NFL Picks and Predictions Week 8: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Week 7 was great for my picks, particularly at the tail end, when both the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals covered in the night games. For the week, I went 7-5-1, essentially hitting 57 percent. Whenever you get above the key marks of 55 percent and 52.5 percent, you should be ecstatic.

Miami looked hot against Houston. The Jets proved they could go toe-to-toe with the Patriots. New Orleans won as straight-up dogs against Indianapolis. The Vikings trounced the Lions. Oakland defeated San Diego, though the Chargers did manage to post an incredible amount of garbage-time points. 

On the flip side, we were also wrong on five games. EJ Manuel clearly wanted to lock up the intercontinental title of horrible quarterbacking early in the Bills' London game against the Jaguars. Cleveland just couldn't handle the St. Louis defense, and the pressure busted pipes at the end of the battle. Kirk Cousins wants everyone to like his Redskins' win over the Buccaneers, but they failed to cover the spread. Betting on a third-string quarterback, even one on a contending team like the Steelers, proved to be idiotic.

The worst loss, though, was when Dallas allowed the Giants' Dwayne Harris, who is a former Cowboy, to score on a kick return after Dallas had tied up the game. If I had the chance to send these losing bets in again, I would have made three of them once more—Buffalo, Washington and Dallas—but we learned our lesson on Cleveland and Landry Jones, though it's too late to take advantage.

Our push was that disgusting Atlanta-Tennessee game that we will never speak of again. Seventeen points were scored. In an NFL game. In 2015.

We are now over 55 percent in all picks against the spread, with a slight increase to 56.9 percent in our "locks" this season. We have 13 games in total to toss suggestions for, including five locks, as always.

All picks ATS: 52-42-4 (.551)

Locks of the Week ATS: 20-15-1 (.569)

Thursday Night Football: Miami @ New England

Steven Senne/Associated Press

New England Patriots 36, Miami Dolphins 7

It was heat check time for the Miami Dolphins in the first game of Week 8. The Dolphins and interim head coach Dan Campbell eviscerated two weak teams after their bye week, but the Patriots were a much different squad than they had previously faced.

New England looks like as real of a title contender as anyone else in the league, and Miami has seemingly crashed back to earth. This game wasn't in doubt down the stretch. The Dolphins couldn't even put up some garbage-time touchdowns, which the Patriots are known for giving up, especially this season.

Still, the biggest loss for the Dolphins might be Cameron Wake, their defensive end who looks to be out for the season with an Achilles issue. Wake went from having no impact on the line to a four-sack game in the first match of the Campbell era. When it rains, it pours, and it's a torrential downpour in Miami after two sunny weeks.

Cover: Patriots

San Francisco @ St. Louis

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Opening line: San Francisco @ St. Louis (-7.5)

Current line: San Francisco @ St. Louis (-8.5)

ESPN's Evan Abrams dropped a nugget last weekend, stating that only the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have been underdogs in every game they've played this season. Currently, the Bears are favorites hosting the Minnesota Vikings after the Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites.

The 49ers? They opened up as 7.5-point underdogs on the road in St. Louis and have dropped all the way to 8.5-point dogs.

I do not trust the 49ers or the Rams.

I get why you wouldn't take San Francisco in this bet. That Rams defensive line against Colin Kaepernick seems like a giant car crash waiting to happen. On the flip side, St. Louis has scored 10 or fewer points in three of the past five weeks and is being asked to cover an 8.5-point spread.

The Nick Foles factor needs to be taken into account. His bad is just as low as Kaepernick's floor, and it's not like the Rams have a particularly good pass-protecting offensive line, either. Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com stated rookie running back Todd Gurley had the fourth-best rushing total of any running back making his first three starts since the merger.

Those first two starts featured no touchdowns from Gurley, as St. Louis just loves to shoot itself in the foot, though Gurley went to the ground to kill the clock against the Arizona Cardinals. Rich Hribar, who writes for various fantasy football websites, noted Gurley's incremental rise in yards per carry from 1.6 in the first quarter to 9.3 in the fourth.

