Saints. 

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons: Once again, Jones is clearly a starting stud in all formats, but expectations might be tempered with the Carolina Panthers' elite cover corner Josh Norman up twice in the fantasy playoffs. If you can net a comparable superstar like the Houston Texans' DeAndre Hopkins for Jones, it could prove wise. 

The Carolina Panthers and San Diego Chargers don't claim any top wideout commodities at this stage thanks to injuries along each team's depth chart, but each team claims tough matchups for the fantasy playoffs to consider. 

Top Playoff Tight End Matchups for the Fantasy Football Playoffs

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We likely should have just written seven slides about Greg Olsen of the Carolina Panthers. Not only is he dreamy, but Olsen nets an impressively inviting finish that is arguably the best batch of matchups among all skill players. 

Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers: The Atlanta Falcons have proved porous all season to opposing tight ends, while the New York Giants have ceded gobs of yards to the position as well. Olsen faces the Falcons twice with the Giants in the middle, forming a fantasy sandwich that could prove delicious for his investors. Even though two of these three games are on the road, Olsen's peerless rapport with Cam Newton has us confident in a massive finish. 

Ben Watson, New Orleans Saints: If Watson is floating around in fantasy free agency, he's a nice name to consider given that he faces three teams in the bottom seven of adjusted fantasy points allowed by position, according to 4for4.com.

Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars: We trust Watson's market share of his offense more than Thomas', but equally intriguing matchup metrics suggest we could stream this touchdown-producer in matchups with the Falcons and Saints in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. 

As for tight ends to avoid based on matchup metrics, the Baltimore Ravens face some stingy opponents in regard to positional allowance, while Charles Clay of the Buffalo Bills faces four top-10 defensive foes against tight ends. 

Streaming Defenses for the Fantasy Football Playoffs

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With fantasy defenses proving so matchup-dependent, let's delve into each week of the fantasy playoffs with an eye on streaming commodities. 

Week 14

The Jacksonville Jaguars host a generally conservative Indianapolis Colts offense in Week 14, as the Jags produced a worthy fantasy outing versus their division foes in Week 4, sacking Matt Hasselbeck three times and producing two fumbles. 

The Kansas City Chiefs just destroyed the San Diego Chargers in Week 11, holding them to just three points at home, and net the reeling Bolts again in Week 14. The Chiefs' raring pass rush could feast on the Chargers' patchwork protection scheme once again. 

Week 15

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Denver Broncos in a game that could offer a rash of sacks and favorable game flow as the Steelers will be positioned as home favorites. 

The Atlanta Falcons could produce solid upside in Jacksonville against a mistake-prone Jaguars offense. 

Week 16 

Once again the Chiefs enter the mix, as they host the Cleveland Browns, a group that has ceded the second-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this season. 

J.J. Watt and his Houston Texans head to Tennessee to face a Titans team that, as of press time, hasn't won at home this season and has ceded the fourth-most sacks in the league. 

Week 17

The Steelers and Chiefs might be a nice pairing to consider, as Pittsburgh nets a nice matchup with the aforementioned Browns. The Texans, meanwhile, make for another combo partner to consider given they net the inviting Jaguars for the final week of the season. 

All fantasy scoring and points against info courtesy of  ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

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