Fantasy Football Week 6: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

The fantasy football season is flying by, and with Week 6 already underway, it’s time to once again look at some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential.

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

Tom Brady is the top fantasy option at quarterback once again this week in a Deflategate revenge game against the Indianapolis Colts. The only question seems to be: Will Brady throw for more than 350 yards or more than over 450?

The New York Giants’ Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. also find themselves in the top five of their respective positions with a friendly matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles on tap. What type of production can you expect from this dynamic combo?

Target hog DeAndre Hopkins is atop the wide receiver rankings for the first time this season, although he’ll need some love from his quarterback near the end zone if he wishes to actually finish on top. Find out how many touchdowns we expect Hopkins to score this week.

At the tight end position, Antonio Gates has earned a spot among the top five at the position despite the fact he has only played one game so far this season. Find out what to expect from Gates in his encore.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 6.

Quarterbacks: Tom Brady Revenge Game Will Lead to a Slew of Points

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Tom Brady

Tom Brady sits at the top of the quarterback rankings for the second week in a row, and as hinted at in the introduction slide, the question does not seem to be “Will Tom Brady have a good game?” but instead is “How good of a game will Brady have?”

Carson Palmer is now the third-ranked quarterback behind Brady and Aaron Rodgers, and Andrew Luck also finds himself in the top five given that he’ll likely be trying to keep pace with Brady.

Atlanta’s Matt Ryan was ranked No. 4, but he was excluded as he played on Thursday Night Football. This opened up room for Eli Manning to slip into the top five this week among quarterbacks who have yet to play.

The Projections

1. Tom Brady (at IND): 35-of-47, 372 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—30.9 fantasy points
2. Aaron Rodgers (vs. SD): 23-of-34, 308 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—24.3 fantasy points
3. Carson Palmer (at PIT): 18-of-29, 277 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—23.1 fantasy points
4. Andrew Luck (vs. NE): 31-of-49, 352 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions—22.1 fantasy points
5. Eli Manning (at PHI): 24-of-37, 287 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—21.5 fantasy points

Stats to Know

According to ESPN.com, the Baltimore Ravens have given up the most points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. That includes giving up two rushing scores to quarterbacks. Colin Kaepernick plays the Ravens in Week 6 and should be considered a sneaky tail-end QB1 option.

Josh McCown has been on an impressive tear lately, but that could come to an end in Week 6 as his Cleveland Browns host the Denver Broncos, who have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, according to ESPN.com. The Broncos have intercepted seven passes and have allowed just three passing touchdowns.

Matthew Stafford could have a bounce-back game in Week 6 against the Chicago Bears, who have given up 11 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions so far this season.

What the Metrics Say

Andy Dalton leads all quarterbacks with 0.68 fantasy points per dropback, per Pro Football Focus. He will likely come down from his hot streak (he’s currently the highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy), but he has established himself as a QB1 nonetheless.

One reason Dalton has been so successful is that he’s been accurate on 60.9 percent of his deep passes this season, tops in the league.

Russell Wilson has come under pressure on nearly half (45.6 percent) of his dropbacks this season. As a result, he has been sacked 22 times—most at the position.

Sam Bradford has had a rough start to his season, but he leads all quarterbacks (tied with Eli Manning) with 17 drops suffered. Bradford and Manning play against each other this week: Which quarterback will be supported best by his pass-catchers?

Running Backs: Don’t Give Up on Foster, Lacy

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Arian Foster

Arian Foster and Eddie Lacy haven’t lived up to their lofty expectations so far this season, but that doesn’t mean you should be looking the other way. Both are primed for a breakout game—which could come as soon as Week 6.

For his part, Foster touched the ball a promising 27 times last week, while Lacy remains the lead back in Green Bay’s explosive offense. Both players are in favorable situations, and it’s simply a matter of time before this is reflected in their fantasy totals.

Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman was ranked No. 3, but he played on Thursday Night Football, so he was excluded from the list.

The Projections

1. Le’Veon Bell (vs. ARI): 24 carries, 137 yards, 2 touchdowns; 4 receptions, 43 yards—30 fantasy points
2. Adrian Peterson (vs. KC): 23 carries, 154 yards, 2 touchdowns; 2 receptions, 23 yards—29.7 fantasy points
3. Arian Foster (at JAC): 18 carries, 101 yards, 1 touchdown; 7 receptions, 88 yards—24.9 fantasy points
4. Matt Forte (at DET): 20 carries, 98 yards, 1 touchdown; 6 receptions, 84 yards—24.2 fantasy points
5. Eddie Lacy (vs. SD): 21 carries, 108 yards, 2 touchdowns; 2 receptions, 14 yards—24.2 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Lacy finds himself ranked so high despite his subpar start to the season because of his favorable matchup against the San Diego Chargers, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Opposing running backs have gained 618 yards—over 120 per game—against San Diego.