My tip? If you have to, take San Francisco, but the best bet just might be taking the 49ers in the first half, followed by a well-timed nap.

The pick: San Francisco (+8.5)

Detroit vs. Kansas City (in London)

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Opening line: Detroit vs. Kansas City (-3)

Current line: Detroit vs. Kansas City (-4)

This line is just too high. The Kansas City Chiefs are 2-5, beating the Houston Texans, who might be the worst team in the NFL, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, who started their third-string quarterback, heading into London. Congrats on those two huge wins.

They are four-point favorites against a hungry Detroit Lions team that made some moves in the coaching staff. These are two bad squads, but I was prepared to take the points if it went over three, and here we are.

The pick: Detroit (+4)

Minnesota @ Chicago

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Opening line: Minnesota @ Chicago (+2.5)

Current line: Minnesota @ Chicago (-1)

Last season, the Minnesota Vikings were one of the most consistent spread teams in the NFL. This year, they are 5-1 against the spread, including three straight-up wins of over seven points. On the other hand, the Chicago Bears haven't cracked a win of over a touchdown all season and have lost by more than a touchdown in three of their six matches.

The Bears are in a weird spot. They lost receivers Brandon Marshall (to free agency) and Kevin White (to injury), which on paper looked like quarterback Jay Cutler was going to be hung out to dry. Despite that, he's 2-2 in games he both started and finished this season. The issue is, those two wins came against the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs, two teams that aren't considered in the playoff hunt midway into the season.

They are also coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions, who are winless in their other six matchups this year. Side note: The Lions just lost to the Vikings by two scores last weekend.

Chicago is coming off a bye, but so long as Minnesota's star running back Adrian Peterson doesn't choke on a can of Skoal on his flight to the Windy City, the Vikings have the clear edge. Minnesota wasn't respected last season and isn't respected this season. Their defense is quietly developing into a monster under head coach Mike Zimmer, but their offense is still a piece away.

Peterson is an aging running back who still flashes, but he's not nearly as consistent as he was in the past, even after a year off from the sport. Their offensive line is in shambles, to put it nicely. Their quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, is a decent prospect but is going to be a game manager, and the only real pass-catching threat the squad has right now is rookie Stefon Diggs.

That's going to be enough to cover the spread as the road team, as this line is essentially a toss-up with Minnesota as a one-point dog.

The pick: Minnesota (+1)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Opening line: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (+2.5)

Current line: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (PK)

Ben Roethlisberger is expected to be back under center for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they are home underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals? Not much more needs to be said.

I like the Bengals. They're legitimate Super Bowl contenders with how deep they are on the offensive side of the ball and on their defensive line. Still, a 2.5-point line in favor of Cincinnati on the road would reflect to the Bengals being favored by 5.5 points on a neutral field and 8.5 points at home, if we're going to assume home-field advantage is worth three points. There's not a team in the league I would take by more than a touchdown over this Steelers team when they're clicking.

If Roethlisberger is even half of what he was before the injury, Pittsburgh has a good chance to win this game. In my opinion, the Big Ben Steelers of earlier in the year were just as good as Andy Dalton's Bengals, and I would have set this line at three points and taken whichever side was adjusted from there. There are nearly 5.5 points of value in this line to me, which is rare in the NFL.

This one is a layup, even with Cincinnati coming off a bye week.

The pick: Pittsburgh (+2.5)

San Diego @ Baltimore

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Opening line: San Diego @ Baltimore (-3)

Current line: San Diego @ Baltimore (-3)

We're halfway through the season, and I don't think I've seen the Baltimore Ravens compete in the passing game defensively. It's there if you want it. Want to throw for 300 yards with ease? This is your team.

The identity of the San Diego Chargers rests on one player: Philip Rivers. Go back and rewatch that Green Bay Packers game from a few weeks ago. Rivers can put up points by himself, and the Chargers have decent coverage downfield. That's all they can do well.

