NFL Week 11 Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions Before Thursday Night

Uncertainty and change at the quarterback position is the major theme in Week 11 of the 2015 NFL season, a theme that is likely to make bettors sweat out their picks until the last minute.

For the Houston Texans, T.J. Yates is reportedly likely to start in place of Brian Hoyer, who suffered a concussion on Monday against the Cincinnati Bengals, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Two quarterbacks at very different stages of their career will be replacing injured signal-callers. The Denver Broncos' Brock Osweiler is in line to make his first NFL start in Week 11 in place of an injured Peyton Manning, while 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck will take over the reigns of the Indianapolis Colts while Andrew Luck recovers from various injuries. There could be even more changes due to injury.

Case Keenum gets the start for the St. Louis Rams, per the team's official Twitter account, taking over for an ineffective Nick Foles. Not all the quarterback upheaval is due to injuries or poor play. Tony Romo is back in the saddle for the Dallas Cowboys and will look to snap his team's seven-game losing streak, which coincides with his absence from the lineup.

Shifts at the sport's most important position can make things tough on oddsmakers and bettors alike. Here are the odds, a couple of prop bets and some predictions for Week 11. Game odds and prop bets are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, November 18 at 7 a.m. ET. 

Thursday, November 19
Sunday, November 22
Monday, November 23
Time (ET)	Away	Home	Over/Under	Prediction
8:25 p.m.	Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)	43	JAX 24-14 TEN
1 p.m.	Indianapolis Colts	Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)	47.5	ATL 21-17 IND
1 p.m.	St. Louis Rams	Baltimore Ravens (-1.5)	41	STL 17-14 BAL
1 p.m.	Washington Redskins	Carolina Panthers (-8.5)	45	CAR 28-24 WAS
1 p.m.	Denver Broncos (even)	Chicago Bears (even)	41	DEN 24-20 CHI
1 p.m.	Oakland Raiders (-1)	Detroit Lions	48.5	OAK 31-23 DET
1 p.m.	New York Jets	Houston Texans	N/A	NYJ 30-17 HOU
1 p.m.	Dallas Cowboys (even)	Miami Dolphins (even)	47.5	MIA 22-20 DAL
1 p.m.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Philadelphia (-5.5)	45.5	PHI 27-24 TB
4:05 p.m.	Kansas City Chiefs (-3)	San Diego Chargers	44	SD 28-21 KC
4:25 p.m.	Green Bay Packers (even)	Minnesota Vikings (even)	44.5	GB 20-17 MIN
4:25 p.m.	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)	40	SEA 34-19 SF
5:30 p.m.	Cincinnati Bengals	Arizona Cardinals (-5)	48	AZ 31-27 CIN
5:30 p.m.	Buffalo Bills	New England Patriots (-7.5)	48	BUF 30-27 NE

Total Interceptions
Total Passing Yards
Total TD Passes
Player	Over-Under
Brock Osweiler	Over 0.5 (-200), Under 0.5 (+150)
Case Keenum	Over 0.5 (-200), Under 0.5 (+150)
Mark Sanchez	Over 1.0 (-130), Under 1.0 (Even)
Tony Romo	Over 0.5 (-150), Under 0.5 (+110)
Brock Osweiler	240.5 (-120)
Case Keenum	188.5 (-120)
Mark Sanchez	250.5 (-120)
Tony Romo	265.5 (-120)
Brock Osweiler	Over 1.5 (+120), Under 1.5 (-160)
Case Keenum	1.0 (-120)
Mark Sanchez	1.5 (-120)
Tony Romo	Over 1.5 (-150), Under 1.5 (+120)

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears

Even just two weeks ago, it would have been unfathomable for Denver to have an even spread with Chicago. Change is swift in the NFL. The Broncos are on a two-game losing streak and will see Osweiler take the field against the Bears, who are coming off a 37-13 dismantling of the St. Louis Rams.

Osweiler took over for Manning against Kansas City in Week 10 after the latter's abjectly horrible performance. The 24-year-old thew for 156 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Sports Illustrated's Andy Benoit thoroughly dissected Osweiler's abilities in limited NFL action, noting that his mobility might allow Denver to expand its offense enough to play to his strengths and minimize his weaknesses: 

"

The zone scheme would put Osweiler on the move. The beauty is that the types of throws that blossom here don’t require great arm strength. Kubiak, you might recall, had a lot of success coaching Matt Schaub. When you move the quarterback or the pocket, the field effectively slices in half. (Quarterbacks don’t throw back across the field, away from their rollout, unless it’s a designed throw against the grain.) Thus, there are fewer reads and simpler either/or decisions to sort through. This can be especially helpful for a quarterback whose first NFL start is coming on the road against his former coach. John Fox is one of the few people in the league who is familiar with the specifics of Osweiler’s weaknesses. You can bet Fox and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will confer with [Adam] Gase (Osweiler’s former position coach) and gather the exact schematic wrinkles that Osweiler will least want to see.

