
Predicting Fantasy Football's Hottest Waiver-Wire Names of NFL Week 6
Charcandrick West is way more popular these days than Kanye. At least in fantasy football leagues. The Chiefs' understudy for injured superstar Jamaal Charles is now vaulted into the limelight—universally owned in competitive leagues after being the top waiver addition of the past week.
While I can't accurately tell you who the next West might be, given that such instantaneous elevations often require injury news to occur atop respective depth charts, it is of value to consider what widely available players are poised to gain value on the doorstep of Week 6.
Each one of the players we profile in this piece is still available in at least half of ESPN leagues, with several proving wholly ignored on the marketplace. These aren't stars or standouts, especially as we are nearly 40 percent through the fantasy regular season, but all are prospects who can potentially help fantasy owners as byes and the attrition of the campaign influence the market.
Going back to Week 4's game tape, we find a certain rookie receiver in Minnesota flashing good hands and a reliable route tree, as Stefon Diggs could be a name we're all chasing next week on the waiver wire. Proactive management can save a fantasy season. I'd much rather be a week early on an intriguing prospect than sit on some low-ceiling veterans at the end of my imaginary bench.
Please join us as we delve into some interesting skill players who might be earning FAAB (free agent auction budget) cash or high waiver bids come next week. As always, please share any names and numbers in the comments section that interest you as under-the-radar assets heading into the weekend of NFL action.
Vikings Rookie Stefon Diggs Could Become Teddy Bridgewater's Top Target
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Vikings rookie receiver Stefon Diggs is owned in just 1.4 percent of ESPN leagues as of press time. It's somewhat understandable given that he's played just one NFL game and had a bye week after his stirring professional debut in Week 4.
Facing the Broncos' elite pass defense in a Week 4 loss in Denver, a group that has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts at just 119.2 per game, Diggs recorded the most yards of any Minnesota receiver this season in a single game (87) while consuming 10 targets from Teddy Bridgewater, another positional peak for the team this season.
The tape on Diggs' debut really pops. While it's undeniable that he put the ball on the carpet twice in the game, although Diggs recovered both fumbles himself, it's equally irrefutable that he showed impressive shiftiness out of his breaks and regularly got free off the line versus true Pro Bowl-caliber cover corners Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr.
According to Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune, Diggs made team history in his debut, as his six receptions tied the franchise record for a regular-season debut.
Diggs' teammate Charles Johnson was drafted as the third Johnson among wideouts this summer, which equates to going 34th off the board on average at the position in ESPN leagues and 88th overall among NFL commodities. Johnson has played on 129 offensive snaps this season to Diggs' 41, per Football Outsiders. Despite all those live reps, Johnson has been targeted just eight times by Bridgewater this season, recording six receptions for 46 yards.
Diggs, as we mentioned, had 10 targets for six receptions and 87 yards in his debut two weeks ago. It is clear Bridgewater has developed an early rapport with Diggs, one that could continue this Sunday in facing the Chiefs, a secondary that has allowed 228.6 yards per game to opposing receivers, the most in the league according to ESPN's fantasy points allowed database.
Johnson hasn't played since Week 3 due to a rib injury but was spotted back at practice on Wednesday, according to report from Andrew Krammer of 1500 ESPN in Minnesota. Although, Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported Johnson revealed he is "still evaluating" if he'll play this week. Krammer also reported wideout Mike Wallace is dealing with a knee injury suffered in that Week 4 loss to Denver.
Opportunity is what Diggs needs to build on his strong pro debut. With both Johnson and Wallace ailing, snaps and routes should be available for the Maryland product. Even as he's not the biggest specimen for an outside receiver, Wallace himself even compared Diggs to former Steelers teammate and current all-world wideout Antonio Brown in a video interview posted on the team's website.
Such lofty praise is clearly premature, but with massive mitts—Diggs' hand size rates in the 85th percentile among draft prospects at the position since 1999, according to Mockdraftable.com—and impressive sub-4.5 speed, I'm consolidating shares of Diggs in all fantasy formats with 12 teams or more.