This game, to me, projects like a prime Rivers chess match at the line of scrimmage, tearing up the Ravens' poor defense, while Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco tries to out-bomb the Chargers defense, just to realize they have some real playmakers in that area. Unless the Ravens just punch Justin Forsett down the throats of this team, a quarterback versus quarterback battle between these two squads should lead to a road victory for San Diego.

The Chargers are a West Coast team playing in the Eastern time zone in the early slate, but Baltimore coming off a Monday Night Football beatdown doesn't bode well for the team, either. It's not like playing at home has helped the Ravens this year. From a power-ranking standpoint, San Diego is a better team; therefore, a three-point line is too high.

Would we have expected Baltimore to have played a competitive game against the Packers? No. The Chargers simply had a meltdown last weekend, and it's time to cash in on their inevitable rebound.

The pick: San Diego (+3)

Houston @ Tennessee

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Due to the status of Marcus Mariota, it's hard to find a line on this game. On Saturday mornings, I post a last-minute betting guide, which will feature my pick on this game, assuming a line will be up by then, which it should.

Even if Zach Mettenberger is named the Tennessee Titans' quarterback, if the Houston line is anything above three points, I'm going to pound Tennessee. Mettenberger is going to get a lot of Jay Cutler treatment in the NFL, but Houston would kill for Cutler right now. Bill O'Brien couldn't control Ryan Mallett, who started four games for him this season, and was forced to boot him from the team.

J.J. Watt doesn't seem like the dominant force he was expected to be, as he's either overcoming some injury or illness in heroic fashion on a week-to-week basis. Throw that in with the fact that Houston's former first overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney, has one career sack, and this team is in full disaster mode.

Houston couldn't make an open-field tackle against the Miami Dolphins, and Tennessee runs a spread option system, just like Miami. If the Texans don't fix those issues immediately, they could be the victims of back-to-back embarrassments. Oh, and their top offensive player, running back Arian Foster, is now out for the season.

Even other NFL players, such as Packers guard T.J. Lang, are clowning the Texans in public. Time to pack it up and start looking at draft prospects. This team's season is over, and so should be general manager Rick Smith's tenure. It was a mediocre run.

New York Giants @ New Orleans

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Opening line: New York Giants @ New Orleans (-3)

Current line: New York Giants @ New Orleans (-3.5)

The New Orleans Saints have been coming on as of late, but in an odd way. They've drastically improved their standing with the public after a 0-3 start, but since then, they've beaten the Dallas Cowboys, headed by a backup quarterback, the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football and the Indianapolis Colts after an extended rest post-Thursday Night Football. I don't think they can sustain their success.

The New York Giants live on the Eli Manning roller coaster, but I somehow trust that tidal wave more than the Saints in this matchup. New Orleans' biggest threats this season come from its backfield, oddly enough. The Giants have proved they have a solid run defense, though they can't generate pressure to save their lives. No one expects Jason Pierre-Paul to suit up for New York this week, but when he does, he should fix their woes on the front line against the pass.

New Orleans has lost more multi-score games than the Giants, and New York has won more multi-score games than the Saints. The Giants are a better team, and New Orleans' home-field advantage isn't what it used to be. A three-point line insinuates that New York is even with the Saints from a power-ranking standpoint, which is false. If a Saints field goal nabs us a win, I'll take it.

The pick: New York Giants (+3.5)

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Opening line: Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-7)

Current line: Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-7.5)

Tampa Bay well might be the worst team in the league, but the Atlanta Falcons might be the most fraudulent 6-1 team in NFL history. The only teams Atlanta has beaten by two scores have been the Dallas Cowboys, who were starting Brandon Weeden, and the Houston Texans, who were just exposed against a lowly Miami Dolphins roster last week.

Quarterback Matt Ryan has gone from a franchise quarterback to a liability this year. The offense has improved on the line, which is helping Devonta Freeman, but the passing game still relies on receiver Julio Jones.

