St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 7, 2015

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) during the first half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Oct. 4, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The St. Louis Rams are developing a reputation for success against some of the best teams in the NFL. Over the last season-plus, St. Louis owns four combined victories over Seattle, Denver and Arizona, three teams who are a combined 9-3 so far this season.

But the Rams face a tough task this week, heading up to Lambeau Field to take on the undefeated Packers.

Point Spread: The Packers opened as 9.5-point favorites. The total was 46.5 early in the week.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Packers 29.8, Rams 14.4

Why the Rams Can Cover the Spread

The Rams just evened their records on the season at 2-2 both straight up and against the spread with a 24-22 upset on the road at Arizona last week.

St. Louis took a 7-0 lead less than two minutes into the game, turning a Cardinals fumble on the opening kickoff into a Nick Foles touchdown pass, and never trailed. Another Foles touchdown pass, his third of the day, gave the Rams a 24-15 lead with about eight minutes to go, and they held on from there for the outright victory as seven-point road dogs.

St. Louis gained 164 rushing yards to Arizona's 113 as rookie Todd Gurley ran for 146 yards, and the Rams won the turnover battle 3-0. Gurley also showed great maturity when he sat down inside the Cardinals' 10-yard line, wisely opting to run out the clock instead of going in for a score.

Stretching back to last season, St. Louis is 7-8 SU over its last 15 games, but four of those victories came against the Seahawks, Broncos and Cardinals.

Video Play Button
Videos you might like

Therefore, the Rams have shown they can play with and beat some of the best teams in the league.

Why the Packers Can Cover the Spread

The Pack is 4-0 both SU and ATS on the season after stymieing San Francisco last week 17-3 out in Santa Clara, California. Green Bay scored a touchdown on its first drive of the day as well as its first drive of the second half, and the defense did the rest, holding the 49ers to just 196 total yards.

The Packers gained 162 rushing yards to the Niners' 77, won the time-of-possession battle by roughly 13 minutes and sacked San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick six times.

That's how you avoid upsets and cover spreads on the road.

Green Bay began this season by covering six points at Chicago, then covered three points at home against Seattle, then covered six points at home against Kansas City.

The Packers own a solid claim as the best team in the league. As long as the spreads don't get too ridiculous, Green Bay remains a good bet on a weekly basis.

Smart Pick

St. Louis just won a big divisional game on the road, but asking the Rams for a repeat performance this week might be too much. The Packers, meanwhile, are clicking on offense, which is nothing unusual, but also getting great play on defense.

The smart money here resides with Green Bay.

Betting Trends

  • The Packers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Rams.
  • The Packers are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Rams are 2-6 SU in their eight games before the bye on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.