The Colts' Ahmad Bradshaw Earns Instant Interest in PPR Leagues
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Talented fantasy touts and top Twitter follows Rich Hribar and C.D. Carter worked to develop a new receiving efficiency metric for XN Sports back in 2013. The metric is called FPPPR, or fantasy points per route run. The goal of the advanced stat is to improve on the window fantasy points per snap offers by isolating fantasy production to simply routes run, removing blocking duties for tailbacks and tight ends and revealing real receiving usage on a more granular level.
The Colts just signed veteran back Ahmad Bradshaw, per NFL Media's Rand Getlin (h/t NFL Media's Dan Hanzus). While it's not often that we would endorse a guy who was a street free agent into mid-October, Bradshaw's familiarity with Pep Hamilton's offense and rapport with Andrew Luck in playing for the Colts last season was undeniable.
More meaningfully to investors in point-per-reception formats (PPR), Bradshaw was second only to Detroit's Theo Riddick in fantasy points per route run among NFL last season in ESPN PPR scoring. Riddick himself makes for a fine addition but isn't really under the radar enough for this piece considering he leads all running backs in receptions currently.
On a per-game basis, Bradshaw was 10th in the league among backs in ESPN PPR leagues with an average of 10.8 per game—just ahead of 2014 backfield studs like Lamar Miller and Jeremy Hill. There is no doubt that Frank Gore is still the lead horse for the Colts' early-down work, but given that Gore had a mere 11 receptions last season with a rich complement of snaps in San Francisco, Bradshaw could etch an important third-down role off the bat in Indy.
In a game as heavy home dogs with the week's highest projected point total, per Odds Shark, the Colts could trend very pass heavy, with such game script favoring Bradshaw if he is active for the team this Sunday night. Given such a strong 2014 in Indy and the team's need for receiving help in the backfield, I suggest adding Bradshaw where possible.
Ravens Rookie Running Back Buck Allen Is a Top Handcuff to Consider
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I'm not sure we even need a convincing pitch for the Ravens' rookie running back Javorius Allen past the fact that his nickname is Buck. Not only is Uncle Buck an incredible part of cinematic history, the nickname alone just feels right for a running back. "Buck runs for 12 yards" just sounds right.
That said, we actually do have some real reasoning behind endorsing this USC product as a fantasy prospect to consider rostering. For one, the Ravens just lost early-down understudy Lorenzo Taliaferro for the season to injury, per a report from ESPN's Jamison Hensley.
In a Bleacher Report scouting profile from May, Allen earned praise for being a "smooth glider" despite being a bigger back relative to his prospect peers, per MockDraftabale. From B/R's scouting report:
"A big runner with surprising hip flexibility and creative ability at the second level, Buck Allen has starter potential. Allen is a throwback workhorse who can take high carries and produce late in games, but he’s not “just” a power back. He has the agility to make defenders miss at the second level and can shake and juke his way through the hole. He’s a very good cutback runner tailor-made for a zone-blocking scheme and has the acceleration to pick up yards downhill. He is an asset as a receiver, and he showed both the traits and production (63 catches in two seasons) to prove himself as a capable option in the passing game.
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Now that he's the sole insurance policy past a small 30-year-old feature back in Justin Forsett, Allen merits ownership in far more than the 3 percent of ESPN leagues he's currently owned in. While he's merely a lottery ticket at this stage, Allen offers some real rewards if he were to ever become the Ravens' lead back. Plus, his name his Buck.
Houston's Cecil Shorts III Is Ready to Resume His Reception-Rich Role
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After this week we'll be 46.1 percent of the way into the fantasy regular season. At this stage of the season, most leagues find their waiver wire picked clean, while only the injured and statistically invisible appear available. In my main home league, a 12-team format with deep rosters, however, I'm considering adding a proven veteran in PPR formats as he likely returns to duty this week.
That player is Cecil Shorts III. I know, calm down, you thought I was going to say Cecil Shorts Jr., but we're going with the receiver on the Texans and not his father—who was his son's high school football coach in Cleveland. Before going down with an injury, Shorts was on pace for 88 receptions given his first four full games of play, as the Texans are on pace for the most passing attempts in the history of the NFL by more than 6 percent.
