Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Northwestern Wildcats Betting Odds, College Football Pick

After winning and covering in Madison a couple weeks ago, Iowa is 5-2 both straight up and against the spread over its last seven Big Ten road games. Northwestern, on the other hand, even after a victory and cover against Minnesota a couple weeks ago, is only 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS over its last nine conference home contests.

In a big game in the Big Ten West, the division-leading Hawkeyes battle the Wildcats Saturday afternoon in Evanston.

Point spread: The Hawkeyes opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.3-17.2 Hawkeyes

Why the Iowa Hawkeyes can cover the spread

Iowa is off to a 6-0 start to this season, 4-2 ATS, after beating Illinois last week 29-20. The Hawkeyes took the lead for good midway through the second quarter and held on from there, although they couldn't quite cover as 11-point home favorites. Iowa outrushed the Illini 278-46, as running back Jordan Canzeri went off for 256 yards on 43 carries, and won time of possession by a 36-24 margin. And usually numbers like that are good for covers.

Two weeks ago the Hawkeyes held the Badgers running game to just 86 yards in a 10-6 conference road victory. On the season the Iowa defense ranks 23rd overall, and fifth against the run, allowing just 78 yards per game. Now the Hawkeyes go against a Northwestern team that just got shut out at Michigan.

Why the Northwestern Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats won their first five games this season, including their season opener over Stanford and their Big Ten opener over Minnesota, but laid a big egg in a 38-0 loss at Michigan last week. Northwestern gave up a touchdown on the opening kickoff, and things just went downhill from there. No amount of disinfectant can scrub that stain clean; the Wildcats just have to put last week behind them and move on.

Two weeks ago Northwestern pitched a shutout of its own in a 27-0 victory over the Gophers. The Wildcats outrushed Minnesota that day 184-74, and they shockingly outrushed the Cardinal back in that Week 1 win 225-85. In fact, Northwestern has outrushed five of its six opponents this season by an average of almost 85 yards per game.

College football is an emotional game, and emotions can vary from week to week; after last week's debacle the Wildcats are prime candidates for a bounce-back effort.

Smart pick

This should be a tight one, as the spread indicates, but ultimately, Northwestern is a better team than it showed last week and will be eager to prove it. The smart money here rides with the Wildcats.

Betting trends

Northwestern is 6-2 SU in its eight games at home against Iowa.

The total has gone under in five of Northwestern's last six games.

Iowa is 6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.