New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Philadelphia can be a tough place to play, sometimes even for the home team. The erratic Eagles know this, losing their last three home games and going 0-3 against the spread while hearing the collective invective from hostile home crowds. Philly faces the home music again this week, hosting Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Eagles opened as four-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.7-21.7 Eagles

Why the Saints can cover the spread

After opening this season 0-3, the Saints picked up their first victory last week, beating the Dallas Cowboys 26-20 in overtime and covering as three-point home favorites. New Orleans allowed the Cowboys to tie the score at 20-20 on a Brandon Weeden touchdown pass with just under two minutes to go, then it saw kicker Zach Hocker bounce what should have been the game-winning field goal off an upright with 12 seconds left in regulation.

But on the second play of overtime, Brees hit C.J. Spiller out of the backfield, and the former Clemson Tiger did the rest, rambling 80 yards down the sideline for the game-winning score.

New Orleans outgained Dallas 438-335, as Brees threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns without a pick, and Mark Ingram produced 128 yards from scrimmage. Brees is supposedly dealing with a sore wing, but he can still pick defenses apart. If the young Saints defense picks up its game, New Orleans could climb back into contention in the NFC South.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philly is coming off a tough 23-20 loss at Washington, its second close defeat of the season already. The Eagles trailed the Redskins 13-0 at the half but rallied to take a 20-16 lead on quarterback Sam Bradford's third touchdown pass of the day early in the fourth quarter. They lost on a Washington score with 26 seconds to go.

Philadelphia once again struggled to run the ball, gaining 87 yards on the day, 30 of which came on one play. But Bradford almost bailed the Eagles out, throwing for 270 yards without a pick and connecting on two beautiful long scoring hookups with Riley Cooper and Miles Austin.

Philly is still trying to figure out what to do with running back DeMarco Murray, but if it could just get last year's league rushing champion integrated, and perhaps keep its defense on the sidelines a little more, it could still be dangerous.

Smart pick

New Orleans came up with a much-needed win last week, while Philadelphia lost on the road. But the NFL is a tumultuous place; teams that are up one week are often down the next, and vice versa. That's why the smart money in this spot probably resides with the Eagles.

Betting trends

The Saints are 3-0 straight up and ATS in their last three games against the Eagles.

The Saints are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games in October.

The Eagles are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.