"

Osweiler might not have to do too much to propel Denver to victory. Chicago has one of the league's worst run defenses, so the Broncos could turn to Ronnie Hillman and a sprinkling of C.J. Anderson to power the offense.

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Hillman's popped up for a couple 100-yard games this season, but he has struggled for consistency in his past three outings (37 carries, 103 yards). Then again, the three touchdowns in that span has sort of mitigated that issue.

The Bears are giving up 118.6 rushing yards per contest and have a young, inexperienced defense. If Osweiler can establish himself as even a halfway-decent passing threat and take care of the football—the latter something Manning hasn't been able to do all season—Denver is capable of a respectable point total in this one.

Chicago will come at Denver's defense with both facets of its offense in fine working order. Jay Cutler is on a bit of a roll, with six touchdown passes against just one pick in his last three games. Rookie running back Jeremy Langford has been magnificent the past two weeks in place of an injured Matt Forte, racking up 324 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. Forte himself might even be ready for Denver.

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

ESPN.com's Jeff Dickerson reports that Forte was listed as limited for Wednesday's practice.

“In this league, it’s about the more the merrier,” Bears coach John Fox said, per Dickerson. “You try to build competition within your own team. I think it makes everybody on your squad better. We’ll welcome Matt back with open arms.”

With Langford proving himself a capable NFL back, adding Forte in the mix would give Chicago plenty of flexibility on offense. Accounting for both NFL backs on the same play would make for an interesting wrinkle with which to counter an aggressive Denver defense.

If not, Langford appears capable of making plays on his own, but a return to form for the Broncos defense would likely spell doom for Chicago, even if Osweiler plays a mediocre game.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins

Romo's long absence from the gridiron has only amplified his importance to the team, perhaps even forcing the most stubborn of football fans to forget about his past high-profile errors and admit he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. ESPN Stats & Info showed just how poor Dallas has been without Romo at the helm: 

Cowboys fans once looking forward to perhaps a second straight NFC East championship are now facing the very likely prospect of missing out on the playoffs altogether. And yet, Romo isn't looking to come back and have the team just play out the string. He sent a loud and clear message this week, per the team's official Twitter account: 

He'll need to be at his absolute best to make that happen, and he likely won't have time to ease into things against a Miami team playing at home and very much in the AFC wild-card race.

The Dallas running game really is in tatters, with the team relying on the wholly unreliable Darren McFadden to lead an ever-rotating stable of backs. There is a chance for McFadden to bust out again in Week 11. Miami is allowing 135.6 rushing yards per game, second-worst mark in the league, but lately the run defense has been about as Jekyll and Hyde as one might expect from this wildly inconsistent team.

Miami allowed 100-yard performances to both LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams in Week 9, only to rebound the next week and limit DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to a combined 79 yards on 30 carries.

Dallas' burly offensive line must do all it can to carve out space for McFadden and keep Romo upright, lest he pick up another knock or find it difficult to shake off the rust. It helps that Dez Bryant has already returned to the lineup, although the star wide receiver is still dealing with foot, ankle and knee injuries, per Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News.

Brad Penner/Associated Press

It's difficult to say which version of the Dolphins will show up in any given week. Ryan Tannehill has regressed from a strong 2014 season, with 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions. He ranks 30th in the NFL among qualified signal-callers with a 35.2 QBR, per ESPN.com.

Lamar Miller may be averaging 4.9 yards per carry this season, but he's only topped the 50-yard mark three times this season. He has at least steadily improved in the passing game, picking up at least 50 yards receiving in three of the last four games. 

Miami might try to work in rookie Jay Ajayi more to give the team a one-two punch at running back and take some pressure off Tannehill. The Cowboys' middling defense isn't particularly great against either the run or the pass; it will be up to the Dolphins to force the issue in Week 11.

If they can come out with the same intensity that led them to blowouts of Tennessee and Houston in mid-October, it could be enough to overwhelm a Cowboys team that is hanging all its hopes and prayers on an immediate return to form for Romo.