Utah Utes vs. Southern Cal Trojans Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Southern Cal began this season as the favorite to win the Pac-12 South, while Utah was expected to finish somewhere in the middle of the pack. Instead, the Utes are 6-0 and lead the division, while the Trojans are 1-3 both straight up and against the spread over their last four games and just canned their head coach. So two teams headed in different directions at the moment meet when USC hosts Utah Saturday night at the Coliseum.

Point spread: The Trojans opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.1-20.8 Trojans

Why the Utah Utes can cover the spread

The Utes are undefeated so far this season, 4-2 ATS, and now part of the College Football Playoff conversation after beating Arizona State last week 34-18, covering as five-point home favorites. Utah trailed the Sun Devils through three quarters 18-14, in part because it gave up nine points on an ASU kickoff return for a score and a safety. The Utes then scored 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, capping things off with Devontae Booker's 62-yard scoring jaunt with just over a minute to go.

On the night, Utah held the Arizona State offense, which had racked up almost 1,000 yards in back-to-back wins over UCLA and Colorado, to 257 yards, just 15 on the ground, and zero touchdowns.

Two weeks ago, the Utes outlasted Cal 30-24, and three weeks ago, they bombed Oregon up in Eugene 62-20. So at 3-0 in conference play, Utah owns a game-and-a-half lead in the Pac-12 South, with five very winnable games after this week.

Why the Southern Cal Trojans can cover the spread

Southern Cal is coming off a 41-31 loss at Notre Dame last week, missing the cover as a six-point road dog playing its first game under an interim head coach. The Trojans rallied from a 24-10 deficit to take a 31-24 lead into the fourth quarter, but they allowed the Irish to score the last 17 points of the game.

On the night, USC outgained Notre Dame 590-476, as quarterback Cody Kessler topped 350 yards passing for the third time this season, but a blocked punt returned for an Irish score and two Kessler interceptions proved costly.

Two weeks ago, the Trojans lost to Washington 17-12 but outgained and outrushed the Huskies.

Fortunately, last week's loss didn't hurt USC's chances to win the Pac-12 South. At 1-2 in conference play, they'll need some help, but a victory this week would drop the Utes a peg while giving the Trojans the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Smart pick

Utah has outrushed every opponent so far this season, while USC has been outrushed in four of six games. And winning the ground battle is a good way to win games and cover spreads, especially on the road. The smart choice here is with the Utes, plus the points.

Betting trends

USC is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games in October.

USC is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home.

Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.