College Football Picks Week 11: Vegas Odds, Spread Predictions for Top 25 Games
There's been some moving and shaking along the College Football Playoff rankings this week as a new team has entered the top four of the postseason picture.
Less than two months away from the national championship, there's still plenty of football left to be played, though, and a few more rankings to be released, for that matter.
Here are the current rankings:
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With LSU's loss to Alabama in Week 10, the Crimson Tide jumped up to No. 2 in the rankings, while Notre Dame took the Tigers' place in the top four.
Notre Dame's arrival means that there are two one-loss teams in the playoff spots, while the likes of Iowa and Baylor, who both are undefeated, sit in the fifth and sixth spots.
But the Fighting Irish have an easier remaining schedule compared to the likes of No. 6 Baylor. Notre Dame has Wake Forest, Boston College and their toughest game in No. 7 Stanford. Baylor, on the other hand, has No. 12 Oklahoma, No. 15 TCU and No. 8 Oklahoma State.
If the Bears win out, it would be awfully difficult leaving them out of the final four, even if Notre Dame wins all of their games and the other top three remain the same.
Let's take a look at the Top 25 schedule, the current odds, courtesy of OddsShark.com, and my spread predictions (not who will win) for each game.
| No. 11 Florida at South Carolina | 12 p.m. | UF -8.5 | Florida |
| No. 3 Ohio State at Illinois | 12 p.m. | OSU -16 | Ohio State |
| Kansas at No. 15 TCU | 12 p.m. | TCU -43 | Kansas |
| Maryland at No. 13 Michigan State | 12 p.m. | MSU -16 | Michigan State |
| Purdue at No. 18 Northwestern | 12 p.m. | NW -13 | Northwestern |
| NC State at No. 16 Florida State | 12:30 p.m. | FSU -10.5 | Florida State |
| Miami at No. 23 North Carolina | 3:30 p.m. | UNC -12.5 | Miami |
| Wake Forest at No. 4 Notre Dame | 3:30 p.m. | ND -27 | Notre Dame |
| No. 1 Clemson at Syracuse | 3:30 p.m. | CLEM -26.5 | Clemson |
| No. 2 Alabama at No. 17 Mississippi State | 3:30 p.m. | ALA -7 | Alabama |
| No. 8 Oklahoma St. at Iowa St. | 3:30 p.m. | OK ST. -13.5 | Oklahoma State |
| No. 14 Michigan at Indiana | 3:30 p.m. | UM -11 | Michigan |
| SMU at No. 20 Navy | 3:30 p.m. | NAVY -20 | Navy |
| No. 22 Temple at South Florida | 7 p.m. | TU -3 | Temple |
| No. 21 Memphis at No. 24 Houston | 7 p.m. | HOU -5 | Memphis |
| Arkansas at No. 9 LSU | 7:15 p.m. | LSU -9 | LSU |
| Oregon at No. 7 Stanford | 7:30 p.m. | STAN -8.5 | Stanford |
| No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 6 Baylor | 8 p.m. | BAY -6 | Baylor |
| Minnesota at No. 5 Iowa | 8 p.m. | IOWA -11 | Iowa |
| No. 10 Utah at Arizona | 10 p.m. | UTAH -4.5 | Utah |
| Washington St. at No. 19 UCLA | 10:30 p.m. | UCLA -8.5 | UCLA |
Game of the Week
No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 6 Baylor
Baylor has an opportunity to make one of three statements over the next three weeks. A convincing win over No. 12 Oklahoma will do just that and could leapfrog it over Notre Dame for the No. 4 spot in the rankings.
But a win by the Sooners could add another team to the playoff talks as they would catapult their way into the Top 10 with an upset over the Bears.
Regardless of who wins, all signs point to this game being a shootout. Baylor holds the best offense in the nation, averaging 665.6 yards per game and 57.4 points. The Sooners, though, are no slouches. This season, they're the sixth-best offense in the nation with 549.3 yards per game and 46.3 points.
Baylor is managing to keep up these big numbers without its starting quarterback, Seth Russell, whose neck injury forced freshman Jarrett Stidham into action. Stidham has looked like a seasoned vet, completing 77 percent of his passes for 750 yards with nine touchdowns and no interceptions.
Stidham is just a representation of head coach Art Briles' team, who spoke with ESPN.com's Jake Trotter:
"Y'all saw what we've been seeing. The guy is unbelievable. He's good...[He played] just like we knew he would. I told him [before the game], let's show the nation what we already know... We feel like we're a team of survivors. You can talk bad about us, say what you want. But when you look up in November, we're still around. You play us, it's going to be a tough out.
"
Oklahoma, though, has an offense that allows less than 200 yards a game, which means that Shock Linwood might be the man responsible for Baylor's biggest plays. It also is giving up just over 18 points per game, a touchdown less than Baylor, who has allowed 30 or more points three times this season.
It's the perfect storm of an instant classic, and it's going to be filled with quick strikes and a lot of offense. Even though Oklahoma holds the better defense, Baylor's offense is just too strong.
Prediction: Baylor defeats Oklahoma 45-38
Stats courtesy of ESPN.com
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