In a similar vein, Foster is set for his first big game of the season against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs in 2015, per ESPN.com. Running backs have scored eight total touchdowns against the Jaguars this season, including three from Doug Martin in Week 5.

Arizona’s impressive three-headed backfield of Chris Johnson, David Johnson and Andre Ellington will be put to the test in Week 6 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs through five weeks. No running back has scored a touchdown against Pittsburgh yet. If any Cardinals running back is to do it, it figures to be D. Johnson, who has become the team’s primary goal-line back.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Bell is averaging 3.55 yards after contact per attempt—tops in the league. No running back has averaged more yards after contact per attempt since Adrian Peterson averaged 3.93 in 2012 (C.J. Spiller also averaged 3.58 that season).

Todd Gurley has racked up 180 yards on runs that were 15-plus yards long. That’s the most among all running backs through five weeks, yet Gurley has effectively only played two games.

Ryan Mathews is averaging over half-a-fantasy point per snap this season, tops among all running backs. He may not see many touches with DeMarco Murray’s role growing in Philadelphia, but Mathews is worth a flex look because of how efficient he has been; he hasn’t needed many snaps to do his damage.

Wide Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins' Target Volume Earns Him Top Spot

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins has been nothing short of a target machine so far this season—check out the stats and metrics below to find out just how much—and it has boded well for his fantasy value. Despite a dumpster fire at the quarterback position in Houston, Hopkins is still seeing enough targets to produce as an elite fantasy wide receiver. His big game could be coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6.

Atlanta’s Julio Jones ranked No. 3, but he played on Thursday Night Football, so he was excluded from the list.

The Projections

1. DeAndre Hopkins (at JAC): 12 receptions, 154 yards, 2 touchdowns—27.4 fantasy points
2. Odell Beckham Jr. (at PHI): 8 receptions, 108 yards, 1 touchdown—16.8 fantasy points
3. A.J. Green (at BUF): 7 receptions, 103 yards, 1 touchdown—16.3 fantasy points
4. Julian Edelman (at IND): 9 receptions, 97 yards, 1 touchdown—15.7 fantasy points
5. Larry Fitzgerald (at PIT): 6 receptions, 88 yards, 1 touchdown—14.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Per ESPN.com, the Philadelphia Eagles have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts so far this season, which is one of the primary reasons why both Odell Beckham Jr. and Eli Manning rank in the top five at their respective positions. Wideouts already have more than 1,000 combined yards against the Eagles this year—or 200-plus per game. Combined, the Giants receivers should top the 200-yard mark, with OBJ accounting for at least half of that yardage.

Hopkins is second in the league with 42 receptions and leads all receivers with 578 yards. He has had three straight games with 100-plus yards and back-to-back games with more than 150. And he gets arguably his best matchup yet against the Jaguars in Week 6.

Look for Calvin Johnson to score a touchdown this week. The Chicago Bears have given up eight touchdowns to opposing wideouts in the first five games of the season. 

What the Metrics Say

Per Pro Football Focus, James Jones is averaging 17.1 yards per target—most among wideouts so far this season by a wide margin. This makes him significantly more valuable in standard leagues than in points-per-reception leagues.

Colin Kaepernick had an NFL quarterback rating of 133.5 when throwing to Anquan Boldin last week, as Boldin racked up eight receptions for 107 yards and a score. The 49ers are playing against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, a team that has been generous to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.

Antonio Brown has been a dud since Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury, but don’t write him off. He’s still averaging 3.13 yards per route run this season—second-most in the league—and will get back to his usual ways once Big Ben returns.

Tight Ends: Antonio Gates Moves into Top 5 After Monster Debut

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Antonio Gates

Antonio Gates saw 11 targets in his Week 5 debut—turning two of those targets into touchdowns—and his big performance has given the fantasy community enough to trust him moving forward. Gates finds himself in the top five as his San Diego Chargers head to Green Bay to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 6. The Chargers could find themselves playing catch-up in that game, which could lead to another high-volume day for Gates.

