Buying or Selling Early Super Bowl Favorites After Week 6

We’re officially past the one-third mark in the NFL regular season as Week 6 is in the books. Some preseason favorites for the Super Bowl have struggled out of the gate, while several others have ascended into the conversation. Super Bowl odds will continue to fluctuate throughout the season, but the first six weeks have started to weed out the pretenders.

There are five undefeated teams as we enter Week 7. Each has had a different journey to their success, but they’re all legitimate threats to make a Super Bowl run. To celebrate the arrival of Week 7, we’ll be buying or selling the franchises with the top seven odds to make the Super Bowl.

We’ll be using Odds Shark for our up-to-date betting lines. Several preseason favorites such as the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts have dropped out of the top seven. In turn, the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers are knocking on the door of being favorites.

How do you think the rest of the season plays out for these contenders? Let us know in the comments section after reading through.

New England Patriots

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The current Super Bowl favorites, regardless of conference, are the New England Patriots. The 5-0 Patriots have been dominant thus far, leading the NFL with a positive point differential of 16 points per game. Their offense has been too much for anyone to handle, leading to an average of 36.6 points a game.

Despite some concerns with the Patriots secondary, this is a team to be reckoned with. New England’s talented and deep front seven is stout in pass rushing and run defending situations. It’s going to be tough to sustain drives against this defense in the playoffs unless their opposition has a very high-functioning offense.

With 14-5 odds, the Patriots are big early favorites. There’s no reason to think this changes, barring injury. This is an easy buy, even if those odds don’t offer a significant return. 

Verdict: Buying

Seattle Seahawks

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As some teams trend upward or fulfill expectations, others see a letdown. The Seattle Seahawks have thus far disappointed. Their ugly 2-4 start has put them behind the eightball for the rest of the season.

What Seattle has accomplished until this season is still supremely impressive. There’s also time for them to turn their fortunes around in 2015. But their lack of quality drafting the last few seasons is showing as their depth is lacking in once-strong areas.

The trench play that carried the team for years has dramatically dropped off this season. Without the consistent offensive running game, quarterback Russell Wilson has been more limited because defenses aren’t respecting the run. It doesn’t help that the line has been atrocious in pass blocking, either.

Things are unlikely to change all of a sudden. Seattle banked on great athletes too much in recent drafts and overlooked good football players. Maybe that works out in the long term, but it is hurting right now. Time to sell on this team as a Super Bowl contender. 

Verdict: Selling

Green Bay Packers

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

The odds-on favorites to come out of the NFC and win the Super Bowl are the Green Bay Packers. With 16-5 odds, the Packers edge out several other strong competitors as favorites. Their 6-0 record has featured several impressive wins.

Their Week 6 win against the San Diego Chargers showed an improved defense. Despite fear over the offseason that their secondary would worsen with an injection of youth, the opposite has happened. Rookie cornerback Damarious Randall has been a huge coup for the franchise.

Green Bay has been fine without Eddie Lacy at his best, but getting him into top shape should be a priority. He received just four carries in Week 6, which shows the team doesn’t want to rush him into action. That’s the smart long-term play.

A healthy Lacy will keep the Packers running at optimal levels. With Aaron Rodgers in his prime, a defense that’s getting better and the potential of Lacy being rested for the playoffs, that's an explosive winning formula. This is an easy buy. 

Verdict: Buying

Denver Broncos

David Richard/Associated Press

The Denver Broncos we saw in Peyton Manning’s first two seasons with the franchise are a much different bunch now. Instead of an inconsistent defense that broke after bending too many times, this is now a defensive team. The Broncos defense is stacked with impact talent on every level.

It’s strange to say that about a team with Manning on it. But Manning has been a shell of himself. It is clear he is barely hanging on to his career at this point. His arm is simply too limiting for him to be as effective as we’ve grown accustom to seeing.

As far as the Super Bowl, a team that has a bad running game and a quarterback leading the NFL in interceptions will not make it that far. Somehow, Denver has the fifth-best odds to make the big game. There’s no reason to invest in Denver with 15-1 odds right now.

Verdict: Selling

Arizona Cardinals

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

It was fair to question whether the Arizona Cardinals had lost too much this offseason to contend. Factoring in losing defensive depth, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and the unknown status of Carson Palmer, this was a team potentially trending downward. No one is saying that now.

Arizona has the second-best point differential, even after a disappointing loss in Week 6. Its defense has been especially productive, featuring several stars like Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. But it has a potential fatal flaw.

The lack of a stud pass-rusher is concerning. Arizona often brings the house to force pressure, putting immense stress on its secondary to execute. The Cardinals have so far, but it could prove to be too big of a burden in the playoffs.

It may not matter if Arizona continues to score so well. The Cardinals are second in points scored per game because of the ageless Carson Palmer and a rejuvenated Chris Johnson. Based off what we’ve seen so far, we’re buying the Cardinals as the second-best NFC team, along with their 13-1 Super Bowl odds.

Verdict: Buying

Pittsburgh Steelers

Don Wright/Associated Press

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the most surprising name on this list. At 4-2 and close to getting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back from injury, the Steelers are in position to hit their stride as the playoffs near. They could end up being the hot team.

A 25-13 victory over the Cardinals with their third-string quarterback was shocking, quite frankly. The Steelers defense has been ghastly at times, but it stepped up against a major foe in Week 6. That unit is the team's key to success in its playoff quest.

If the Steelers can get to the playoffs, it’s hard to see them winning a shootout every game. This defense is so young and inexperienced at too many positions. We’re selling these high odds despite an explosive offense.

Verdict: Selling

Cincinnati Bengals

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

The Cincinnati Bengals may be the most surprising team thus far. The franchise added only one major free agent in the offseason and drafted several players who will be contributors in the long term, but not 2015. Yet, this is a team playing much better with very similar talent to last year.

Playmakers Gio Bernard, Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones have improved, and their improvement has greatly helped quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton’s been more consistent, as well. Whether he can play this well in the playoffs remains to be seen, but so far, he’s been pretty good.

Cincinnati’s coaching staff has been excellent, as well. Not only is it developing talent, but the game plans are second to none. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is a star play designer and maximizes the talent available to him. This is a team worth buying into.

With 13-1 odds, the Bengals are the second-best AFC team, according to Vegas. That matches what is on the tape, too. This young roster is blossoming before our eyes.

Verdict: Buying

All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. 

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