Week 5 NFL Picks: Spread Advice, Best Odds and Full Game Predictions

Although the NFL season is a short one, it's important to not get too caught up with recency bias when making your picks.

Every week in this league features some upsets, with top teams not living up to expectations. That doesn't mean the poor play is going to carry over into future games, regardless of what the public expects. In fact, a loss is often what is needed to truly kick a team into gear.

A number of teams in Week 5 are looking to bounce back from losses, and some of them will do so with favorable matchups. This storyline is just a small part of what should be an entertaining week of football.

Here is a look at full predictions for the weekend, along with a breakdown of the best bets against the spread.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	ATS Pick
Indianapolis Colts	20-14	Houston Texans	IND PK
Jacksonville Jaguars	28-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	JAX +3
Chicago Bears	20-24	Kansas City Chiefs	CHI +9.5
Washington Redskins	14-31	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -7.5
Seattle Seahawks	13-17	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -2.5
New Orleans Saints	24-34	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -4.5
Cleveland Browns	13-20	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -6.5
St. Louis Rams	17-27	Green Bay Packers	GB -9
Buffalo Bills	14-16	Tennessee Titans	TEN +2.5
Arizona Cardinals	31-24	Detroit Lions	ARI -2.5
New England Patriots	38-21	Dallas Cowboys	NE -8.5
Denver Broncos	24-21	Oakland Raiders	OAK +4.5
San Francisco 49ers	17-20	New York Giants	SF +7
Pittsburgh Steelers	27-17	San Diego Chargers	PIT +3

Note: All spread info courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Picks

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over Detroit Lions

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

After looking like an unstoppable force through the first three weeks, the Arizona Cardinals suffered their first loss of the season in Week 4. For the first time all year, the offense continually stalled in the red zone, and turnovers certainly didn't help.

Head coach Bruce Arians wasn't happy about losing a close game:

Despite the disappointment, the team is ready to move on and show that the first three weeks weren't a fluke.

"It hurts to lose a game at home and in the division," defensive end Calais Campbell said, via Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com. "It’s tough, but in the end, it is how you respond. You lose a game, and it sucks, and it happens. It’s the NFL. But we are still 3-1, and we are still sitting in a great situation."

This is a good mindset to have as the team continues its quest to get back to the playoffs, a destination that now seems out of reach for the Detroit Lions.

Although there was controversy attached to their latest defeat, the fact remains that the Lions are now 0-4 with numerous problems on both sides of the ball. Before the final drive of the game, the offense couldn't get anything going, with the run game to this point in the year (2.7 yards per carry) a joke.

Arizona has played much better football this season, and the offense could be even better with the expected return of Andre Ellington. He and Chris Johnson could provide balance alongside the elite passing attack Carson Palmer has led this season. 

The Lions have had a few bright spots this year, but they won't be enough to prevent an 0-5 start.

New England Patriots (-8.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Although Brandon Weeden played admirably Sunday, he still suffered his 10th defeat in a row as a starting quarterback. The Cowboys are struggling to overcome injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and in result handed the New Orleans Saints their first win of the season.

Even if there was some progress made, the New England Patriots will figure out a way to stall it after an extra week to prepare. The squad is coming off a bye in Week 4, which has usually led to success for Bill Belichick, according to Brandon George of the Daily Morning News:

The head coach is one of the best schemers in the game, which means he should be able to figure out how to slow down an offense consisting of Weeden, Joseph Randle and Terrance Williams.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots offense has shown it can beat almost anyone. The team currently averages 39.7 points and 446.3 total yards per game, both of which lead the NFL through four weeks. Even without playing in Week 4, Tom Brady still ranks fifth in the league with 1,112 passing yards and third with nine touchdowns.

At 38 years old, the quarterback is playing as well as he has in his entire career, spreading the ball around to Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and anyone else capable of making a play.

While this is a relatively large spread, the Patriots have shown a willingness to run up the score and shouldn't hesitate to blow out the Cowboys if they have the chance. They should get that opportunity and earn a double-digit win on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over San Diego Chargers

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Michael Vick did not look good in his start against the Baltimore Ravens, but the Pittsburgh Steelers will have 11 days to fix the problems before taking on the San Diego Chargers on Monday night.

The easiest change is simply getting the ball to Le'Veon Bell more often, especially after he showed the ability to make plays out of nothing in Week 4:

This play should also end up on his postseason highlight reel:

Bell could end up having a huge day against a San Diego defense that currently ranks dead last in the NFL with 4.9 rushing yards allowed per carry. Add this to the production the team should get out of Antonio Brown, and the Steelers won't need Vick to have a big day.

Meanwhile, the Chargers could struggle to move the ball offensively while dealing with numerous injuries along the offensive line. The replacements have performed adequately in pass protection, but the line isn't clearing any space for Melvin Gordon on the ground. This will hurt the team's ability to take advantage of the Steelers' weak run defense.

Even playing at home, where the Chargers are 2-0 this season, doesn't make this a good matchup for San Diego. Pittsburgh should be able to get back on track in Week 5 with a win, even without the injured Ben Roethlisberger.

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