Daily Fantasy Football November 25: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

That heat you feel is the competition dialing up as the daily fantasy football season burns on. Or it’s your kitchen appliances working overtime in preparation for Thanksgiving. Either way, it’s critical to monitor players’ stocks with just six weeks left to score in the 2015 season.

The three games on Thanksgiving Day are tantalizing for owners looking to sink their teeth into early action. I prefer to approach Thursday games like political or religious debate at the dinner table: safely on the sidelines.

But, I appreciate that the matchups between the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions; the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys; and the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers might be too much to resist. Indulge yourself in the extra Thursday helping if you must, but this stock report is sticking to Sunday.

Stock Up

Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($4,500)

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Rawls’ salary jumped $700 from last week thanks to 209 yards and a touchdown on 30 rushing attempts, plus 46 yards and a touchdown on three receptions against the rebuilding San Francisco 49ers. Only 1.6 percent of Millionaire Maker participants benefited from Rawls' first-place, 43.5 point-performance because he wasn’t announced the starter until shortly before kickoff.

Marshawn Lynch ($6,500) missed the palatable matchup with an abdominal strain that will require surgery, according to NFL.com.

NFL Network analysts Steve Wyche's, Joey Galloway's and Brian Baldinger’s praise for Rawls indicates that the undrafted pride of the Central Michigan Chippewas can carry the load: 

"

"They got rid of Robert Turbin, Christine Michael. Because they KNEW they had something special." https://t.co/ydSrbidu0L

— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2015"

He'll probably be the highest-owned player this week, with good reason. 

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans ($5,400)

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Viewers may have been too stunned by the Jacksonville Jaguars' spicy-brown, color-rush uniforms to notice Walker’s season-high 109 yards on nine receptions. DraftKings overcame the distraction, bumping Walker’s Week 12 salary up another $600; a $2,000 increase on his opening-day price.

No tight end outperformed Walker over the past four weeks:

	Gms	Tgts	Rec	Yds	TDs	PPG
Delanie Walker	4	7.0	6.0	79.5	0.5	18.2
Greg Olsen	4	8.0	5.3	69.8	0.8	16.7
Rob Gronkowski	4	6.5	4.3	77.5	0.5	16.5
Benjamin Watson	3	6.3	5.7	75.3	0.3	16.2
Tyler Eifert	4	5.3	3.8	35.0	1.3	14.8

Rob Gronkowski ($7,900) costs $2,500 more than Walker with at least as good a prognosis in Week 12. Follow the trends and trust Walker in your TE slot.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,300)

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

Robinson’s price ticked up another $300 for Week 12, marking a $2,400 increase from his season-low in Week 2. The second-year phenom out of Penn State joined the top 10 most expensive receivers with the salary bump.

Robinson accounted for 113 of Blake Bortles’ ($5,900) 242 passing yards on just five receptions. It’s the sixth game in a row he’s either scored a touchdown or eclipsed 100 yards receiving. What he lacks in receptions—tied for 17th with 50—he makes up for with yardage—sixth with 871.

Robinson’s 17.4 yards per catch is three YPC higher than the next two receivers with at least 50 catches: A.J. Green and Antonio Brown (14.4 YPC for both).

A Week 12 matchup with the wilting San Diego Chargers defense predicts Robinson’s stock will continue to rise.

Stock Down

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots ($8,000)

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Brady’s $600-dip is the lowest his salary has dropped since Week 5 ($7,800).

The first factor toward his falling price is a road game in Denver against a Broncos defense yielding the least amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks while ranking No. 1 overall in yards and offensive/special teams points against (16.5, per DraftKings).

The second is the wave of injuries sweeping through Brady’s top targets. He already lost Julian Edelman (in Week 10) and Dion Lewis (Week 9)—first and fourth in targets, respectively.

Tom E. Curran of CSN New England reported the team is expecting Aaron Dobson ($3,000) to miss Week 12.

There are questions whether Danny Amendola ($4,700)—New England’s top receiver Monday night—will be available, but Curran confirmed he could be ready if his minor knee strain rehabs swiftly throughout the week.

Even with Amendola, Brady is completely avoidable as the most expensive quarterback on the board facing the toughest defense in the league.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,700)

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

Williams’ price slipped $800 coming off Pittsburgh’s bye with a road affair against the Seattle Seahawks on the schedule.

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog against the top defense in running back points allowed. The adverse matchup coupled with Williams’ disappointing 7.9-point effort in Pittsburgh’s Week 10, 21-point blowout of the Cleveland Browns reads like a flashing warning sign for negative correlation.

Head coach Mike Tomlin answered speculation on whether the 32-year-old veteran would surrender playing time to avoid wearing down, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Ed Bouchette on Twitter: 

"

Tomlin: There will be no attempt to work in Todman or Pead at RB to get them some work for something that might happen later. Must win now

— Ed Bouchette (@EdBouchette) November 24, 2015"

Tomlin’s statement doesn’t change the fact that Williams faces an uphill battle this week, shifting the spotlight to better options for a similar price in Chris Ivory ($5,800) and/or Doug Martin ($5,800).

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($5,700)

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Hilton’s salary slumped another $500 this week, down $1,200 from Andrew Luck’s last start in Week 9, $1,900 overall from his 2015 high point in Week 1.

The WR1’s price dump is partially due to his own ineffectiveness on a struggling offense, while also a reaction to 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck ($5,400) retaking the reins. It amounts to a contradictory opportunity where Hilton’s dropping stock likely found its low point, reflecting his disappointing season while turning him into an intriguing buy-low option against a subpar Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense.

Hilton maintained a decent floor in Hasselbeck’s three starts, tied for ninth in targets with Calvin Johnson (26) during Weeks 4, 5 and 11. However, Hilton’s ceiling hung drastically low in those three games, finishing tied for 28th in PPR scoring at 10.7 points per game.

Essentially, Hilton becomes a possession receiver with Hasselbeck instead of the hit-or-miss upside play he’s been with Luck. You can gamble he’ll find paydirt against the 20th-ranked Bucs D in points allowed to WRs and probably benefit from a contrarian ownership rate.

The downside is the low-scoring track record, not even returning double on his current asking price in three contests. It’s a venture not suited for cash games or the risk-averse.

Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference. CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Las Vegas odds are provided by OddsShark. Fantasy points allowed rankings based on DraftKings scoring. Week 10 DraftKings stats courtesy of RotoGuru, unless otherwise noted.

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