Let's try that again: the most passes in NFL history. The Texans rank 24th in the league in points per game allowed at 27 per, a generous allowance that suggests the team will continue to trend pass heavy even with the return of all-purpose stud running back Arian Foster.
You can still find Shorts available in well over 90 percent of ESPN leagues. With narrative street just around the corner, Shorts is likely to return to action this week, per Deepi Sidhu of the team's website, to face his former team, the Jaguars. With the more reliable right arm of Brian Hoyer behind center, at least for our selfish fantasy purposes, and with the Texans averaging nearly 50 passing attempts per game, Shorts makes for an interesting add in leagues that reward receptions.
Talented Dolphins Rookie DeVante Parker Offers Interesting Fantasy Upside
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Dolphins rookie receiver DeVante Parker earned high praise from Bleacher Report's resident NFL draft guru Matt Miller this past May, who deemed Parker a top-10 overall prospect of the 2015 class and one of the better red-zone prospects to enter the league in the past several drafts. From Parker's scouting report:
"Big, strong, polished and a nightmare in the red zone, DeVante Parker is worthy of a top-10 pick in this draft class. Parker would have competed to be a first-round pick in the 2014 draft class, but he decided to return to Louisville to get his degree.
He plays much bigger than his listed size, with excellent leaping skills, extension and body positioning to be a threat in the air. His concentration and hand strength are top-tier, and he’ll rarely lose a 50/50 ball to the defense or a drop.
Parker is a smart, instinctive, quarterback friendly receiver who works back to the ball and makes himself a big target when the pocket gets flushed.
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Here's the holdup: Parker has played on just 30.9 percent of the team's offensive snaps, according to Football Outsiders, fifth among the team's receivers on the season. Why, then, would we consider adding Parker before Week 6 kicks off? For one, the sheer mystery of a new coaching regime offers some potential for the team to actually leverage its top pick in NFL action.
In a video available on the Miami Herald's website, coach Dan Campbell recently said Parker is getting better with each practice, sharing that his rookie receiver's speed is noticeably coming back on the practice field. We're still not expecting a massive spike in usage for Parker in Week 6, but any uptick in touches could result in a big play from a player who averaged a gaudy 17.8 yards per catch in college.
All it takes is one big flash, a viral Vine-worthy highlight, to awaken the fantasy public to Parker's awesome potential. With mostly pedestrian talents in his way on the depth chart, I'm looking to stash Parker now before he pops, as he's still available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN leagues.
Managers in PPR Leagues Should Consider Denard Robinson as a Stash
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Not every waiver addition needs to offer tantalizing upside to prove worthy of our interest, as sometimes we really just need a spot start to help get past bye weeks and injuries as the season matures.
The Jaguars' Denard Robinson likely won't wow you with a volume of touches, but per Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union, the former Michigan signal-caller returned to practice this week, sharing with reporters, "I'm going to be able to do everything I would usually do," said Robinson.
What Robinson usually does is consume third-down duties on an offense that has attempted the 10th-most passes in the league, potentially offering some low-end flex interest in deeper point-per-reception formats. If nothing else, Robinson should be of interest to all investors in Jacksonville's rookie running back T.J. Yeldon, especially as the Alabama product was held out of practice with an apparent groin ailment, per the previously mentioned Florida Times-Union report.
If it's of any interest to Yeldon's investors or just those prospecting for potential injury outcomes, the rookie back claims the second-highest injury risk according to Sports Injury Predictor, with a 94 percent projected risk to miss at least one game this season. Only Arizona's Andre Ellington bears a higher risk rate according to the site's predictive model.
Tailback Toby Gerhart might actually start if Yeldon misses this week's tilt with the Houston Texans, but that title doesn't hold much weight considering Robinson out-snapped and outplayed Gerhart throughout last season. Is it the sexiest pickup? Nope. But with roster barnacles like the 49ers' Reggie Bush or the Vikings' Charles Johnson still owned in more leagues than Robinson (owned in just 8.2 percent of ESPN leagues), I'd rather have the true insurance policy for Yeldon.
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