The Buccaneers may not be talented overall, but their quarterback, Jameis Winston, is starting to "get it." In the first four games of the season, he completed 55 percent of his passes and had a ratio of six touchdowns to seven interceptions. In the last two games, he's completed 69 percent of this throws, a 14 percent increase, and has three touchdowns to zero interceptions.

The public isn't going to want to bet the Buccaneers, which gives us value to snatch up when this line moved more than seven points in the Falcons' favor. Record is weighted too heavily in this matchup.

The pick: Tampa Bay (+7.5)

Arizona @ Cleveland

Ross Franklin/Associated Press

Opening line: Arizona @ Cleveland (+4.5)

Current line: Arizona @ Cleveland (+5.5)

Josh McCown might start for the Cleveland Browns this week at quarterback, but he's still a 36-year-old passer with a bum shoulder. We've seen what that can do to an All-Pro player like Drew Brees, let alone a quarterback who has bounced around the league for his entire career.

On the other side of the ball is what might be the most explosive offense in the sport. Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians want to put teams against the ropes and then spend 30 minutes beating a dead horse. Plus, on the defensive side of the ball, if you are turnover-prone, the Cardinals are going to score themselves.

If Johnny Manziel is forced in as Cleveland's quarterback, I'd expect a similar result as when San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick faced the team, when he had a higher passer rating throwing to Arizona defensive backs than his own receiving targets.

If you're a Browns fan, pray for McCown's health.

This is a 4.5-point line, which favors Arizona on a neutral field by 7.5 points and 10.5 points in the desert. Would I take the Cardinals at 10.5 points? No. I think they're a special team, though. So long as they are the outright favorites to win a game, I'm willing to go up to a 6.5-point line when they're not facing elite teams, and Cleveland is far from elite.

The pick: Arizona (-4.5)

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Opening line: New York Jets @ Oakland (+2.5)

Current line: New York Jets @ Oakland (+3)

The New York Jets have one of the most impressive resumes in the NFL right now. Last week, I said they were the defensive wonders of the league in the same way the Arizona Cardinals are the offensive breakout team. Still, there's no respect, even after they covered the spread against the New England Patriots.

They've beaten four teams by multiple scores in the Cleveland Browns, the Indianapolis Colts, the Miami Dolphins and the Washington Redskins. While that isn't a group of title contenders, how you beat a team is just as important as if you beat a team. Count how many squads have four wins of over seven points this season. It's the Jets, Cardinals, New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers. That's it.

Should you take the Jets on the road as 2.5-point favorites? Green Bay is on the road against an undefeated Broncos team, for example, and they're three-point favorites.

I know the Raiders' Amari Cooper and Derek Carr, also known as "AC/DC", are a fun, young combo in the NFL, but this New York defense isn't a joke. Tom Brady had to throw the ball 54 times against it, while his running backs combined for one total rushing yard in a one-score win.

Cooper is a big plus for the Oakland, but Darrelle Revis, the best cornerback in the league, might erase his presence. Then what? We get the 2014 Raiders when Carr was throwing five-yard passes because Oakland couldn't get its run or passing game going.

Think about it this way: A 2.5-point line in favor of the Jets on the road means they'd be favored by 5.5 points on a neutral field and 8.5 points in MetLife Stadium. They would have covered that line twice out of their three home games this season, with their one loss coming against a highly motivated Philadelphia Eagles team.

The pick: New York Jets (-2.5)

Seattle @ Dallas

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Opening line: Seattle @ Dallas (+6)

Current line: Seattle @ Dallas (+6)

This was the hardest game for me to pick this week. The Seattle Seahawks haven't looked like the Super Bowl caliber team of past years, but with all of that talent they have returning, it's hard to just write them off after a slow start, especially when they have only lost one game by more than seven points.

On the same train of thought, the Dallas Cowboys were one Dez Bryant judgment-call catch from facing Seattle in the NFC Championship Game last season. Though they haven't been stellar without Tony Romo under center, they haven't made fools of themselves, either, and they have stepped up on the defensive side of the ball.

