Week 7 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, over-Under Spreads and Line Projections

The best chance for bettors to win against the house when it comes to NFL picks is early in the week.

This time last week, Las Vegas had the Seattle Seahawks as 7.5 home favorites against the Carolina Panthers. Whoops—Carolina still sits undefeated after the 27-23 win bettors who did a bit of researching could have seen coming.

The same rules apply to Week 7. Foresight goes a long way in taking down a line oddsmakers have to get out early in the week just to have it. Below, let's do the legwork with an early look at every line and a deeper dive into some scenarios bettors should have an eye for this week.

NFL Week 7 Odds

Game	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Seattle at San Francisco	SEA -7	42	SEA 24-20
Buffalo at Jacksonville	BUF -4	42	BUF 27-26
Minnesota at Detroit	MIN -2.5	44.5	MIN 23-21
New Orleans at Indianapolis	IND -5	52	IND 28-27
Pittsburgh at Kansas City	N/A	N/A	PIT 17-14
Houston at Miami	MIA -4.5	43.5	HOU 24-18
N.Y. Jets at New England	NE -10	48	NE 28-20
Cleveland at St. Louis	STL -4.5	41.5	STL 14-10
Atlanta at Tennessee	ATL -4	48	ATL 30-17
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -3.5	43	WAS 21-17
Oakland at San Diego	SD -4	47	SD 33-28
Dallas at N.Y. Giants	N/A	N/A	NYG 30-20
Philadelphia at Carolina	N/A	N/A	CAR 24-17
Baltimore at Arizona	ARI -7.5	48	ARI 28-15

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.   

Early-Week Odds to Bet

Houston at Miami (-4.5)

John Raoux/Associated Press

The Houston Texans own Florida teams. 

In all seriousness, though, Houston has just two wins on the season. Coach Bill O'Brien's team beat Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, but in the latter discovered a competent starter under center in Brian Hoyer, who threw three scores with no picks.

It's hard to have the same confidence about the Miami Dolphins. Beating the Tennessee Titans 38-10 out of the bye with a new head coach in place is impressive, but the fact remains Tennessee is a one-win team and hasn't proved much in the way of consistency as an organization.

Bettors have to love this line. There's a big difference between feasting on an iffy offensive line with a rookie behind it and Hoyer, who can spam the ball to DeAndre Hopkins (52 catches, 726 yards and five scores) and Arian Foster.

Until the Dolphins survive a serious test, bettors have to roll with a team like Houston. The Texans are just getting healthy and see an AFC South that is wide open for the taking. Expect them to play like it on the road. 

Prediction: Texans 24, Dolphins 18

Atlanta (-4) at Tennessee

It's interesting the way the Titans got clobbered but aren't even 'dogs by a touchdown against one of the league's most explosive offenses.

More to gain for bettors, at least.

Tennessee rookie Marcus Mariota isn't bad by any means, but the weapons around him aren't notable and his line just lost starting center Brian Schwenke for the season, per John Glennon of the Tennessean. It's hard to understate just how important the center is to a rookie signal-caller.

In other words, keeping up with Matt Ryan doesn't seem plausible. Ryan has looked great, completing 65.5 percent of his passes with an 8-4 touchdowns-interception ratio. But he doesn't even have to do most of the work thanks to running back Devonta Freeman, who has 505 yards and nine scores on a 4.8 per-carry average.

Tennessee hasn't won since the opening week of the season. The offense has scored more than 14 points once and doesn't figure to make a leap without a key cog, so look for Freeman and Co. to have few issues pulling away.

Prediction: Falcons 30, Titans 17

Oakland at San Diego (-4)

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

It's easy to look down on the San Diego Chargers thanks to two straight losses. 

Maybe it's not such a good idea, though, as one came against a better-than-expected Pittsburgh Steelers team by all of four points. The other? A loss at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers despite 503 passing yards and two scores from Philip Rivers.

Coach Mike McCoy put it best after the game, per the Chargers on Twitter: 

A full-blown performance might not even be necessary against the Oakland Raiders. Oakland has a surprising two wins already, but they came against miserable AFC North teams Cleveland and Baltimore.

Derek Carr has thrown eight touchdowns to three picks, but even he has a hard time compensating for a porous defense that has allowed 20 or more points in four of five games and two 33-point allowances.

With Rivers red hot, returning home and hungry for a turnaround at 2-4, the safe bet is the Chargers pull away late under the guidance of the better quarterback. San Diego might not sweep this series like it did last year, but it's going to get off on the right foot at home.

Prediction: Chargers 33, Raiders 28

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Oct. 18. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.