NFL Predictions Week 11: Full Projections, Odds, Highlighting Top Fantasy Stars

Top fantasy football players come in all different packages.

There are established superstars. There are healthy bodies replacing those injured established superstars. There are rising phenoms adored by everyone and overlooked veterans who keep producing with little fanfare.

Two of those experienced performers will carry hands into a difficult matchup. Those guys won't receive the same hoopla as a young passer on a roll and set to collide with a cupcake opponent. Ultimately, they are all dependable Week 11 options for any fantasy lineup.

Away	Home	Spread	O/U	Prediction
Denver Broncos	Chicago Bears	Even	40.5	17-16 CHI
Dallas Cowboys	Miami Dolphins	Even	46.5	27-23 DAL
Oakland Raiders	Detroit Lions	Even	50	28-20 OAK
Indianapolis Colts	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -5	47.5	24-23 IND
St. Louis Rams	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -2.5	41.5	17-13 BAL
Washington Redskins	Carolina Panthers	CAR -8.5	44.5	27-17 CAR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -5.5	45.5	26-20 PHI
New York Jets	Houston Texans	NYJ -3	40.5	24-16 NYJ
Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	KC -3	44.5	31-24 KC
San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -13.5	39.5	23-9 SEA
Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Even	44	24-20 GB
Cincinnati Bengals	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -4.5	49	28-25 ARI
Buffalo Bills	New England Patriots	NE -7.5	48.5	30-23 NE

Betting lines courtesy of Odds Shark. 

Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders

Let's start with a game. Here's a blind taste test of passing numbers from two NFL quarterbacks:

Player	Pass YD	CMP %	YPA	Pass TD	INT
A	2,396	64.2	7.58	21	6
B	2,270	63.3	7.25	21	3

Common sense indicates one player must be Derek Carr. The first line belongs to the Oakland Raiders quarterback, who has leaped mountains during his second season. ESPN Stats & Info examined his stark improvement, noting his significant progress throwing downfield and on third downs:

Player B? Aaron Rodgers. Last weekend, the reigning MVP mounted an inefficient 333 passing yards and two scores against the Detroit Lions on 61 passing attempts. Now Carr gets a turn against the league's No. 23 passing defense, which has yielded a 70.0 completion percentage and 8.0 yards per pass attempt.

Over his last four games, Carr is averaging 306 passing yards per contest while procuring 13 touchdowns. Two of those matchups occurred against top-10 passing defenses, but he surpassed 300 yards against the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings.

In four bouts against opponents entrenched in the bottom half in terms of passing defense, Carr has compiled 1,255 passing yards and 12 touchdowns. Holding the keys to a dynamic Raiders offense, he's an elite quarterback play this weekend. Anyone who owns Rodgers and Carr actually has a tough decision to make.

Projections: 23-of-36, 305 Passing Yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Chris Keane/Associated Press

Fearful of wearing down 32-year-old running back Frank Gore, the Indianapolis Colts limited his snaps early in the season. With the team reeling and now losing Andrew Luck, those plans have seemingly flown out the window.

Gore has received 50 carries over his last two games, including a season-high 28 handoffs against the Denver Broncos. Per the Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder, head coach Chuck Pagano is reconsidering the veteran rusher's restrictions.

“If he’s rolling like that,” Pagano said Wednesday, “and we’re staying balanced and he feels good, we’re going to do what we have to do to win the ball game.”

Week	OPP	Rush	Rush YD	YPC	TD	Rec	Rec YD
8	@ CAR	22	70	3.2	0	3	22
9	DEN	28	83	3.0	1	1	19

Gore notched 22 touches in each of Indianapolis' two games started by Matt Hasselbeck, who will replace Luck on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. Although Atlanta ranks No. 3 against the run while relinquishing 3.7 yards per carry, it has also yielded 11 rushing touchdowns.

It's not a great matchup, but neither was Denver, which has limited the opposition to an NFL-low 3.5 yards per run. Fantasy owners didn't mind Gore's inefficient 103 yards, especially since it included a seven-yard score.

The Colts back is in line for at least 20 touches, and this is a player who has never averaged under 4.0 yards per rush during 10 full seasons.

Projections: 21 Rushes, 80 Yards, 2 Receptions, 15 Yards, 1 TD

Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Eric Decker is money in the bank. Few players offer a dependable source of touchdowns, but the New York Jets wide receiver has scored in all but one of his eight games this season.

He's also not an all-or-nothing gamble enjoying a fluky streak, notching six catches in each of New York's last four contests while averaging 69.6 yards per bout throughout the campaign. As highlighted by Rotoworld's Evan Silva, Decker is no longer playing second fiddle to Brandon Marshall:

He shouldn't mind the No. 2 designation against the Houston Texans. According to Football Outsiders, they rank No. 29 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against No. 2 wideouts. Only four teams have allowed more yards per game (66.5) to opposing sidekicks.

The Texans also haven't yielded a touchdown since Oct. 25, when the Miami Dolphins destroyed them with a 41-point opening half. Decker has enjoyed a favorable schedule, so it's too soon to label him matchup-proof. Then again, two strong performances isn't enough to label Houston an elite defense given its earlier struggles.

Continue to treat Decker as a trustworthy, high-end No. 2 fantasy receiver. No player is guaranteed scoring opportunities, but owners have to appreciate his enhanced odds.

Projections: 5 Receptions, 60 Yards, 1 TD