Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets: What's the Game Plan for New York?

The last time the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins met, New York put together one of its more impressive outings of the season. 

Chris Ivory rushed for a career-high 166 yards, Brandon Marshall went more than 100 yards receiving, Eric Decker caught a touchdown and defensively, New York gave Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill fits. 

It was a complete effort from all sides of the ball, and one that ended in a New York 27-14 victory.

Since then, though, things have changed quite a bit. New York's impressive start to the season has taken a turn for the worse as the group has lost four of five. Miami fired head coach Joe Philbin after its loss to New York, and has since turned things around. 

So, as the two teams prepare to square off for the second and likely final time this season, what's the game plan for New York? Here's what the team has to do to get victory No. 5. 

Offensive Game Plan

The key to the Jets offensive attack isn't a secret. It's actually pretty well known. When Chris Ivory is running, and running well, the Jets are successful. When he's not, the Jets aren't. It's the most obvious commonality between New York's wins, and its losses. 

The issue as of late? Ivory hasn't been running very effectively.

In his last five games, Ivory has run for more than 41 yards just once. After it appeared he got back on track with 99 yards rushing against the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago, against the Texans last Sunday, Ivory managed only 36 yards...23 of which came on one carry. 

That's quite the drop off from a player who, through the first four games of the season, was averaging 115 yards a game.

So what exactly is the issue with the Jets rushing attack? Yes, teams are stacking the box, but that's expected. The issue is it isn't just the "eighth defender" that's running free to the ball. It's two, three guys on each and every play who are going unblocked and simply pursuing into the running lane to bring down Ivory. 

Against the Washington Redskins, Ivory went off for 146 yards. Regularly, this is what happened on each carry:

The line sealed those at the point of attack, those blocking backside got to the second level, Ivory found the cut-back lane and turned five-yard rushes into 30-, 40-yard gains. 

Last week against the Texans, this is what was happening to Ivory each time he touched the ball. As soon as the back got the handoff, he was met by two or three defenders in the hole. The results were runs for a yard or two at the most. The majority of the time, Ivory was met at or behind the line of scrimmage. 

The issue with the Jets is that it's no longer just eight-man fronts that are shutting down the run. Even when the Jets spread the formation, forcing the defense to vacate the box, the offensive linemen still aren't winning their individual battles. 

In the screen grab below, while J.J. Watt cleans up with a tackle for a loss, there are two other players pursuing the play untouched and in position to make the play if Watt doesn't. The Jets offense is in a funk, and the fact even just seven guys are able to shut down the team's rushing attack is alarming.

That extra defender who used to need to be in the box to contain Ivory is now being thrown over to triple- and double-team wideout Brandon Marshall, thus shutting down the Jets passing attack, too.  

If the Jets can't get the running game going, it's hard to imagine the offense getting back to how well they were playing in the beginning of the year. 

Defensive Game Plan

Ever since Philbin was fired and replaced by Dan Campbell, the Dolphins have had a renewed determination to run the ball. Yes, Ryan Tannehill is one of the up-and-coming quarterbacks in the NFL, but a QB's best friend is a rushing attack. It makes his life easier. 

So, with a back like Lamar Miller, why not feed him the rock? Get him going, get the defense thinking run, then attack with a pass. 

Before (4 Games)
Carries	Yards	YPC	Touchdowns
37	131	3.5	0
After (6 Games)
Carries	Yards	YPC	Touchdowns
77	434	5.6	5 TD

See, what the Dolphins figured out under Campbell is that when a team establishes a running game, it, in turn, makes a quarterback's life that much easier. When a defense doesn't fear the run, not only does that allow them to take a player out of the box and put them in coverage (as has been happening to the Jets), it also allows a pass-rusher to disregard covering the run and simply focus on getting up the field. 

But with a run game, all of that changes. Suddenly, an extra defender can't play the pass but has to be brought back in to play near the line. Suddenly, pass-rushers can't focus on simply getting after the quarterback but must hesitate slightly to see if it's a run before getting up the field. 

It's not surprising that since the Dolphins have changed their philosophy from pass-happy to balanced, Tannehill's play has improved. In the first four games of the season, Tannehill just once had a quarterback rating of more than 90. In the six since, he's had a quarterback rating of more than 90 in all but one game. 

For the Jets, the team is going to be focused on shutting down that run, and thus forcing the Dolphins to revert back to their prior pass-happy ways. Once the Jets can get the Dolphins passing, the goal will turn to getting pressure on Tannehill. 

Why? Because the Tannehill who is allowed to sit clean in the pocket and scan the field, compared to the Tannehill who starts running for his life, are two very different quarterbacks. Pro Football Focus illustrates that. 