A six-point line favoring Seattle in Dallas, when AT&T Stadium has been noted as a visitors' field, probably means that the Seahawks would be favored by eight points on a neutral field. In Seattle, that's more than likely an 11.5- or 12-point line. I wouldn't trust Seattle to cover that line, based on how the two have played in 2015. Just strictly from a logical standpoint, taking the Cowboys as six-point dogs at home looks like the pick.

The pick: Dallas (+6)

Sunday Night Football: Green Bay @ Denver

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Opening line: Green Bay @ Denver (+3)

Current line: Green Bay @ Denver (+2.5)

This is a horrible matchup for the Denver Broncos. The Green Bay Packers looked incompetent at the receiver position after losing Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery but still pulled out a win against the San Diego Chargers to stay undefeated. Adams now looks ready to go, which should help Randall Cobb bear the weight of their lost star Jordy Nelson.

So long as Aaron Rodgers has two decent targets on the field, opposing defenses are cooked. Even against Chris Harris, Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby, the Packers pass offense has the edge against the Denver pass defense, which should really test the unit. Up until this point in the season, the quarterbacks that Wade Phillips' defense has faced have been Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr and Josh McCown.

There's not an All-Pro-caliber passer in that group. The only winning team the Broncos have played is the Vikings, who have a 4-2 record. Denver's opponents have a combined 13-27 record in 2015. In those six wins, the Broncos have only won one by more than seven points: a victory against the Lions, a team well on its way to a top-five pick in the draft.

The Broncos are frauds. They are backed by a quality defense, but they cannot pass or run efficiently on offense. Green Bay's front seven is loaded with athletes, and with Morgan Burnett returning as the enforcing safety in a Kam Chancellor role, expect the already quality secondary to take a step up, too.

Denver has largely based its winning formula around scoring defensively and holding down bad quarterbacks this season, resulting in triumphs by the skin of its teeth. On the other hand, the Packers have won five of their six wins by more than seven points, with a mere seven-point victory coming two weeks ago against the Chargers when they were banged up on both sides of the ball.

A bye week is going to help Green Bay rehab and get back on track. No one can save Denver from Peyton Manning. This might be a six-sack game or a three-interception game from "The Sheriff." I'd expect to hear some Brock Osweiler mentions after Sunday Night Football this week.

The pick: Green Bay (-2.5)

Monday Night Football: Indianapolis @ Carolina

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Opening line: Indianapolis @ Carolina (-5.5)

Current line: Indianapolis @ Carolina (-7)

Indianapolis seems to be on the verge of blowing up its roster and starting over. It hasn't been able to use draft assets correctly since Andrew Luck's selection, other than T.Y. Hilton, who is now on a long-term deal. The Colts then tried to supplement their flaws with the addition of veteran free agents, which just ended up compounding the problem.

The owner of the Indianapolis Colts, Jim Irsay, has to convince Luck to stay on the roster. If everyone else needs to leave for that to happen, then so be it. The Colts routinely have busted coverage, allowing free receivers to run around in the middle of the field.

Cam Newton hasn't been overly efficient this season for the Carolina Panthers, but the level of difficulty at which he's asked to perform behind that offensive line and that receiving corps is high.

Playing Indianapolis just might be the cure the Panthers have been looking for in the air game. Head coach Ron Rivera is a great defensive mind, and a one-day extension in rest and preparation goes to the better coaching staff in Carolina.

The Panthers will win by a score, but they haven't necessarily been a team to blow squads out during their successful regular-season runs. So long as you can find this line under seven points, lean on Carolina this week.

The pick: Carolina (-5.5)

Locks of the Week

Associated Press

1. Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (+2.5)
2. New York Jets (-2.5) @ Oakland
3. Minnesota (+1) @ Chicago
4. Arizona (-4.5) @ Cleveland
5. Detroit (+4) @ Kansas City

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.