Here’s an interesting—albeit largely inconsequential—note: Each of the top five tight ends this week is playing on the road.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (at IND): 7 receptions, 121 yards, 2 touchdowns—24.1 fantasy points
2. Greg Olsen (at SEA): 7 receptions, 94 yards, 1 touchdown—15.4 fantasy points
3. Travis Kelce (at MIN): 5 receptions, 74 yards, 1 touchdown—13.4 fantasy points
4. Antonio Gates (at GB): 5 receptions, 73 yards, 1 touchdown—13.3 fantasy points
5. Tyler Eifert (at BUF): 6 receptions, 68 yards, 1 touchdown—12.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Seattle Seahawks surprisingly remain one of the worst teams at defending tight ends, having given up the fifth-most fantasy points to the position so far this season, per ESPN.com. Up next: Carolina’s Greg Olsen, who is fresh off a bye week.

The Detroit Lions are right behind the Seahawks in terms of giving up fantasy points to tight ends. The Lions will play against the Chicago Bears and Martellus Bennett in Week 6. Bennett was inefficient in Week 5—catching just four of 11 targets—but if he sees such high volume again in Week 6 against the Lions, he could be in for a huge day.

Charles Clay could have a tough go of it in Week 6 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are one of only three teams who have yet to allow a tight end to score a touchdown on them this season. As a result, Cincinnati has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2015.

What the Metrics Say

Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Charles Clay and Jason Witten are the only tight ends in the league with at least 25 targets who have yet to drop a pass, per Pro Football Focus. Graham and Clay have been spotty fantasy options, but so long as they remain trustworthy in their respective offenses, the targets will continue to be there.

Speaking of Witten, he’s been acting more like a slot receiver this season than a tight end. Over 60 percent of his routes run have come via the slot. This could be partly due to Dez Bryant’s injury. When Bryant was on the field in Week 1, Witten ran less than 50 percent of his routes from the slot.

Baltimore Ravens tight end Crockett Gillmore could return to action in Week 6, so keep him in mind when setting lineups. He has scored 0.17 fantasy points per snap, fifth-best in the league among tight ends.

Kickers: Fire Up Hauschka in Week 6

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Steven Hauschka

Seattle’s Steven Hauschka is one of the safer bets among kickers this week. In three road games, he has booted five field goals. In two home games, he has kicked six field goals. He has another home game in Week 6 against the Carolina Panthers, who have a strong defense. This means some Seattle drives could stall in the red zone, putting Hauschka on the field for an extra attempt or two. He hasn’t missed yet this season.

Atlanta’s Matt Bryant was ranked No. 3, but he played on Thursday Night Football, so he was excluded from the list.

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (at IND): 3/3 FGs, 5/5 XPs—14 fantasy points
2. Justin Tucker (at SF): 3/3 FGs, 2/2 XPs—11 fantasy points
3. Steven Hauschka (vs. CAR): 3/3 FGs, 2/2 XPs—11 fantasy points
4. Mason Crosby (vs. SD): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Brandon McManus (at CLE): 2/2 FGs, 2/2 XPs—8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Kickers have yet to attempt a field goal against the Tennessee Titans. This interesting (but potentially worthless) stat will be pointed out until it changes.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have given up the most fantasy points to opposing kickers so far this season, according to ESPN.com. And it could actually be worse for them. The Jaguars have had 16 field goals attempted against them—tops in the league—but three of those attempts were missed. Nick Novak of the Houston Texans gets to play against the Jaguars in Week 6.

New York Giants kicker Josh Brown has the second-most fantasy points among kickers so far this season, and he’ll play against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, who have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to kickers in 2015. It’s a great matchup for Brown.

Defense and Special Teams: Jets Top Stream Options Against Redskins

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

The Denver Broncos are once again the top-ranked D/ST unit, but they are likely owned in all leagues, so they aren’t really a “streaming” option. The New York Jets defense, however, is available in a fair number of leagues. The unit ranks No. 2 this week and should be a top priority if you’re streaming defenses.

The Projections 

1. Denver Broncos (at CLE): 14 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
2. New York Jets (vs. WAS): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks
3. Seattle Seahawks (vs. CAR): 17 points allowed, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 sacks
4. Arizona Cardinals (at PIT): 21 points allowed, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 5 sacks
5. Cincinnati Bengals (at BUF): 21 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks

Stats to Know

The Denver Broncos D/ST has more fantasy points so far this season (88) than the bottom eight D/ST units combined (San Francisco, Miami, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Houston, Cleveland, Indianapolis and Chicago.)

Despite being 0-5, the Detroit Lions D/ST could be a stream option this week as the team squares off against the Chicago Bears, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs so far this season, according to ESPN.com. 

The rankings for each position are based on the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros. 

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow are from ESPN.com or NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow are courtesy of Pro Football Focus.