Tannehill has felt "no pressure" on 239 drop backs. On those drop backs, he's completed 66.7 percent of his passes and has thrown 11 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. That's a 92.3 quarterback rating. 

When a team turns up the heat and pressures him, Tannehill is completing just 50.4 percent of his passes and has thrown six touchdowns to five interceptions with a quarterback rating of 67.8. 

Key Matchups and Players

Brandon Marshall vs. Brent Grimes, Jamar Taylor

While the struggles of Chris Ivory and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been the most talked about around Florham Park, those of Brandon Marshall are beginning to catch a bit more notice. 

After originally starting the season red-hot, Marshall has come upon difficult times. With defenders no longer fearing the Jets rushing attack, two and three defenders have been tasked each week with making sure Marshall doesn't beat them. Ask Marshall himself, or Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, and each will tell you if Marshall isn't double-teamed, it's a bit of a shock. 

As a result, the need for Marshall to make plays when the opportunity presents itself have become greater because, well, the team just doesn't know when the ball will be able to be thrown his way again. Marshall, in turn, needs to ensure he makes the plays thrown his way. 

He just hasn't been. 

Of players who have played at least 50 percent of their team's snaps, PFF has Marshall tallied with eight drops this year. That's the third-most in the NFL. Four of those eight drops have come in the last two weeks, which, not surprisingly, have both ended in Jets defeats. 

Couple those drops with the lack of production the past several weeks (Marshall has gone for more than 100 yards just once in his last five games) and you've got a player desperately looking to get back on track. 

The Dolphins? They may be just what the doctor ordered. 

When the two teams met earlier this year, Marshall caught seven passes for a season-high 128 yards. Three of those catches and 31 of those yards came when covered by Miami cornerback Jamar Taylor; another three passes and 89 yards came when covered by Brent Grimes. 

It's likely whoever is matched up on Marshall will get some safety help, but either way, will Marshall be able to snap out of his own funk with a big game against a team he's already burned?

Jeffrey G. Pittenger-USA TODAY Sports

Ndamukong Suh

When the Jets and Dolphins last met, Suh, believe it or not, was kept in check by Jets guard Brian Winters. The former third-round pick played arguably the best game of his career against one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL. 

Since that game though, Suh's season has turned around. 

In his last five games (mind you, Suh's a 4-3 defensive tackle), the NFL's newest $100-million man has recorded four sacks, 28 tackles, 12 quarterback hurries and seven quarterback hits. He's been a force, dominant and has played every bit as good as he did during his few NFL seasons in Detroit. 

Now, Suh will get a chance to go up against the player who he played maybe his worst game against. 

While Suh is a player who's always worth watching, a motivated Suh out for revenge should draw an extra bit of attention. The Dolphins are still very much in the playoff hunt, and a win against the Jets will go a long way in making those hopes a reality. 

And if the Dolphins want a victory over the Jets, they'll need Suh to step up. 

With a Jets win

It won't solve all of the team's problems, but it will get things a bit back on track. The Jets don't have to win out, but another loss and the team will be put in that situation. Actually, this is a bit of a must-win for the Jets. A loss to Miami and the Jets will be in the basement of the AFC East. 

With a Jets loss

You can end any hopes of a Jets playoff appearance in 2015. A loss to an AFC East opponent who's also looking to grab one of the same Wild Card spots the Jets are? That would be a punch New York can't get up from. At this moment, the Jets have four teams ahead of them for a Wild Card spot. They simply can't afford any more losses to teams in the AFC. 

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

The New York Jets are in a funk. The Miami Dolphins won't be the team that snaps them out of it. 

Everything the Jets were doing so well in the beginning of the season, (forcing turnovers, playing suffocating defense, passing the ball effectively, running the ball) they aren't anymore. At times, the offense can't seem to get out of its own way. More times than not, the defense doesn't seem able to stop a high school team. 

While the Dolphins aren't a stud team, they are one that is out looking for revenge after being embarrassed by the Jets six weeks ago. Suh will be motivated, Miller will be motivated, Landry, Tannehill...the list goes on and on. 

This is a game that has all the makings of one that will have the boo birds out in bulk by the second quarter.

Look for Suh to do to Winters what Watt did to Jets offensive tackle Breno Giacomini a week ago. Look for Fitzpatrick and Marshall to continue to struggle with no rushing threat to speak of. Look for the offense to sputter, and the defense to eventually break down.

Can the Jets win this game? Absolutely. On paper, they're the better team.  

But right now, nothing is going the Jets way. And it won't on Sunday. 

Dolphins 27, Jets 17

Connor Hughes is the New York Jets beat writer for the Journal Inquirer and Scout.com. All quotes, practice observations and advanced stats referenced are gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Connor can be reached on Twitter (@Connor_J_Hughes) or via email ([e-mail])